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> Jan. 3-6 Mid Atl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Please Post Last Minute Models & OBS
grandpaboy
post Jan 3 2018, 02:34 PM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Jan 3 2018, 02:30 PM) *
A possible wrinkle in speed could be an attempted capture


Yea that would be just about the only thing ...

No blocking though


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The Day After To...
post Jan 3 2018, 02:34 PM
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Latest HRRR looks like I would miss out on most of the precipitation shield...still have my doubts on how "good" its going to be for SENY, lol. Such is the way it goes.


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"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
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WeatherKidd
post Jan 3 2018, 02:34 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Jan 3 2018, 02:24 PM) *
I have feeling they are going to block access to all the shore areas tomorrow, hopefully not...but we'll see


I'm in Longport, NJ -about 4 miles south of Atlantic City - and 2 blocks to the beach. I'll keep everyone posted with weather conditions here as they develop.
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PlanetMaster
post Jan 3 2018, 02:35 PM
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QUOTE(morpheus27 @ Jan 3 2018, 02:32 PM) *
Well now, that's embarrassing. Thanks for the clarification/correction.


Actually glad that it isn't real time cause that run is pot full of lows. Look at the WV, Meso or satellite and see the one true low we have now, much better then those NS runs.


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The Day After To...
post Jan 3 2018, 02:37 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Jan 3 2018, 02:35 PM) *
Actually glad that it isn't real time cause that run is pot full of lows. Look at the WV, Meso or satellite and see the one true low we have now, much better then those NS runs.

One low to rule them all,
One low to find them;
One low to phase them all
And in the winter bomb them


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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CentralJerseySno...
post Jan 3 2018, 02:38 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Jan 3 2018, 03:24 PM) *
I have feeling they are going to block access to all the shore areas tomorrow, hopefully not...but we'll see


I hope not since I live down by the shore (Tuckerton) right now and unfortunately work in an industry where there are no snow days. I'd like to go home after work smile.gif Although I did see mount holly bumped it's snow totals down the shore ...
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 3 2018, 02:37 PM
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850 and pressure falls have to have AFD offices scrambling. closed, negative and those falls on NC wow. and weve got snow falling in charlotte, nc.


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Supertyphoon
post Jan 3 2018, 02:37 PM
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How does Radar/sat positioning of surface low compare to HRRR initialization???


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albanyweather
post Jan 3 2018, 02:38 PM
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Thanks for keeping me updated bruhs as I don't want to put a but load of favorites on my work machine.


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Snowfall 2017-2018: 66.6"
2016-2017: 58.7"
2015-2016: 13.1"
2014-2015: 72.1"
2013-2014: 79"
2012-2013: 48.8"
2011-2012: 23.3"
2010-2011: 80.2"
Seasonal Normal: 60.3"
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grinder71
post Jan 3 2018, 02:40 PM
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Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
236 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018


PAZ058-059-065-066-040345-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0002.180104T0500Z-180104T1800Z/
Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Pottsville, Lebanon, York, and Lancaster
236 PM EST Wed Jan 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
1 PM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Plan on slippery road conditions. Total
snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected.

* WHERE...Schuylkill, Lebanon, York and Lancaster Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 1 PM EST Thursday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for reduced visibilities at
times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways. Visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and
traffic conditions.
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Richie14
post Jan 3 2018, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherKidd @ Jan 3 2018, 03:34 PM) *
I'm in Longport, NJ -about 4 miles south of Atlantic City - and 2 blocks to the beach. I'll keep everyone posted with weather conditions here as they develop.

Hey there neighbor. I'm right in ventnor on the beach block and it seems like we are in a pretty good spot. Nice to see another Atlantic city area member!
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RobB
post Jan 3 2018, 02:41 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 3 2018, 02:37 PM) *
850 and pressure falls have to have AFD offices scrambling. closed, negative and those falls on NC wow. and weve got snow falling in charlotte, nc.



So far Charlotte is just reporting clouds. Probably some virga action..

Not that this takes away from your main point.

This post has been edited by RobB: Jan 3 2018, 02:41 PM
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Vorticity-
post Jan 3 2018, 02:41 PM
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Seems like this is going to start ahead of schedule for my area.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 3 2018, 02:42 PM
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QUOTE(Supertyphoon @ Jan 3 2018, 02:37 PM) *
How does Radar/sat positioning of surface low compare to HRRR initialization???


precip is a good bit more north on radar then hrrr and westward I'd say as well. surface low, hrrr looks east of current position.


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djroz24
post Jan 3 2018, 02:43 PM
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What is the arrival time for nyc metro
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RochesterSnow
post Jan 3 2018, 02:42 PM
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From Cranky:

Attached Image

Incredible how fast it came together.


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The Day After To...
post Jan 3 2018, 02:44 PM
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I don't think these last minute trends will save me, lol. Still...for you guys who will make out, have fun, enjoy it, and stay safe!


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"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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Swipe
post Jan 3 2018, 02:44 PM
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QUOTE(djroz24 @ Jan 3 2018, 02:43 PM) *
What is the arrival time for nyc metro

Between 12:33-12:36 am, sorry for the huge window.
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RobB
post Jan 3 2018, 02:44 PM
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Radar w/ METARs
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 3 2018, 02:44 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 3 2018, 02:41 PM) *
So far Charlotte is just reporting clouds. Probably some virga action..

Not that this takes away from your main point.


yup, I have a camera up on my computer which I thought was from Charlotte. but now looking at location on map its a good bit further east.


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