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> January 25-28 Plains/MW/GL Winter Storm, Cogitation: Long Range [8-15 Days Out] FORECAST
cary67
post Jan 29 2018, 10:31 AM
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QUOTE(easton229 @ Jan 29 2018, 08:30 AM) *
So all of a sudden DTX pulled the trigger on a WSW for a few counties in SEMI with totals of 6-10" blink.gif No idea where this came from....

The proverbial diamond in the rough. That should put DTX comfortably over 30" for the year. Conjuring this stuff up out of thin air. I think Valpo went on vacation ..he couldnt take it anymore.
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Torontoweather
post Jan 29 2018, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(xy0cmiller6yx @ Jan 29 2018, 11:25 AM) *
Hope this works. Might have to click through the pages, but currently, the flint report is on page 5

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1

Thanks! Works great smile.gif


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pros3lyte
post Jan 29 2018, 11:02 AM
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QUOTE(easton229 @ Jan 29 2018, 09:30 AM) *
So all of a sudden DTX pulled the trigger on a WSW for a few counties in SEMI with totals of 6-10" blink.gif No idea where this came from....


Yup. Left Grand Blanc around 6am to head to Troy. Was surprised to see about 5 inches on my deck. Yesterday DTX was paintin 1.9" over Flint. So when I saw the WWA I was pleasantly surprised.

Now all the sudden the WSW goes out and they significantly jump the totals.

I'm happy to get the snow. But I feel disappointed in DTX. This is the second time this year where there's been absolutely no warning whatsoever of significant incoming weather and they've waited until WSW criteria have already been met (or right on the hairy edge) before actually issuing the warning. And in this case, I had no idea we were even going to be close to advisory numbers either.




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Greg123
post Jan 29 2018, 11:34 AM
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QUOTE(pros3lyte @ Jan 29 2018, 11:02 AM) *
Yup. Left Grand Blanc around 6am to head to Troy. Was surprised to see about 5 inches on my deck. Yesterday DTX was paintin 1.9" over Flint. So when I saw the WWA I was pleasantly surprised.

Now all the sudden the WSW goes out and they significantly jump the totals.

I'm happy to get the snow. But I feel disappointed in DTX. This is the second time this year where there's been absolutely no warning whatsoever of significant incoming weather and they've waited until WSW criteria have already been met (or right on the hairy edge) before actually issuing the warning. And in this case, I had no idea we were even going to be close to advisory numbers either.


Agree 100%. They really dropped the ball on this one.
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RobB
post Jan 29 2018, 12:00 PM
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Multiple reports of an area east of Lansing seeing between 10 and 12 inches of snow!
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 29 2018, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(pros3lyte @ Jan 29 2018, 11:02 AM) *
Yup. Left Grand Blanc around 6am to head to Troy. Was surprised to see about 5 inches on my deck. Yesterday DTX was paintin 1.9" over Flint. So when I saw the WWA I was pleasantly surprised.

Now all the sudden the WSW goes out and they significantly jump the totals.

I'm happy to get the snow. But I feel disappointed in DTX. This is the second time this year where there's been absolutely no warning whatsoever of significant incoming weather and they've waited until WSW criteria have already been met (or right on the hairy edge) before actually issuing the warning. And in this case, I had no idea we were even going to be close to advisory numbers either.

QUOTE(Greg123 @ Jan 29 2018, 11:34 AM) *
Agree 100%. They really dropped the ball on this one.

You two are writing as if DTX had information indicating heavy snowfall was possible, but that they chose to ignore it. This was quite simply not the case.

Sunday's 12z model guidance spit out less than 0.1" of QPF for the entire area currently under a WSW and this mornings 00z guidance (as the event was already unfolding) bumped up totals to about 0.2" QPF on the south end of WSWs. Maybe they should have had an advisory out given probability of high ratio and light qpf event, but there was zero model guidance suggesting a WSW criteria event. This is further evidenced by the fact that you had no idea advisory level totals were possible. Another way to view this is, SREF plumes indicated potential for 0.5" to 2" of snow in Flint and they got ~10" (from 0.26" of QPF) so I'm not sure how this is the forecaster's fault.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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xy0cmiller6yx
post Jan 29 2018, 01:12 PM
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Heck, it was a surprise too all of us! And we check the models every 6 hours or less. There was no sign on this till late last night. And nothing to this magnitude. And the flint thing and other areas, heavenly isolated. I maybe have an inch now, and I'm less than 50 miles away
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NWOhioChaser
post Jan 29 2018, 03:00 PM
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Snow started around 6:30 this morning and is just now tapering off. Measured 1.5" in a few places. Light and fluffy snow. To think it was 46* here yesterday! Winter has returned for now.
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OSUWx2
post Jan 29 2018, 03:22 PM
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Nothing but *heavy* mood flakes here as the temps have been above freezing since 8-9am. Even hit 41F at CMH before the precip started.

This post has been edited by OSUWx2: Jan 29 2018, 03:23 PM
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RobB
post Jan 29 2018, 03:26 PM
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Had a moderately heavy thin line move through downtown. Coated everything quite quickly. Once it passed, the sidewalks and roads quickly became wet.
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Juniorrr
post Jan 29 2018, 03:43 PM
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Every type of precip ongoing smile.gif
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RobB
post Jan 29 2018, 03:56 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 29 2018, 03:43 PM) *
Every type of precip ongoing smile.gif



Been light snow/graupel throughout the day. Was above freezing at around 33 to 34 at the highest, now at 31.1 degrees.
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snowlover2
post Jan 29 2018, 08:41 PM
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Gotten a fresh covering of snow since sunset including on pavement.


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Ilovelakeeffect
post Jan 30 2018, 04:35 AM
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Still coming down moderately with about 4" here.
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Greg123
post Jan 30 2018, 06:57 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 29 2018, 12:47 PM) *
You two are writing as if DTX had information indicating heavy snowfall was possible, but that they chose to ignore it. This was quite simply not the case.

Sunday's 12z model guidance spit out less than 0.1" of QPF for the entire area currently under a WSW and this mornings 00z guidance (as the event was already unfolding) bumped up totals to about 0.2" QPF on the south end of WSWs. Maybe they should have had an advisory out given probability of high ratio and light qpf event, but there was zero model guidance suggesting a WSW criteria event. This is further evidenced by the fact that you had no idea advisory level totals were possible. Another way to view this is, SREF plumes indicated potential for 0.5" to 2" of snow in Flint and they got ~10" (from 0.26" of QPF) so I'm not sure how this is the forecaster's fault.



All they had to do is look at the reports just to the north and west of them and look at the radar showing that heavy band was heading east. Heck, the weather channel was even calling for 5-8 for our area while the NWS was still saying 1-2. DTX I feel does a good job 95% or more of the time, yesterday was not a good job.
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Ilovelakeeffect
post Jan 30 2018, 01:43 PM
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I finished off at 5.5 inches. Very light snow now. I would say 90% of that was lake effect as it was relatively warm during the synoptic snows. Had it been cooler this one could have really over-performed.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 30 2018, 02:13 PM
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Maybe 1/2" here. Everything has a wintry feel, but not even close to covering up the grass.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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RobB
post Jan 30 2018, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(snowlover2 @ Jan 29 2018, 08:41 PM) *
Gotten a fresh covering of snow since sunset including on pavement.



Same here. Poof it be gone now smile.gif
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