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> ARCHIVE: CAT 2 HURRICANE ALEX, Saved for later searches! (2010 Atlantic Storms)
futureweatherman...
post Jun 27 2010, 08:13 PM
Post #1801




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996.9 mb
(~ 29.44 inHg)
Per the latest Recon so far.


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2010, 08:13 PM
Post #1802




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IMO, it seems Alex is tracking NW right now.


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futureweatherman...
post Jun 27 2010, 08:13 PM
Post #1803




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Starting to get organized now.


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2010, 08:13 PM
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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ Jun 27 2010, 08:13 PM) *
996.9 mb
(~ 29.44 inHg)
Per the latest Recon so far.



It means they are getting close to the center again. But from a different angle now.


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futureweatherman...
post Jun 27 2010, 08:15 PM
Post #1805




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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Jun 27 2010, 09:13 PM) *
It means they are getting close to the center again. But from a different angle now.

Only around 30mph right now...


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QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2010, 08:17 PM
Post #1806




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OBS 27:

Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Estimated Reduction Factor:
35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph) Tropical Storm


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123
post Jun 27 2010, 08:20 PM
Post #1807




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looks like Alex is a tropical storm again


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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2010, 08:21 PM
Post #1808




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NHC Visible satellite:

Attached Image


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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2010, 08:23 PM
Post #1809




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OBS 28:

Extrapolated Surface Pressure :990.7 mb (~ 29.26 inHg)

Even deeper.


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Removed_Member_AtownWxWatcher_*
post Jun 27 2010, 08:23 PM
Post #1810







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QUOTE(WhitePlainsNYBlizzard @ Jun 27 2010, 07:53 PM) *
When you mean weaken you mean wind wise.

The COC pressure as you know has not been affected at all.

And I do not think shear would be the culprit to the wind decrease, because otherwise the wind shear as its famous for, would have have sent all the cloud mass of the storm to a single side of it, and it would also have disrupted the structure of the system and its COC, plus making it naked. None of that has happened. So, I would discard shear as the culprit.

IMO, the wind weakening (decrease) as probably due to the inflow of evaporational latent heat energy cut off due to being over land and not over water, which is where that energy comes from.

What i mean by weaken is the winds decreased from 65-40 MPH but this was not till sometime between 6 am EST and 12 noon...Sleep time and wake time...and as well as weakened pressure wise which also shows a weakening..

If one were to go back and look at the IR representation after the time everyone else went to la la land..

Attached Image

You can see that landfall at this point has already occured..and then after this the representation on IR got even better where at 4 AM CDT or 5 AM EST that NHC was saying this had the appearance of a hurricane...and that IR was quite a few hours before the 5 AM update (around 1:45 AM)

This was at 4 AM

Attached Image

Quite impressive for being over land would you not say?

These are things that people did not see because they do not stay around for night shift.... laugh.gif


Now do you see why i say its not the land that caused the system to weaken?

This post has been edited by AtownWxWatcher: Jun 27 2010, 08:25 PM
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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2010, 08:26 PM
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Somebody from central Mexico to Texas may end up have a major problem with Alex.

Need to watch this carefully.


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futureweatherman...
post Jun 27 2010, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jun 27 2010, 09:23 PM) *
These are things that people did not see because they do not stay around for night shift.... laugh.gif
Now do you see why i say its not the land that caused the system to weaken?


QUOTE(Chicago Storm @ Jun 27 2010, 09:02 PM) *
I'm not sure why anyone wouldn't think 15hrs+ over land wouldn't effect a tropical system at least to some degree.
When pushing onshore it was in somewhat of a RI stage. This likely precluded weakening for the first few hours onshore which is why it held a great radar and satellite presentation for a while. After that period ended and the effects finally were being felt, we did see cloud tops warm, convection wane, and wind speeds drop.

As for it being down to 991MB now, it's a bit mind boggling...

Chicago Storm already answered your question....


--------------------


QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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NYCSuburbs
post Jun 27 2010, 08:28 PM
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Wow, Alex is getting even more impressive by the minute and it has barely even emerged into the GOM... it could easily reach hurricane status at this rate. I am even thinking of the possibility of a major hurricane, but this mainly depends on how much time Alex spends over the GOM and how much it is able to intensify, as its environment is favorable.
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123
post Jun 27 2010, 08:28 PM
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It now looks like it is moving almost due north but that could just be me.... blink.gif


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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2010, 08:29 PM
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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jun 27 2010, 08:23 PM) *
What i mean by weaken is the winds decreased from 65-40 MPH but this was not till sometime between 6 am EST and 12 noon...Sleep time and wake time...and as well as weakened pressure wise which also shows a weakening..

If one were to go back and look at the IR representation after the time everyone else went to la la land..

Attached Image

You can see that landfall at this point has already occured..and then after this the representation on IR got even better where at 4 AM CDT or 5 AM EST that NHC was saying this had the appearance of a hurricane...and that IR was quite a few hours before the 5 AM update (around 1:45 AM)

This was at 4 AM

Attached Image

Quite impressive for being over land would you not say?

These are things that people did not see because they do not stay around for night shift.... laugh.gif
Now do you see why i say its not the land that caused the system to weaken?



Yes I do.

For a decent while land basically did nothing to it. After while, especially this late morning into afternoon, then it did start to affect it.

And as for the shear, which is always a valid point to make, IMO in this case, it was not the culprit as the system's structure and COC remained and remains organized, energetic and is quite a power house.


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Removed_Member_sub900_*
post Jun 27 2010, 08:30 PM
Post #1816







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QUOTE(futureweatherman12 @ Jun 27 2010, 09:27 PM) *
Chicago Storm already answered your question....
As have many
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Blizzard09
post Jun 27 2010, 08:32 PM
Post #1817




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QUOTE(AtownWxWatcher @ Jun 27 2010, 09:23 PM) *
Now do you see why i say its not the land that caused the system to weaken?

Even the flattest land disrupts a storm to some degree. Tropical cyclones feed off warm ocean waters – if their source of energy is cut off, naturally they will eventually begin to deteriorate. Alex traversed at least 200 miles of land, and even though its weakening was initially delayed by an ongoing intensification phase, it is only logical to assume that this contributed in no small part to its ultimate loss of strength.

This post has been edited by Blizzard09: Jun 27 2010, 08:33 PM
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futureweatherman...
post Jun 27 2010, 08:33 PM
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Best I could find...
Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor:

45.0 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
Tropical Storm




--------------------


QUOTE(SEMIweather @ Oct 17 2010, 02:10 AM) *
i was lclicking on it going pelasejk not nicki minaj m-please not micni minaj hughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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The Day After To...
post Jun 27 2010, 08:34 PM
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45.0 knots (~ 51.7 mph)
Tropical Storm


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
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Phased Vort
post Jun 27 2010, 08:34 PM
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OBS 29:

SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 48 knots (~ 55.2 mph)

Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Using Estimated Reduction Factor:
45.0 knots (~ 51.7 mph) Tropical Storm

They found stronger surface winds.



So far Tropical Storm Alex

Winds: 55.2 or 51.7 MPH
Pressure: 990.7 mb


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