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> February 1-3 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
grace
post Jan 29 2018, 10:25 AM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Jan 29 2018, 09:19 AM) *
What site do you use to see them?



Free site here that is good for SLP & Precip mean & individual ensembles below it

https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/charts_e.htm...&Type=pcp12
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BrenK10
post Jan 29 2018, 12:24 PM
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glad I didnt check this thread until now. Ups and downs. Could rebound! ya never know
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 29 2018, 12:50 PM
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the last holdout finally caved (and hard at that lol) the UK
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Juniorrr
post Jan 29 2018, 03:48 PM
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Just too much wave interference or confluence ahead of the SW. Still wouldn't be surprised to see a localized area getting a thumping. We shall see.
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grace
post Jan 29 2018, 04:09 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 29 2018, 11:50 AM) *
the last holdout finally caved (and hard at that lol) the UK



UK still has something for me...but I'm sure it'll change
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Juniorrr
post Jan 29 2018, 04:36 PM
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Icon
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grace
post Jan 29 2018, 07:33 PM
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18z GEFS ensembles noticeably colder & snowier over Kentucky compared to 6z:

6z GEFS




18z GEFS

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grace
post Jan 29 2018, 08:36 PM
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18z JMA...impressive


http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-p...test&hh=072
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Southern Missour...
post Jan 29 2018, 11:52 PM
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Well, at least Canadian tried doing something for some of us:


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NWOhioChaser
post Jan 30 2018, 04:24 PM
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Yeah...it just seems like models just aren't as reliable this year...
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Juniorrr
post Jan 30 2018, 06:07 PM
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QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Jan 30 2018, 04:24 PM) *
Yeah...it just seems like models just aren't as reliable this year...

The system exiting the EC busted in a positive way for SE MI, and into SE NE. Just pure *bleep* these models this year... maybe the Pacific mess is the cause.
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jdrenken
post Jan 30 2018, 06:26 PM
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Why are there post for February 8th-9th in the February 1-3 thread?

I have moved them into the correct one.


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grace
post Jan 31 2018, 05:12 PM
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I'm laughing at the 18z trends...giving me a tad bit of hope. It would be sweet if 0z trends even stronger:)
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 1 2018, 10:47 AM
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Impressive jet dynamics with this system, but surface temperatures are a problem.

If surface temperatures were 5F cooler this could be the biggest event of the year for me. As it is looks like another run of the mill 1-2" event.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 1 2018, 12:05 PM
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Temperature shot up to 49 as of 15 minutes ago, but rain has now begun so temperatures should drop into the upper 30s before too long. Then I have several hours of cold rain to look forwards to before a change over to wet snow occurs around sunset.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 1 2018, 01:41 PM
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Carmi, IL switched to snow around noon today with a fairly impressive radar presentation at the moment yet their current NWS forecast reads:

QUOTE
A chance of sprinkles, mixing with flurries after 4pm, then gradually ending. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 33 by 5pm. North northwest wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.


It was 34F at 12:15 pm so I think the NWS has some revisions to do today.


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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Juniorrr
post Feb 1 2018, 03:41 PM
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Rain snow mix atm.
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cincysnow
post Feb 1 2018, 03:43 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Feb 1 2018, 03:41 PM) *
Rain snow mix atm.

same here. More snow starting to mix in right now
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 2 2018, 11:20 AM
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I picked up 1/2" of solidly frozen slush. The kind of event I could have done without, but I shouldn't complain or else I'll get nothing next time tongue.gif


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and to appropriately communicate the forecast to the users.

Fervent supporter of the idea to make GFS output beyond hour 168 proprietary! Anyone wanting to post/share/tweet/etc GFS output beyond day 7 should have 1) a limited set of graphics available with the option to 2) contribute a nominal fee to get a full suite of products while improving future GFS output. #EURObusinessfor-the-win
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