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> Jan 27-30th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm Observations, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 29 2018, 08:21 AM
Post #21




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Can't get NAM gif to work this morning.

I could see the cape/long island/coastal NE/NJ getting some pretty decent snow from the little coastal and the ridge and valley picking up a few inches with that power packed little bugger from the west. Elevation always a factor but probably even moreso here for the western wave. Lift will help and cooler temps will allow accumulation. Could be a fun. I have made a promise to myself not to look at the HRRR today which has been nothing short of atrocious again this year. Time to pull the plug on that experiment.

PAGE TOPPER BOOM!

can a kangaroo jump higher than a house?

of course! houses cant jump.

earned it.



This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Jan 29 2018, 08:22 AM


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

SNOWMAPS ARE WORSE.
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LUCC
post Jan 29 2018, 09:13 AM
Post #22




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Models not trending in this right direction for this one either.....


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 29 2018, 09:16 AM
Post #23




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QUOTE(LUCC @ Jan 29 2018, 09:13 AM) *
Models not trending in this right direction for this one either.....


hahahaha boy did I jinx NAM this morning. laugh.gif


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

SNOWMAPS ARE WORSE.
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LUCC
post Jan 29 2018, 09:19 AM
Post #24




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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 29 2018, 09:16 AM) *
hahahaha boy did I jinx NAM this morning. laugh.gif

Went from 3" on 6z 12k NAM to 0" on 12z 12k NAM! Waiting on 3k 12z. dry.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Fire/Rescue
post Jan 29 2018, 10:01 AM
Post #25




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QUOTE(wtkidz @ Jan 29 2018, 07:31 AM) *
So excited for the coating to an inch ..

Of course that is more than I thought we would get...

Yea man....bring it on tongue.gif
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shane o mac
post Jan 29 2018, 12:53 PM
Post #26




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Looks like 30-40 cm of snow for us here , with wind gusts to 70 km .. will be interesting .
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LUCC
post Jan 29 2018, 01:00 PM
Post #27




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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Jan 29 2018, 12:53 PM) *
Looks like 30-40 cm of snow for us here , with wind gusts to 70 km .. will be interesting .

cool.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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risingriver
post Jan 29 2018, 02:13 PM
Post #28




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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Jan 29 2018, 10:01 AM) *
Yea man....bring it on tongue.gif


Get us some video so we can live the life vicariously through our Canadian friends.

The Snow Nazi has control of my part of the mid Atlantic and keeps saying, "No snow for you! Come back next storm!" laugh.gif
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HV Snowstorm
post Jan 29 2018, 03:26 PM
Post #29




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Is the rain on radar well inlamd/ NW of modeld??
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stretchct
post Jan 29 2018, 03:31 PM
Post #30




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Torture - I have broken clouds with some blue sky in New Haven.

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
36" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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stretchct
post Jan 29 2018, 03:42 PM
Post #31




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This is what the NAM saw for now on its 18z run - which wrote off any accum snow

Attached Image

3k

Attached Image

HRRR

Attached Image


VS current radar
Attached Image


Keep in mind these are model radar, not precip reaching the ground.

These are obs per mping. Maybe Rob or Nor can provide their versions
Attached Image


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
36" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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NorEaster07
post Jan 29 2018, 03:43 PM
Post #32




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Can't wait till the GOES16 goes live with this software. Feels too blank..

Radar loop last 4 hrs. 11:30am-3:30pmEST

Coastal Storm is off NC now. Drizzling in Eastern MA started.


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yamvmax
post Jan 29 2018, 03:54 PM
Post #33




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 29 2018, 03:42 PM) *
This is what the NAM saw for now on its 18z run - which wrote off any accum snow

Attached Image

3k

Attached Image

HRRR

Attached Image


VS current radar
Attached Image


Keep in mind these are model radar, not precip reaching the ground.

These are obs per mping. Maybe Rob or Nor can provide their versions
Attached Image

Yea, that precip over LI is virga. Nothing coming down, feels sorta warm.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Jan 29 2018, 04:01 PM
Post #34




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Lotta virga out there freezing line aloft is around 925mb right now precip back really nice should help the cape and maybe eastern tip of LI. Curious to see how this snow band sets up into PA later on.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
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2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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rtcemc
post Jan 29 2018, 04:15 PM
Post #35




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Is it me, or is our southern precip more intense and more west than modeled??
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stretchct
post Jan 29 2018, 04:45 PM
Post #36




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From: Newtown, CT
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There's a bunch of places that the models radar didn't have any returns. OH and KY are much stronger and have the obs to confirm its reaching the ground in areas that the modeled radar didn't have any returns.

Someone is reporting snow in Pottsgrove PA. That wasn't modeled.


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-18 6"
2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
36" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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rtcemc
post Jan 29 2018, 04:47 PM
Post #37




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 29 2018, 04:45 PM) *
There's a bunch of places that the models radar didn't have any returns. OH and KY are much stronger and have the obs to confirm its reaching the ground in areas that the modeled radar didn't have any returns.

Someone is reporting snow in Pottsgrove PA. That wasn't modeled.

So they answer to my question Stretch is yea laugh.gif
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risingriver
post Jan 29 2018, 05:07 PM
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Parent pickup duty was the most miserable of the year: raw, just enough wind to be definitely cold, and rain/drizzle/spritzing heavy enough to soak you in 15 minutes in places even with an umbrella.

Hooray for wind proof fleece jackets.

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rtcemc
post Jan 29 2018, 05:39 PM
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Since I am bored...... https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/...llite-wv?play=1
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rtcemc
post Jan 29 2018, 05:42 PM
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To the point made to RR on another thread. Just so close to something bigger. If only Mr. Troughy wasn't positive, cuz the southern precip is certainly more intense and surely much more west than modeled, even recent models.. says the bored child.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast...n/weather-radar
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