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> Feb 1-3rd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
PoconoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 07:28 AM
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This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 29 2018, 02:37 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 07:34 AM
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shaulov4
post Jan 17 2018, 08:24 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 07:28 AM) *






Hey Poc you sleepin these days? laugh.gif
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Solstice
post Jan 17 2018, 08:32 AM
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Yes, I did convert my phone into UTC time. Bruh

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--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Mafa
post Jan 17 2018, 08:33 AM
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Honest question. How many of your BSR storm predictions have come to fruition?
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 08:35 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Jan 17 2018, 08:24 AM) *
Hey Poc you sleepin these days? laugh.gif


Well, in fact


Sometimes, I wonder if others sleep too long smile.gif


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 08:46 AM
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QUOTE(Mafa @ Jan 17 2018, 08:33 AM) *
Honest question. How many of your BSR storm predictions have come to fruition?


They are not MY predictions as I do not own nature


And In fact they are not predictions at all...

I am just a user of their pattern recognition capabilities


They are pattern recognition tools, verification can be found here as far as I can tell http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018_Verify.php


And there are papers which are peer reviewed that show success rate of up to 70% at lead times as great as almost three weeks.

If you are so inclined into its accuracy I figured you would have seen the renken et al papers on the subject.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Jan 17 2018, 09:25 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 08:50 AM
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I do not like speaking for JDRenken on this subject in case I do not get the details or accuracy correct. So maybe he will stop by and elaborate.


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jdrenken
post Jan 17 2018, 09:09 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 07:50 AM) *
I do not like speaking for JDRenken on this subject in case I do not get the details or accuracy correct. So maybe he will stop by and elaborate.


My paper showed you are correct in that we were able to predict 2sd events 17-21 days in advance 70% of the time.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/

You can also look at the verification pages that cranky keeps.

2017
http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2017_Verify.php

2018
http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018_Verify.php


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Mafa
post Jan 17 2018, 10:06 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 17 2018, 09:09 AM) *
My paper showed you are correct in that we were able to predict 2sd events 17-21 days in advance 70% of the time.

https://www.hindawi.com/journals/amete/2017/1765428/

You can also look at the verification pages that cranky keeps.

2017
http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2017_Verify.php

2018
http://www.stormhamster.com/bsr/2018_Verify.php



Great, thanks! I'm a meteorologist turned math teacher. I still want to stay fresh with the times incase I change my career again. BSR, EAR, etc. are relatively new to me. Didn't learn that 15 years ago.

Sorry for the off topic
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Storms R us
post Jan 17 2018, 10:42 AM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Jan 17 2018, 08:24 AM) *
Hey Poc you sleepin these days? laugh.gif



Looks like a nice rain maker.
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 11:10 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 17 2018, 10:42 AM) *
Looks like a nice rain maker.


Rinse and repeat


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JDClapper
post Jan 17 2018, 11:22 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 17 2018, 10:42 AM) *
Looks like a nice rain maker.


Educated guess here, but I'd bet 90% of your posts include the word rain.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 17 2018, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jan 17 2018, 11:22 AM) *
Educated guess here, but I'd bet 90% of your posts include the word rain.


that might be a little light.
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CIWeather
post Jan 17 2018, 12:14 PM
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A little OT and nit-picky, but I was kind of laughing at the title of the thread having a new day... the 3nd instead of the 3rd laugh.gif


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 17 2018, 12:33 PM
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Wayyyyyyyy out there but Im gonna throw a dart at the dart board (map) and say we get a classic GLC pattern changer at this time.


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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 17 2018, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(CIWeather @ Jan 17 2018, 02:14 PM) *
A little OT and nit-picky, but I was kind of laughing at the title of the thread having a new day... the 3nd instead of the 3rd laugh.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 17 2018, 12:40 PM
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QUOTE(CIWeather @ Jan 17 2018, 12:14 PM) *
A little OT and nit-picky, but I was kind of laughing at the title of the thread having a new day... the 3nd instead of the 3rd laugh.gif


you gotta a problem with thircond?
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RobB
post Jan 17 2018, 01:04 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 17 2018, 12:40 PM) *
you gotta a problem with thircond?



biggrin.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 02:09 PM
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And this will stay as 3nd

Thirdcond it is and thirdcond it will be!


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