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> February 1-3 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
ingyball
post Jan 23 2018, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE(StormChazer @ Jan 23 2018, 02:33 PM) *
A man can dream.
Even though this is 9-11 days out, I'm glad there's some kind of consensus on at least a storm. But, I'm gonna need the models to continue to agree for another day or two solid before I start getting any kind of excitement.


A lot of my weather friends in DFW are just as snow starved as you. They've been super jealous of the folks further south this season. Usually it's the opposite.
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StormChazer
post Jan 23 2018, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 23 2018, 02:04 PM) *
A lot of my weather friends in DFW are just as snow starved as you. They've been super jealous of the folks further south this season. Usually it's the opposite.


I just moved to Tulsa from Dallas about a year and a half ago, so I definitely get where they are coming from! But man...that year we got over a foot of snow in Dallas in under 24 hours....I'll never forget that.
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CIWeather
post Jan 23 2018, 05:43 PM
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18z not as excited...FWIW.


--------------------
2016-2017 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow:
First Snowflakes:
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 1/12/17
First Winter Storm Warning:
First Blizzard Watch/Warning:
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings:
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings:

2017 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks: 3
Enhanced Risks: 1
Moderate Risks: 1
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2016: 20-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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mulaman984
post Jan 23 2018, 05:59 PM
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QUOTE(CIWeather @ Jan 23 2018, 05:43 PM) *
18z not as excited...FWIW.


Still looks pretty good to me - good consistent signal at least....7+ days out
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ingyball
post Jan 23 2018, 06:10 PM
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QUOTE(StormChazer @ Jan 23 2018, 04:17 PM) *
I just moved to Tulsa from Dallas about a year and a half ago, so I definitely get where they are coming from! But man...that year we got over a foot of snow in Dallas in under 24 hours....I'll never forget that.


Yep, that will be one of those years that people my age will tell their grandchildren about 40 or so years from now. It started off with the Chrismas Eve Blizzard/storm followed by the 12-14 inches of snow many people saw, and then later that March Denton and Collin Counties saw another 4-8 inches of snow. I will never forget that year.
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MIDMIWeather
post Jan 23 2018, 07:08 PM
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Lots of time left with this one.
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mulaman984
post Jan 23 2018, 07:59 PM
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Cranky’s latest outlook: http://www.stormhamster.com/e012318.htm

Mentions this storm...and thinks it will come. I find it unusual that he would state even that (for him) at this range ...interesting.

This post has been edited by mulaman984: Jan 23 2018, 08:00 PM
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mulaman984
post Jan 23 2018, 11:36 PM
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Another 0Z beast. 200+ hours out sad.gif

This post has been edited by mulaman984: Jan 23 2018, 11:37 PM
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ClicheVortex2014
post Jan 23 2018, 11:55 PM
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Those who got burned last time... remember you got burned when the storm was 72 hours out. This is great eye candy but I'll be excited when it's less than 36 hours out.



This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Jan 23 2018, 11:56 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ingyball
post Jan 24 2018, 01:12 AM
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jan 23 2018, 11:55 PM) *
Those who got burned last time... remember you got burned when the storm was 72 hours out. This is great eye candy but I'll be excited when it's less than 36 hours out.



Honestly I wouldn't feel comfortable till it was 12-18 hours out. I'm going to try to pretend the 0z GFS didn't happen lol.
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jpfalcon09
post Jan 24 2018, 06:46 AM
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Good news is that the pattern should be changing around this time period and with that things should get active again. Way too far out to sweat any details obviously, but several mets have seemed to agree that February will be a return to more winterlike conditions for most.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 24 2018, 07:10 AM
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Back to the warm air advection storms we have come to know and love over the last decade. Such a love hate relationship with them
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StormChazer
post Jan 24 2018, 08:03 AM
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QUOTE(ingyball @ Jan 23 2018, 05:10 PM) *
Yep, that will be one of those years that people my age will tell their grandchildren about 40 or so years from now. It started off with the Chrismas Eve Blizzard/storm followed by the 12-14 inches of snow many people saw, and then later that March Denton and Collin Counties saw another 4-8 inches of snow. I will never forget that year.



That year was amazing as a snow lover in Dallas. I lived in Denton so I saw mostly higher amounts being that small distance north. I happen to have been spending the weekend at my sister's in Frisco that day when that band of snow sat over Collin County and dropped 9 inches of snow in that one small spot...that was incredible.
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StormChazer
post Jan 24 2018, 08:04 AM
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Models definitely in agreement still for the most part, I like consistency. That, plus the meteorologists seem to be supporting this one a bit more, and history tells me we are due. Fingers crossed.
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VASnowstormHunte...
post Jan 24 2018, 09:28 AM
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QUOTE(StormChazer @ Jan 24 2018, 08:04 AM) *
Models definitely in agreement still for the most part, I like consistency. That, plus the meteorologists seem to be supporting this one a bit more, and history tells me we are due. Fingers crossed.


Agreed. I'm paying attention simply because both the GEFS and Euro Ens. are showing something in the neighborhood during the same time period.

Still 4-6 days out from getting a better picture on the potential and I think the mid-Jan system taught everyone in this subforum that anything before 60-72 hours out is certainly on the table. Nonetheless, something to watch, which is more fun that nothing at all. smile.gif

This post has been edited by VASnowstormHunter: Jan 24 2018, 09:29 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 24 2018, 09:39 AM
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6z GFS BTW. Gee looks familiar

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jan 24 2018, 09:40 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 24 2018, 09:43 AM
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ECM is on board and for the OV a secondary is cranking up moving NE at this point, would be a 1-2 hit for the, but 240 out discussing it much more than that is pointless
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 24 2018, 09:46 AM
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CMC has the same sort of look
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 24 2018, 10:04 AM
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Some big hitters showing up on quite a few of the EPS members
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Andino
post Jan 24 2018, 10:06 AM
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Looking good Indianapolis?
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