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> Feb 1-3rd MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
avsguy01
post Jan 17 2018, 02:36 PM
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I'm sorry but why do we have a thread for a threat that is more than or at least a minimal of 15 days out.....seems kinda of pointless IMO. Looks like a......anybody's guess.
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JDClapper
post Jan 17 2018, 02:57 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 17 2018, 02:36 PM) *
I'm sorry but why do we have a thread for a threat that is more than or at least a minimal of 15 days out.....seems kinda of pointless IMO. Looks like a......anybody's guess.


Yes, you should be sorry.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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PoconoSnow
post Jan 17 2018, 03:00 PM
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Apology accepted


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jdrenken
post Jan 17 2018, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 17 2018, 01:36 PM) *
I'm sorry but why do we have a thread for a threat that is more than or at least a minimal of 15 days out.....seems kinda of pointless IMO. Looks like a......anybody's guess.


Well...per the guidelines, it can be created since it has support with the BSR & GFS snapshot of snow in PA.

QUOTE
11. No Wishcasting: Our Community is not a place to post "theoretical" or "perfect storm" predictions. "Wishcasting" is hoping for extreme weather outside of the consensus forecast, often beyond the typical computer forecast model accuracy limit (including "bittercasting" (which is saying "It won't happen" with no reason). If you can't support your forecast with the parameters of at least one forecast model, or quotes from other forecasters, you shouldn't post it. If you are going to explain your forecast by citing other websites / meteorologists that agree with you, you MUST source them (see #16).


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Solstice
post Jan 17 2018, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jan 17 2018, 02:57 PM) *
Yes, you should be sorry.

laugh.gif bruh

QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 03:00 PM) *
Apology accepted

x2

This post has been edited by Solstice: Jan 17 2018, 03:05 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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phillyfan
post Jan 17 2018, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 17 2018, 02:36 PM) *
I'm sorry but why do we have a thread for a threat that is more than or at least a minimal of 15 days out.....seems kinda of pointless IMO. Looks like a......anybody's guess.

Even better it's a 2 page thread already. laugh.gif


This is way way too far out...


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Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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bigben89
post Jan 17 2018, 03:30 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jan 17 2018, 03:09 PM) *
Even better it's a 2 page thread already. laugh.gif
This is way way too far out...


I'd like to see:

>Current Weather - United States > Long Range Modeling
>Current Weather - United States > Storms Less Than 3 Days Away

I believe it would help clean up a lot of the clutter.
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jdrenken
post Jan 17 2018, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(bigben89 @ Jan 17 2018, 02:30 PM) *
I'd like to see:

>Current Weather - United States > Long Range Modeling
>Current Weather - United States > Storms Less Than 3 Days Away

I believe it would help clean up a lot of the clutter.


It would create more clutter as you would have more than two threads per storm even before the observation thread.


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QUOTE
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It's a work in progress!

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zigoapex
post Jan 17 2018, 04:06 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 17 2018, 03:00 PM) *
Apology accepted
laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Removed_Member_rtcemc_*
post Jan 17 2018, 04:07 PM
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Well since we are posting things 'we would like", I would like to see Poc, Clap, and UT continue to do what they are doing and open these long range threads, and more people do what I do and stay out of them so as not clutter them up with stuff that I don't know too much about. That way I can read and learn if I choose. So if you don't think they should open threads this early, and don't want to learn, perhaps just don't go on the threads. I think it is pretty cool to see what they saw far out, see how the BSR panned out, and then see the end result, but that's just me.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 17 2018, 04:10 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 17 2018, 05:37 PM) *
It would create more clutter as you would have more than two threads per storm even before the observation thread.


I dont know why we just dont do a general discussion thread for each season and then once a storm actually comes within a range of say 5 days then we create a thread and move on with the discussion thread for futher down the road. Instead of having 2 threads for one time period when it really ends up being one as we saw with this one. Just a thought. At least then we have a better catalog thread of discussions instead of having 5 or 6 different threads all 2 days apart for the next 2 weeks with maybe half coming to fruition.

