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> Feb 7-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility - Short Term Forecasts D1+
Undertakerson
post Jan 23 2018, 07:33 PM
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OK - Let's start this date range rolling.

" A long long time ago. I can still remember how that forecast used to make me smile. And I knew if I had the chance, that I could make the maps all dance - and make the weenies happy for a while. And February OFM delivers, with every arrow in the quiver, cold new on the doorstep, I had to take the big step....

Current thinking is that we have a strong OFM signal for active winter scenario during this time pd. GFS LR starting to come into time frame and adds "traditional" model support.

First, the Spaghetti (12z GEFS based, from Ewall)

Note the "anomaly" regions of western ridge and Atl heights (LH panel) and the rise in Atl side heights (RH panel)

Attached Image


BSR H5 (500mb) view, signal of interest E of Tidewater region

Attached Image


SOI-D shows a corresponding "drop" (with height rise indicated in time period immed prior, as supported by GEFS WR strength)
Attached Image

EAR has items of interest, again just prior to dates and on start dates

Starred region near AK shows ridging signal (warmth) and region near 50/50 (unicorn - 50/50?)

Attached Image


And finally, the computer's version of all of this, at this far a lead time


Attached Image


Attached Image


Verbatim, on the model, not a great outcome. But we know what the models do with this much lead time. So we'll lean on the OFM to pull this off.

Last caveat - bear in mind that forum rules mandate that the MidAtl/NE region be discussed in tandem. So let's try to refrain from commenting too much on individual IMBY impact at this juncture.

And the three dudes I admire most, Black Knight, Clap and a guy named Poc - they took the forecast to the coast, the day the modeling died. And we were singing.....
wink.gif wink.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 6 2018, 03:15 AM
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JDClapper
post Jan 23 2018, 07:37 PM
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Is this where I post what I think the rules should be on long range systems?

This post has been edited by JDClapper: Jan 23 2018, 07:38 PM


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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The Day After To...
post Jan 23 2018, 07:39 PM
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This is where I point out the "NW" in the title, rather than "NE", lol. A true coast-to-coast storm.


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Undertakerson
post Jan 23 2018, 07:43 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 23 2018, 07:39 PM) *
This is where I point out the "NW" in the title, rather than "NE", lol. A true coast-to-coast storm.

cool - thanks
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JDClapper
post Jan 23 2018, 07:43 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 23 2018, 07:39 PM) *
This is where I point out the "NW" in the title, rather than "NE", lol. A true coast-to-coast storm.
go big or go home.

American Pie February is just around the corner.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Solstice
post Jan 23 2018, 08:19 PM
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RRWT
Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 24 2018, 04:21 AM
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Don't mind me - just dropping off a link to the ensembles.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html
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PoconoSnow
post Jan 24 2018, 08:14 AM
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Of

Approval

👍🏼👍🏼


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shaulov4
post Jan 24 2018, 08:38 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Jan 24 2018, 08:14 AM) *


Of

Approval

👍🏼👍🏼

I laughed so hard i dont know why.... laugh.gif
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 24 2018, 09:18 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jan 23 2018, 07:43 PM) *
go big or go home.

American Pie February is just around the corner.

Help me out pal as I see this a lot

What's the meaning for "American Pie" as with February?

Thanks in advance wink.gif
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psu1313
post Jan 24 2018, 11:28 AM
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Looks like rain! laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Sorry, sometimes one can't help themselves!
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jdrenken
post Jan 24 2018, 12:34 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jan 24 2018, 08:18 AM) *
Help me out pal as I see this a lot

What's the meaning for "American Pie" as with February?

Thanks in advance wink.gif


Who knows what the meaning of "American Pie" is. JB coined it...enough said.


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Undertakerson
post Jan 24 2018, 12:50 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 24 2018, 12:34 PM) *
Who knows what the meaning of "American Pie" is. JB coined it...enough said.

I take it as the line from the song of same name:

"February made me shiver, for every paper I delivered, bad new on the doorstep...."

But yeah it is JB so who really knows
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JDClapper
post Jan 24 2018, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jan 24 2018, 09:18 AM) *
Help me out pal as I see this a lot

What's the meaning for "American Pie" as with February?

Thanks in advance wink.gif



QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 24 2018, 12:34 PM) *
Who knows what the meaning of "American Pie" is. JB coined it...enough said.



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 24 2018, 12:50 PM) *
I take it as the line from the song of same name:

"February made me shiver, for every paper I delivered, bad new on the doorstep...."

But yeah it is JB so who really knows


laugh.gif I dunno what it means.. I'd ASSUME it means like cold and snow, considering the source. But what's new with February's anyways, lately. That's a bet I'd take months ahead of time.. based on recent history.

Will probably end up American Cake. sad.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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Undertakerson
post Jan 24 2018, 04:08 PM
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Don't mind me, just posting the ensembles

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 24 2018, 05:05 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 24 2018, 12:50 PM) *
I take it as the line from the song of same name:

"February made me shiver, for every paper I delivered, bad new on the doorstep...."

But yeah it is JB so who really knows

Thanks man...
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 24 2018, 05:06 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Jan 24 2018, 02:49 PM) *
laugh.gif I dunno what it means.. I'd ASSUME it means like cold and snow, considering the source. But what's new with February's anyways, lately. That's a bet I'd take months ahead of time.. based on recent history.

Will probably end up American Cake. sad.gif

Yea man, crazier things have happened
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Undertakerson
post Jan 24 2018, 05:59 PM
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18z GFS looked really good up until about Hr 300 - then kind of lost the whole idea to a jumbled mess.

Plenty of time for that to sort out though.
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shaulov4
post Jan 24 2018, 06:05 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Jan 24 2018, 05:59 PM) *
18z GFS looked really good up until about Hr 300 - then kind of lost the whole idea to a jumbled mess.

Plenty of time for that to sort out though.


Yea, it looked like it was going towards some miller b type action..obviously the question is will it? Ultimately it depends on what happens with the previous storm or frontal passage as some would like to call it now wink.gif. The Faster the storm behind it happens the more of a chance for something big for this one. Hate to be a debbie downer but for one of these storms to succeed we need one of them to fail. Cant be greedy now......or can we? hmmmmm....
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Undertakerson
post Jan 25 2018, 04:09 AM
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Attached Image


Apparently, we become "surrounded"

Attached Image


By "we" I mean US and the cold air.

Check that LH panel. I don't recall ever having seen the heights "Laurel Wreath" the US in such form and fashion.
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