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> February 6th-8th Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 30 2018, 12:29 PM
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Winter 2017/2018: the season with a major storm just 200 hours away
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Jan 30 2018, 12:32 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 30 2018, 12:29 PM) *
Winter 2017/2018: the season with a major storm just 200 hours away

With that said, there's a great signal on the GEFS ... maybe this will be the one that stands the test of time.
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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grace
post Jan 30 2018, 01:48 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 30 2018, 11:29 AM) *
Winter 2017/2018: the season with a major storm just 200 hours away



Boy...that's the truth for sure!

Hope you're correct on your last post.
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RobB
post Jan 30 2018, 02:13 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 30 2018, 12:29 PM) *
Winter 2017/2018: the season with a major storm just 200 hours away



You've got that right!

Model tease in perpetuity smile.gif
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cary67
post Jan 30 2018, 02:15 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Jan 30 2018, 11:29 AM) *
Winter 2017/2018: the season with a major storm just 200 hours away

Present carrot.....now dangle... Sadly still doesn't affect my area really.Could verify though it does go through Detroit.

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VASnowstormHunte...
post Jan 30 2018, 02:25 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Jan 30 2018, 02:15 PM) *
Present carrot.....now dangle... Sadly still doesn't affect my area really.


YES! I'm in a great position 200 hours out for that 200 mile SE shift! ::: sarcasm :::
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 30 2018, 03:11 PM
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Time is ticking on this winter so why not. Everything before this is weak, at least the GFS had something a little stronger


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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 30 2018, 03:13 PM
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CMC
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 30 2018, 05:32 PM
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18z GFS is NUMEROUS waves this run, these can be fun (note theres gaps and this isnt continuous snow)

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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 30 2018, 05:34 PM
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start to get in to the 200 hours mark by here...

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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 30 2018, 05:37 PM
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3 wave total
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Juniorrr
post Jan 30 2018, 06:06 PM
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One of these waves has to produce laugh.gif.
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jdrenken
post Jan 30 2018, 06:32 PM
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I have moved over the post from the 1-3 thread in here.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 31 2018, 07:58 AM
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6z GFS 2 wave total
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 31 2018, 08:00 AM
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3 wave total
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ValpoSnow
post Jan 31 2018, 08:04 AM
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I wouldn't be surprised if this somehow hit Chicago as I will be out of town all of next week. I'm so unhappy about it.
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RobB
post Jan 31 2018, 08:08 AM
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1/31 0Z Euro total snows through hour 210:
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RobB
post Jan 31 2018, 08:09 AM
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1/31 Euro EPS total snows through 210 hours. All of this FWIW
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 31 2018, 11:16 AM
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This is looking good too
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 31 2018, 11:20 AM
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.
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