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> February 1-3 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 24 2018, 10:18 AM
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QUOTE(Andino @ Jan 24 2018, 10:06 AM) *
Looking good Indianapolis?


Impossible to know at this point...All we can really say is that the snow chances will be on the increase in the GL/OV starting in early Feb. Need to wait 4-5 more days until the picture becomes a little clearer for this system.
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beaver56
post Jan 24 2018, 10:29 AM
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Storm of a Lifetime!

laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

For once please verify.


--------------------
2013-2014 Winter Snowfall Total (as of 3/25): 61.1" (Snowiest ever for my area!!!)
2013-2014 Winter Ice Total: .30"

Last Snow Event: 1" (3/25)
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ingyball
post Jan 24 2018, 10:33 AM
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QUOTE(StormChazer @ Jan 24 2018, 08:03 AM) *
That year was amazing as a snow lover in Dallas. I lived in Denton so I saw mostly higher amounts being that small distance north. I happen to have been spending the weekend at my sister's in Frisco that day when that band of snow sat over Collin County and dropped 9 inches of snow in that one small spot...that was incredible.


That's funny because my family went to go visit my cousins that day and they lived just west of Wylie. I can't remember if they were in that very heavy band. When I'm not in college I live just south of lake grapevine. My old house was in a great spot south of Lake Lewisville and lake Grapevine, we would often over preform in snow events due to lake enhanced snow. We had an actual very rare lake effect snow event December 2016, it was very cool.
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ingyball
post Jan 24 2018, 10:35 AM
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I'm am also happy to finally have a storm to track, even though we had the cutter come through there wasn't much chatting going on about it.
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easton229
post Jan 24 2018, 11:32 AM
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So can we just lock in the 12z GFS? wub.gif wub.gif wub.gif

Good thing it’s only 200 hours out wink.gif

This post has been edited by easton229: Jan 24 2018, 11:33 AM
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adurb44
post Jan 24 2018, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 24 2018, 10:18 AM) *
Impossible to know at this point...All we can really say is that the snow chances will be on the increase in the GL/OV starting in early Feb. Need to wait 4-5 more days until the picture becomes a little clearer for this system.


Second this. Not even getting excited about this given how much time we have for this system. I think the only thing to say at this point is we will at least have something to track over the next week!
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 24 2018, 12:01 PM
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12z GFS reduces the coverage of affected members by about 75% from prior runs, lots of WAA and doesnt look like a secondary gets going like prior runs

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ValpoSnow
post Jan 24 2018, 12:05 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 24 2018, 11:01 AM) *
12z GFS reduces the coverage of affected members by about 75% from prior runs, lots of WAA and doesnt look like a secondary gets going like prior runs


I'm going on vacation 2/2-2/10 so I hope this happens the day before I leave and I still can enjoy it. Lock it in! lol
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 24 2018, 12:27 PM
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QUOTE(ValpoSnow @ Jan 24 2018, 12:05 PM) *
I'm going on vacation 2/2-2/10 so I hope this happens the day before I leave and I still can enjoy it. Lock it in! lol

I would be devastated for you if this is finally the one for Chicago and you wind up out town or it delayed your flight
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RobB
post Jan 24 2018, 12:38 PM
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As the amount of time between now and this time period is still quite large, I shall only post the 12Z GEFS mean snowfall through hour 228.


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RobB
post Jan 24 2018, 12:48 PM
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A few GEFS member precip type graphics...again, a big FWIW



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jpfalcon09
post Jan 24 2018, 01:07 PM
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Given storms have either gone north or south of the area this winter, I'm not holding my breath. We need a good NE/SW alignment for a spread the wealth type system, we're all due.


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UD1Hens
post Jan 24 2018, 01:17 PM
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Keeping an eye on this one from the East Coast. Iíll be in Chicago from Sunday morning (1/28) until my flight leaves Friday evening (2/2). Would love to see Chicago for the first time snowcovered. If I understand correctly, that area does best when the Low comes from the West, dips down pulling in GOM moisture, then the low rides up through Ohio/Michigan. The formula needed for a good snowstorm is totally different in the mid Atlantic, where a GLC or changeover event tend to keep us warm and wet.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 24 2018, 01:45 PM
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12z Euro, GFS, Canadian at hour 192 for comparison...pretty similar setup on all 3 it appears.

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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 24 2018, 01:53 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 24 2018, 01:45 PM) *
12z Euro, GFS, Canadian at hour 192 for comparison...pretty similar setup on all 3 it appears.


Differences are apparent at hour 216, as you'd expect this far out. I like the look of the SLP placement on the Euro though wub.gif
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RobB
post Jan 24 2018, 01:59 PM
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That particular run of the Euro was rain to snow with very cold air following. Always fun watching what COULD happen when an air mass change comes in...
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jpfalcon09
post Jan 24 2018, 02:04 PM
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Long range is showing the potential return of the polar vortex in early Feb. Something to keep an eye on.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 24 2018, 02:05 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 24 2018, 01:59 PM) *
That particular run of the Euro was rain to snow with very cold air following. Always fun watching what COULD happen when an air mass change comes in...

We're no less than 6 days from sampling, so are we sure it's not a lock yet? tongue.gif


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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ValpoSnow
post Jan 24 2018, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 24 2018, 11:27 AM) *
I would be devastated for you if this is finally the one for Chicago and you wind up out town or it delayed your flight


You and me both! I'm honestly not happy about being out of town as I try not to go anywhere in the winter just in case a big storm comes. If the fight ended up delayed, I wouldn't even care, not if it meant I was getting a big one!
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 24 2018, 02:07 PM
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QUOTE(jpfalcon09 @ Jan 24 2018, 02:04 PM) *
Long range is showing the potential return of the polar vortex in early Feb. Something to keep an eye on.

How do you figure? Also, what do you mean return of the polar vortex? It's been in the arctic all winter.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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