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> Feb 7-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Possibility - Short Term Forecasts D1+
bingobobbo
post Jan 27 2018, 09:31 PM
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There probably will be a storm here the night of the 6th because there is a poet I enjoy who will be in town that night. I want to see her, so watch us be in the bull's eye!


What do you call poetry that is depressing and dismal? POE-try! Bad one, I know. However, page topper, boom, earned it, etc.

This post has been edited by bingobobbo: Jan 29 2018, 01:54 PM


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There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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rtcemc
post Jan 27 2018, 10:10 PM
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QUOTE(bingobobbo @ Jan 27 2018, 09:31 PM) *
There probably will be a storm here the night of the 6th because there is a poet I enjoy who will be in town that night. I want to see her, so watch us be in the bull's eye!

blink.gif blink.gif
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jdrenken
post Jan 27 2018, 11:58 PM
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From Uncle Larry...

QUOTE
Interplay with the subtropical jet stream also is suggestive of a strong storm affecting the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard between the 7th and 11th of next month.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 28 2018, 06:40 AM
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Undertakerson
post Jan 28 2018, 02:27 PM
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http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html
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Solstice
post Jan 28 2018, 06:00 PM
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PNA - 0z - 01/28/18
Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Jan 29 2018, 05:42 AM
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Attached Image


Attached Image


http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Jan 29 2018, 05:44 AM
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Jan 29 2018, 11:23 AM
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12z cmc
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 


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Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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Snowadelphia
post Jan 29 2018, 11:25 AM
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12z GFS as well...

Attached Image


--------------------
WINTER 17/18 - 35.5"
12/9- 5"
12/13 - 1"
12/15 - 2"
12/30 - 2.5"
1/4 - 5"
2/17 - 1"
3/2 - 3.5"
3/7 - 7"
3/21 - 8"
4/2 - .5"

WINTER 16/17 - 15"
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stretchct
post Jan 29 2018, 01:38 PM
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Euro


JMA


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis



First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Ryan Duff
post Jan 29 2018, 03:26 PM
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Out of curiosity, is anyone keeping tally of how many of these long range storms never come to fruition? I understand utilizing organic forecasting, but for whatever reason this feels like I've seen a dozen of these threads open with correlation maps yet none seem to happen.

Isn't part of science testing the hypothesis and recording what actually happened? Validates theories and makes things better.

This winter has been good from far, but far from good.


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 29 2018, 03:33 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jan 29 2018, 03:26 PM) *
Out of curiosity, is anyone keeping tally of how many of these long range storms never come to fruition? I understand utilizing organic forecasting, but for whatever reason this feels like I've seen a dozen of these threads open with correlation maps yet none seem to happen.

Isn't part of science testing the hypothesis and recording what actually happened? Validates theories and makes things better.

This winter has been good from far, but far from good.

Amen brother, amen.

I don't think any of those long range fantasy unicorn storms ever came to fruitition.
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stilko4
post Jan 29 2018, 03:34 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Jan 29 2018, 03:33 PM) *
Amen brother, amen.

I don't think any of those long range fantasy unicorn storms ever came to fruitition.

It's been good so far for us along the coast


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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Black05GSR
post Jan 29 2018, 04:00 PM
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Still sticking to my NYE resolution to not entertain models over 168 hours, just setting yourself up for disappointment. Still plenty of disappointment to go around at less than 168 hours too rolleyes.gif


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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Enigma
post Jan 29 2018, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan Duff @ Jan 29 2018, 03:26 PM) *
Out of curiosity, is anyone keeping tally of how many of these long range storms never come to fruition? I understand utilizing organic forecasting, but for whatever reason this feels like I've seen a dozen of these threads open with correlation maps yet none seem to happen.

Isn't part of science testing the hypothesis and recording what actually happened? Validates theories and makes things better.

This winter has been good from far, but far from good.


It's become an agenda driven forum, starting at the top.

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Ryan Duff
post Jan 29 2018, 04:24 PM
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QUOTE(Enigma @ Jan 29 2018, 04:13 PM) *
It's become an agenda driven forum, starting at the top.


Sorry, you lost me at agenda. Mind enlightening me?


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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jdrenken
post Jan 29 2018, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE(Enigma @ Jan 29 2018, 03:13 PM) *
It's become an agenda driven forum, starting at the top.


If it was agenda driven I would post all of the time. The guidelines are clear when it comes to creating threads.

The classic saying about OFM is...
QUOTE
We nail the pattern, specifics come later.


If the thread didn't have support in that a storm was moving through this timeline than it's on you to report. Support was given that a signal was moving through this time period in other ways not even shown here.

Just because they don't transpire like you want doesn't mean it doesn't happen. wink.gif

Whether it snows 12" as shown in long range guidance or turns into a rain event it still happened in the winter and is still a storm.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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rtcemc
post Jan 29 2018, 04:59 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 29 2018, 04:32 PM) *
If it was agenda driven I would post all of the time. The guidelines are clear when it comes to creating threads.

The classic saying about OFM is...
If the thread didn't have support in that a storm was moving through this timeline than it's on you to report. Support was given that a signal was moving through this time period in other ways not even shown here.

Just because they don't transpire like you want doesn't mean it doesn't happen. wink.gif

Whether it snows 12" as shown in long range guidance or turns into a rain event it still happened in the winter and is still a storm.

Which is the basis of your premise. As long as the storm occurs within the time frame BSR has/had it, it is recorded in the plus column. I think it is more their lack of understanding the basic premise behind the BSR. If the storm never materializes it goes in the minus column. So your research has proven to have about a 70 % success rate that a weather system will occur within a given time frame over a given area. Why wouldn't people want that knowledge or dispute it?
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stretchct
post Jan 29 2018, 05:23 PM
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GFS looking gooooooddddd


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis



First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Jan 29 2018, 05:23 PM
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Something big brewing on the gfs, could it Be a unicorn or the real thing???
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