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> Jan. 3-6 Mid Atl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Please Post Last Minute Models & OBS
grandpaboy
post Jan 3 2018, 02:24 PM
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QUOTE(CentralJerseyCoast43 @ Jan 3 2018, 02:17 PM) *
[attachment=340671:20180103_123211.jpg]

Calm before the storm......I'll try to assist GPB with some beachfront shots if I can get down there tomorrow...

Notice the sand dredge barge out off of Mantoloking used for the beach replenishment....guess it will be riding it out....Yikes

Been reading since day one, and the usual core group has been awesome. SO much knowledge.



I have feeling they are going to block access to all the shore areas tomorrow, hopefully not...but we'll see


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whats going to happen when weather is predictable:...-me
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ShaneP3
post Jan 3 2018, 02:23 PM
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Virga returns with the occasional flake making it down here about sixty miles due south of Roanoke
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Undertakerson
post Jan 3 2018, 02:24 PM
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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Jan 3 2018, 02:19 PM) *
I think sowhatshappening made a good point in the disco thread. There's going to be very intense frontogenic forcing on the west side of the low. The closer the LP moves to the coast, the more the coastal areas prosper. Have to see where that sets up but I'd be willing to be more aggressive with totals on the eastern envelope of the snowfall zones, particularly LI to SNE but even down to SNJ and delmarva.

Just made note of the 700m raging fronto shown on the SPC Meso maps. Not THE most intense I've ever seen but not too much a shade lighter TBH
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avsguy01
post Jan 3 2018, 02:24 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 3 2018, 02:20 PM) *
Meso

Surface low continues to consolidate



No longer elongated

Down to 1004

Just wow.... Can't believe it's actually coming together to perfection for what the east coast was dealt as far as position early on.
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Supertyphoon
post Jan 3 2018, 02:24 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 3 2018, 02:21 PM) *
sorry bruh. what did you get to eat on the flight? I know you're in first class.


You are becoming a pretty good spy know the seat number?

Egg White Omelette
Yogurt
Fruit
Black coffee

And yes, just upped my DC forecast to 1-2


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bucikaroo
post Jan 3 2018, 02:25 PM
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Could someone answer a question which probably already been answered before is this a fast moving storm any way it could slow down
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PlanetMaster
post Jan 3 2018, 02:27 PM
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To those posting nullschool images, those are NOT real time observations. Its the data extrapolated from last nights GFS run, not even this mornings. It takes about 4 - 6 hours to program in a new run data.

You can click the forward arrow and see the run in its entirety.



Interesting 3 low look at 7 am tomorrow east of AC...lol




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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 3 2018, 02:27 PM
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QUOTE(bucikaroo @ Jan 3 2018, 02:25 PM) *
Could someone answer a question which probably already been answered before is this a fast moving storm any way it could slow down


nope. she flying bruh. but packing a punch.


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grandpaboy
post Jan 3 2018, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(bucikaroo @ Jan 3 2018, 02:25 PM) *
Could someone answer a question which probably already been answered before is this a fast moving storm any way it could slow down



Short answer...no..


It's pretty much up and away once it hits OBX... hence snow totals not be epic...


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RochesterSnow
post Jan 3 2018, 02:28 PM
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QUOTE(morpheus27 @ Jan 3 2018, 02:25 PM) *
While I realize it's just one factor in a much larger puzzle, surface winds appear to be somewhat stronger around the circulation closer to the coast. Shift in position is also apparent.

Implications down the road? Good/bad?

[attachment=340676:windmap.png]

[attachment=340677:windmap2.png]



Maybe related?

Attached Image


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 3 2018, 02:29 PM
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Now I can honestly say I've never seen this type of pressure falls



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Undertakerson
post Jan 3 2018, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 3 2018, 02:27 PM) *
nope. she flying bruh. but packing a punch.

more flying drop kick than power slam, you say?
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 3 2018, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Jan 3 2018, 02:24 PM) *
You are becoming a pretty good spy know the seat number?

Egg White Omelette
Yogurt
Fruit
Black coffee

And yes, just upped my DC forecast to 1-2”


ah-ha! I done knew it bruh.

right now HRRR is projected LP outside of Nam's guidance. so early for HRRR im sorry all

This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jan 3 2018, 02:32 PM


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Supertyphoon
post Jan 3 2018, 02:30 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Jan 3 2018, 02:29 PM) *
Short answer...no..
It's pretty much up and away once it hits OBX... hence snow totals not be epic...



A possible wrinkle in speed could be an attempted capture


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On the left...
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Forecast Challenge 2017-18 update:

Later this season!
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Undertakerson
post Jan 3 2018, 02:31 PM
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QUOTE(RochesterSnow @ Jan 3 2018, 02:28 PM) *
Maybe related?

Attached Image



QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 3 2018, 02:29 PM) *
Now I can honestly say I've never seen this type of pressure falls


related
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morpheus27
post Jan 3 2018, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Jan 3 2018, 02:27 PM) *
To those posting nullschool images, those are NOT real time observations. Its the data extrapolated from last nights GFS run, not even this mornings. It takes about 4 - 6 hours to program in a new run data.

You can click the forward arrow and see the run in its entirety.



Interesting 3 low look at 7 am tomorrow east of AC...lol


Well now, that's embarrassing. Thanks for the clarification/correction.


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2012-2013 Winter Season snowfall: 37.6 inches
2011-2012 Winter Season snowfall: 3.8 inches
2010-2011 Winter Season snowfall: 56.5 inches
2009-2010 Winter Season snowfall: 59.0 inches
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PAXpatriot
post Jan 3 2018, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 3 2018, 02:17 PM) *
WWA goes all the way to south mountain I see. Sterling has handled this as well as could be expected.


South Mountain Barrier is alive and well, it would seem.
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RobB
post Jan 3 2018, 02:32 PM
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Light snows reported in the Virginia Beach area.
Attached thumbnail(s)
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 3 2018, 02:33 PM
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H850

Looks amazing



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 3 2018, 02:33 PM


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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 3 2018, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 3 2018, 02:29 PM) *
more flying drop kick than power slam, you say?


bingo. and man those pressure falls are really something, anywhere that snow is flying is going to feel like a blizzard.


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