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> January 25-28 Plains/MW/GL Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 23 2018, 11:26 AM
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Yeah, 12z GFS is a no-go
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 23 2018, 11:50 AM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 23 2018, 11:26 AM) *
Yeah, 12z GFS is a no-go

given how the ECM has already performed pretty poor as of late to the naked eye, I'll be keeping an eye on how this finishes out for comparisons sake for future storms
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 12:07 PM
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GFS vs CMC. There's yer problem!
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 23 2018, 12:07 PM) *
GFS vs CMC. There's yer problem!

Comparison to the 00z Euro ... seems pretty clear the GFS is out to lunch as it has been much of the season.
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 12:11 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 23 2018, 11:50 AM) *
given how the ECM has already performed pretty poor as of late to the naked eye, I'll be keeping an eye on how this finishes out for comparisons sake for future storms

The ECM hasn't been as great as years past, but it's still knocking the socks off the GFS. IMHO the GEM has been a pleasant surprise this season.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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RobB
post Jan 23 2018, 12:28 PM
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I'll post 12Z GEFS images here as I did in the NE thread:




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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 12:35 PM
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Via morning AFD out of Pittsburgh ... seems like they haven't looked past the GFS.

QUOTE
.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
808 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The advance and passage of the aforementioned trough is timed to
degrade conditions via rain for the weekend, and cool temperature
back toward the average for the start of the new week.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 12:38 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 23 2018, 12:35 PM) *
Via morning AFD out of Pittsburgh ... seems like they haven't looked past the GFS.

Alternatively, the AFD out of State College, PA prefers a non-GFS solution ...

QUOTE
.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1154 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Uncertainty surrounding the timing and amplitude of the upper
trough moving from the Rockies through the Central and Eastern
U.S. continues to plague the long term forecast with
significant sensible weather implications by later in the
weekend. Followed WPC preference favoring blends toward a
slower, non-GFS solution. This would result in a stronger wave
of low pressure to develop over the Appalachians and bring the
potential for significant rain or mixed precipitation Sunday
into Monday. The greatest confidence is for the period to start
dry (Friday) with temps moderating to above average levels.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 12:45 PM
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German ICON has an impressive solution for the OHV. Difficult to say how much falls as frozen QPF, but definitely a system worth paying attention to.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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RobB
post Jan 23 2018, 12:53 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 23 2018, 12:45 PM) *
German ICON has an impressive solution for the OHV. Difficult to say how much falls as frozen QPF, but definitely a system worth paying attention to.


Lacking cold air...

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RobB
post Jan 23 2018, 12:55 PM
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Many models pointing to some substantial precip totals for some in this thread, just doesn't look like the best setup for any worthwhile frozen, though this will be fleshed out as we draw closer either way.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 01:07 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 23 2018, 12:55 PM) *
Many models pointing to some substantial precip totals for some in this thread, just doesn't look like the best setup for any worthwhile frozen, though this will be fleshed out as we draw closer either way.

It is still January so any major storm system should pull in enough cold for wintery weather Northwest of the low track


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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RobB
post Jan 23 2018, 01:30 PM
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12Z hour 144 Euro
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 23 2018, 03:51 PM
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ECM is pretty worthless lol, looks like the GFS
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 23 2018, 05:05 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 23 2018, 03:51 PM) *
ECM is pretty worthless lol, looks like the GFS

There's one good ensemble member for the OHV (below) and somewhat more support for a decent Apps runner type solution, but definitely a shift east relative to the 00z run.
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 24 2018, 10:51 PM
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Interesting solution out of the 00z ICON, slow moving inverted trough could drop several inches across northeast half of Ohio and western PA and WV as well.
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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RobB
post Jan 27 2018, 01:10 PM
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12Z Euro tries to bring a bit of light snow IMBY....
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 27 2018, 01:55 PM
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.
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Juniorrr
post Jan 27 2018, 01:57 PM
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Been following this for the past few days, someone will get lucky and get 1-3" with this little norlun type feature.
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snowlover2
post Jan 27 2018, 04:47 PM
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18z GFS is a little more robust especially as it enters SE IN/SW OH.


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# of T-Storm Watches:

# of T-Storm Warnings:1

# of Tornado Watches:2

# of Tornado Warnings:1
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