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> Feb 4th-5th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, REALITY: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
7.3powerstrokedi...
post Jan 29 2018, 10:23 AM
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Maybe I can bring some good voodoo in my first thread for the season. Gfs brings a weak wave of precipitation, CMC brings a more significant system Super Bowl Sunday

Go Birds!

This post has been edited by 7.3powerstrokediesel: Feb 3 2018, 01:09 PM
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Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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MD Blue Ridge
post Jan 29 2018, 11:05 AM
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Too close to March for snow.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

SNOWMAPS ARE WORSE.
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stretchct
post Jan 29 2018, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Jan 29 2018, 11:05 AM) *
Too close to March for snow.

Sun angle.


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
30" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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albanyweather
post Jan 29 2018, 11:48 AM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 29 2018, 11:08 AM) *
Sun angle.

Yes but no sun spots for 9 days now.
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--------------------
Snowfall 2017-2018: 32.0"
2016-2017: 58.7"
2015-2016: 13.1"
2014-2015: 72.1"
2013-2014: 79"
2012-2013: 48.8"
2011-2012: 23.3"
2010-2011: 80.2"
Seasonal Normal: 60.3"
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KENNYP2339
post Jan 29 2018, 11:49 AM
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Flurries
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stretchct
post Jan 29 2018, 11:53 AM
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QUOTE(albanyweather @ Jan 29 2018, 11:48 AM) *
Yes but no sun spots for 9 days now.

Dude thats just an orange circle with a black background! laugh.gif


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
30" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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stretchct
post Jan 29 2018, 01:42 PM
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12z euro text output for the 4th - up from .03 on the 0z run
CODE
SUN 12Z 04-FEB  -1.8    -4.0    1023      64      97    0.01     548     530    
SUN 18Z 04-FEB   1.0    -5.6    1022      63      99    0.02     549     532    
MON 00Z 05-FEB  -0.7    -5.6    1022      88      98    0.04     551     533    
MON 06Z 05-FEB  -2.5    -6.7    1023      80      86    0.07     550     532


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
30" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Jan 29 2018, 11:50 PM
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How can I edit dates to show 4th-5th?

0Z GFS AND CMC
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Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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phillyfan
post Jan 29 2018, 11:53 PM
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QUOTE(7.3powerstrokediesel @ Jan 29 2018, 11:50 PM) *
How can I edit dates to show 4th-5th?

0Z GFS AND CMC

This thread is for this I thought: huh.gif



--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18
Winter Storm WArning: 2/17
Flood Watch 2/10-11

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"

Total: 24.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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Blizz
post Jan 29 2018, 11:56 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Jan 29 2018, 11:53 PM) *
This thread is for this I thought: huh.gif


Yeah that makes more sense.


--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 26.9"
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 7


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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shaulov4
post Jan 30 2018, 12:00 AM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Jan 29 2018, 11:56 PM) *
Yeah that makes more sense.

Wait but what is that isnt that just pieces coming together for the next event?

Nvm just realised it was a seperate northern piece geez some many pieces one of them has to come together.

This post has been edited by shaulov4: Jan 30 2018, 12:25 AM
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Jan 30 2018, 08:16 AM
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6z GFS Late Sunday Night/ Monday Morning
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Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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wtkidz
post Jan 30 2018, 09:18 AM
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Sterling thoughts for this time period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front will be exiting our region to the east Friday
morning with a slight chance of snow across the area as colder
air filters in behind the front. However, due to the quick
nature of the frontal passage, any accumulation is expected to
be light with snow ending by mid morning Friday for most.
Upslope snow showers will be ongoing through Friday afternoon
along and west of the Allegheny front. Cold and blustery
conditions expected Friday with highs ranging in the upper 20s
over our western zones and low to middle 30s elsewhere. Canadian
high pressure builds over the region Friday night and Saturday,
with continued below normal temperatures.

The next weather system approaches on Sunday and into Monday as
low pressure crosses the Great Lakes, remaining to our north,
and low pressure tracks along the Gulf Coast states before
moving up off the Carolina coast Sunday night and Monday. A
great deal of timing uncertainty exists between global models,
especially in regards to the low moving up the coast. GFS favors
a slower and colder solution, with precipitation continuing in
to Monday night, while the ECMWF is more progressive, keeping
heaviest precipitation east of our area and ending by Monday
morning. Will continue to monitor over the next few days in
hopes of better agreement. Temperatures Saturday night through
Sunday night will hover near normal for early February, with
below normal temperatures returning Monday in the wake of the
frontal passage.


--------------------
The weather is what it is and nothing will change it
but trying to forecast it is a lot of fun.



It’s Meteorology NOT Modelology
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LUCC
post Jan 30 2018, 12:02 PM
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I guess this goes here?


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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Undertakerson
post Jan 30 2018, 12:42 PM
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UKM

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LUCC
post Jan 30 2018, 01:11 PM
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--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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EstorilM
post Jan 30 2018, 03:16 PM
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I'm kinda confused with the threads after the last 12Z stuff came out, this is the same one for the storm GFS has off the coast of Carolinas sun PM/mon AM ish.. verbatim?

edit: nevermind, appears so - didn't see the 12z posted for some reason. I heard it was a little more exciting than that sleep.gif

This post has been edited by EstorilM: Jan 30 2018, 03:17 PM
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stretchct
post Jan 30 2018, 03:19 PM
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12z Euro - its not far off, right now another coastal scraper.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
30" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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Undertakerson
post Jan 30 2018, 04:11 PM
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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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CTP

QUOTE
.SYNOPSIS...
As the upper level trough moves to the northeast, dry cold air
with gusty winds will continue through Tuesday evening. Mainly
clear skies tonight into Wednesday morning should offer
favorable viewing of the rare super blue moon eclipse.
Temperature swings will continue into the weekend with the
potential for accumulating snow Thursday into early Friday
(Groundhog Day) and again later Saturday into Sunday.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
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stilko4
post Jan 30 2018, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Jan 30 2018, 03:19 PM) *
12z Euro - its not far off, right now another coastal scraper.

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Perfect place right now, litlle jump west, i95 and east is in the game


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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