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> January 25-28 Plains/MW/GL Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
joseph507123
post Jan 17 2018, 03:40 PM
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Another storm with a path like the storm before this one.

GFS


CMC part 1

part 2



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2018

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Tornado Watches: 0

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 1

Tornado Warnings: 0

Largest hail: .25''

Strongest Wind Gust: NA

Warmest Temperature: 102F

90F+ days: 14

Highest Heat Index: 108F

Heat advisories: 6

Excessive Heat Warnings: 1
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BuckeyeDiva
post Jan 18 2018, 12:47 PM
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Hello, pretty.
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"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." (George Carlin)
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ingyball
post Jan 18 2018, 01:07 PM
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I'd take that 12z CMC run. However I'd feel safer having that low being 50-100 or so miles SE instead of relying on a transfer to prevent WAA.
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cary67
post Jan 18 2018, 02:29 PM
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QUOTE(BuckeyeDiva @ Jan 18 2018, 11:47 AM) *
Hello, pretty.

GFS perspective. Although I think Grace mentioned you have the BSR indicating something favorable for your area in this timeframe. The GFS maybe out to lunch.

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OSUWx2
post Jan 18 2018, 02:53 PM
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Not surprising, but the Euro has a middle solution between the GFS/CMC.


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BuckeyeDiva
post Jan 18 2018, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 18 2018, 02:29 PM) *
GFS perspective. Although I think Grace mentioned you have the BSR indicating something favorable for your area in this timeframe. The GFS maybe out to lunch.


Oh, fully aware the GFS says no soup for me. I have appreciated the CMC a lot this winter, though. It seems to be sniffing out patterns and general tracks far better than it has in years past. But yes.. Grace has kept mentioning this time period as something to watch.


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"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." (George Carlin)
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cary67
post Jan 18 2018, 03:42 PM
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QUOTE(OSUWx2 @ Jan 18 2018, 01:53 PM) *
Not surprising, but the Euro has a middle solution between the GFS/CMC.



Normally would love the Euro on my side but this year not so much.
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OSUWx2
post Jan 18 2018, 08:01 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 18 2018, 03:42 PM) *
Normally would love the Euro on my side but this year not so much.

Agreed 100%. It performed the worst with the 12-13th storm here in the OV.
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MIDMIWeather
post Jan 20 2018, 03:28 PM
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First wave is way north, second wave develops.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 20 2018, 05:13 PM
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Euro puts down 12"+ in the Toledo/Detroit areas, 10" in Fort Wayne, 6" in Indy, 4" in Dayton

Something to watch at least.

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ValpoSnow
post Jan 20 2018, 06:10 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 20 2018, 04:13 PM) *
Euro puts down 12"+ in the Toledo/Detroit areas, 10" in Fort Wayne, 6" in Indy, 4" in Dayton

Something to watch at least.


Would be interested in the snowfall map, seems an odd track to give Dayton 4".
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ingyball
post Jan 21 2018, 05:41 AM
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I just saw the 12z JMA, wish I hadn't seen it lol. 0z Euro is also really good for parts of Illinois and Indiana.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 22 2018, 01:40 PM
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Anyone with Euro precip map access able to fill us in on what happens between hour 144-168? Looks interesting on the 24 hour intervals, just can't tell what happens in-between frames. Thanks in advance!
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 23 2018, 09:40 AM
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More than a handful of very interesting EPS members from the 0z run last night...Some have a heavy band of snow through IL/IN/MI, some through OH, some further east & some with no heavy snow at all. Something to watch. Temps are going to be marginal, but a heavy band of wet snow could setup somewhere Sunday afternoon/night.

Some timing differences, but here are the MSLP anomalies on the EPS, GEFS, GEPS:

This post has been edited by JymGanahlRocks: Jan 23 2018, 10:03 AM
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 09:51 AM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 22 2018, 01:40 PM) *
Anyone with Euro precip map access able to fill us in on what happens between hour 144-168? Looks interesting on the 24 hour intervals, just can't tell what happens in-between frames. Thanks in advance!

Surface low at h144 and h156 as well as total accumulated snowfall from the 00z Euro
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 09:53 AM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 23 2018, 09:40 AM) *
More than a handful of very interesting EPS members from the 0z run last night...Some have a heavy band of snow through IL/IN/MI, some through OH, some further east & some with no heavy snow at all. Something to watch. Temps are going to marginal, but a heavy band of wet snow could setup somewhere Sunday afternoon/night.

Some timing differences, but here are the MSLP anomalies on the EPS, GEFS, GEPS:

Yup, there were ~6 members and the OP that look nice for MBY. Definitely keeping an eye on this time frame.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 23 2018, 10:12 AM
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NAVGEM

This post has been edited by JymGanahlRocks: Jan 23 2018, 10:18 AM
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 23 2018, 10:16 AM
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Canadian Op has a decent storm, but cold air is seriously lacking
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 23 2018, 10:42 AM
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didnt even notice this until now, guess it's time to start re-engaging
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 23 2018, 10:58 AM
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would be nice to see the GFS bring the storm back though
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