Feel it may be somehow confusing to people of an idea like this but if we throw in the little extra brain power we may just be able to do it lol

This post has been edited by so_whats_happening: Jan 17 2018, 04:11 PM


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stretchct
post Jan 17 2018, 04:28 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jan 17 2018, 04:10 PM) *
I dont know why we just dont do a general discussion thread for each season and then once a storm actually comes within a range of say 5 days then we create a thread and move on with the discussion thread for futher down the road. Instead of having 2 threads for one time period when it really ends up being one as we saw with this one. Just a thought. At least then we have a better catalog thread of discussions instead of having 5 or 6 different threads all 2 days apart for the next 2 weeks with maybe half coming to fruition.

Feel it may be somehow confusing to people of an idea like this but if we throw in the little extra brain power we may just be able to do it lol

You mean like the long range thread?

edit: sorry, not trying to be snarky. Looking at the guidelines, individual storms can have long range 8-15 days subtitles. I guess anything beyond that would be the Long range thread, though I like your idea of having 10-15 days out be more in something like the long range thread. It does get confusing. Heck, I think I may be posting the wrong storm in the 23rd to 26th thread now.

This post has been edited by stretchct: Jan 17 2018, 04:36 PM


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First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Jan 17 2018, 04:41 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 17 2018, 12:40 PM) *
you gotta a problem with thircond?

My stomach is hurting I just laughed so hard! How did I miss this before.


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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avsguy01
post Jan 17 2018, 04:42 PM
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I disagree, but there is plenty of time to talk about this one....jeesh patience folks. x3 taking my sorry back.
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KENNYP2339
post Jan 17 2018, 05:47 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 17 2018, 04:42 PM) *
I disagree, but there is plenty of time to talk about this one..

How much snow am I going to get? lolololol
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 17 2018, 06:37 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 17 2018, 06:28 PM) *
You mean like the long range thread?

edit: sorry, not trying to be snarky. Looking at the guidelines, individual storms can have long range 8-15 days subtitles. I guess anything beyond that would be the Long range thread, though I like your idea of having 10-15 days out be more in something like the long range thread. It does get confusing. Heck, I think I may be posting the wrong storm in the 23rd to 26th thread now.


Haha if you wanna consider that sure but im just not a fan of going into a sub forum thread to talk about something when it inevitably comes back to Current US forum. To be honest many of times I tend to see more talk about longer term patterns across the country on monthly and seasonal scales and every once in awhile a storm idea pops up from postings of BSR/EAR stuff. I would love long range to consist of those teles and others influence during that time period and have the storm discussion in the pattern stay to discussion in here.

Whatevs lets just throw info out there and see what happens.


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jordan4385
post Jan 17 2018, 06:56 PM
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I think that given the circumstances, a Presidents day 2018 blizzard thread would even have Merit.

This post has been edited by jordan4385: Jan 17 2018, 06:56 PM


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bingobobbo
post Jan 17 2018, 06:58 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 17 2018, 12:40 PM) *
you gotta a problem with thircond?



The thircond must be noon the 2nd to noon the 3rd.


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Storms R us
post Jan 17 2018, 09:26 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Jan 17 2018, 04:42 PM) *
I disagree, but there is plenty of time to talk about this one....jeesh patience folks. x3 taking my sorry back.


Our time is running short for winter in our net of the woods as our normal temps will start to rise as JD was pointing out for PA looks good. Models are showing rain and the forecast are for rain in our neck of the woods for the next coupe disturbances. Maybe we get more snow and maybe not but at least we received more than others this winter and the last couple. The news was showing the south with lots of snow something that hasn't been witnessed in a very long time.
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 17 2018, 09:56 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Jan 17 2018, 09:26 PM) *
Our time is running short for winter in our net of the woods as our normal temps will start to rise as JD was pointing out for PA looks good. Models are showing rain and the forecast are for rain in our neck of the woods for the next coupe disturbances. Maybe we get more snow and maybe not but at least we received more than others this winter and the last couple. The news was showing the south with lots of snow something that hasn't been witnessed in a very long time.

Indeed the "average" highs are on the rise however in no way shape or form does that mean winter is running short for your neck of the woods, not in the least.

Regardless whether the average highs are beginning to rise PLENTY of cold and even VERY cold air can easily invade your neck of the woods and as well stick around for awhile Storms. Not at all saying this will be the outcome, more so just saying we have quite a bit of time left for Old Man Winter to lay it to us!
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