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> Feb 1-2, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
NorEaster07
post Feb 1 2018, 03:47 PM
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Raining in parts of PA and Virginia now.


Link to the Forecasting thread for this time period.

QUOTE
.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will cross the Middle Atlantic region tonight. High
pressure will build across the area Friday through Saturday as
its center passes south of the area.


Latest surface analysis depicts the surface cold front crossing
western PA, heading east.



11:30am-3:30pm loop

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NorEaster07
post Feb 1 2018, 03:48 PM
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Surface Map

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Surface/Mixed.aspx

Attached Image


Snowfall total forecast

Attached Image



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 1 2018, 03:50 PM
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HV Snowstorm
post Feb 1 2018, 03:56 PM
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Acc has 1-3" here, I'd just love that but have my doubts, here's to some good surprises!
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Undertakerson
post Feb 1 2018, 03:58 PM
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CTP says what falls will be rain until 7. Given that there is no rain (yet) and we creep eer closer, and IMBY temps are 38 and falling - could be close call for the elevation known as UTS Hill (Blue Mtn)
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 1 2018, 04:17 PM
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Currently 40deg, with a mix of light rain and sleet
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Winter lover
post Feb 1 2018, 04:24 PM
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NBC CT has my area in the 2-5 inch range!!!
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avsguy01
post Feb 1 2018, 04:27 PM
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I bet we get more from this event than the last one earlier this week here in Delaware.
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 04:44 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 1 2018, 03:58 PM) *
CTP says what falls will be rain until 7. Given that there is no rain (yet) and we creep eer closer, and IMBY temps are 38 and falling - could be close call for the elevation known as UTS Hill (Blue Mtn)

Yea mentioned that to St. L earlier about the lower temps. We never reached our high here, dew points are still low. Said it is going to be a close call. The amount and duration of sleet is always fickle forecast. They just iced an alert for icy conditions tomorrow morning, due to rapid temp drop. They are not forecasting accums here.
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 1 2018, 04:45 PM
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Ill take some mood flakes hopefully doesnt do much up my way just dont feel like driving in *bleep*, 850's right on the edge to the west just have some dry air to work out in the lower levels. Warmest 925mb region HRRR and nam with how well they have been doing say around 12-1am we switch over with surface temps around mid 30's. We have about another 4 hours before any precip were to start per models and done by about 7am.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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Solstice
post Feb 1 2018, 04:52 PM
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Acquired Learner's Permit today. Time to test it out tommorow biggrin.gif


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Solstice
post Feb 1 2018, 04:58 PM
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NAM Kuchera Ratio
Attached Image


RDPS Kuchera Ratio
Attached Image


SREF Low Centers
Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 05:04 PM
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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 1 2018, 04:45 PM) *
Ill take some mood flakes hopefully doesnt do much up my way just dont feel like driving in *bleep*, 850's right on the edge to the west just have some dry air to work out in the lower levels. Warmest 925mb region HRRR and nam with how well they have been doing say around 12-1am we switch over with surface temps around mid 30's. We have about another 4 hours before any precip were to start per models and done by about 7am.

Mood flakes is a good call and quite frankly that is enough for me. It is falling when most are in bed and pretty much over by the time most are waking up. Worst kind of storm for me. I do worry more about the flash freeze with rapidly dropping temps. Usually road crews are not called out in time, and accidents will abound. I hope not.
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 1 2018, 05:10 PM
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Precip stopped but the temp dropped to 37, column is cooling
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SnowMan11
post Feb 1 2018, 05:10 PM
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20z HRRR has 1-2 inches areawide for the NYC area

This post has been edited by SnowMan11: Feb 1 2018, 05:11 PM


--------------------
Anthony
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moshe from brook...
post Feb 1 2018, 05:12 PM
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Rain just started
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SnowMan11
post Feb 1 2018, 05:17 PM
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Upton is calling for 1-2 inches area wide


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Anthony
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 1 2018, 05:20 PM
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At this point this storm looks like the best chance for snow for I95 out of any of the storms over the coming week.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 1 2018, 05:24 PM
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Temps have been hovering at 42-43F for the past 3 hours with steady light rain. Model guidance indicates a change over between 8-9 PM for me, but temps aren't forecast to be below freezing until the precip is almost over. Whatever slush accumulates should be a glorious icy mess by morning when temps should be ~10F

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Feb 1 2018, 05:25 PM


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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RobB
post Feb 1 2018, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 1 2018, 05:24 PM) *
Temps have been hovering at 42-43F for the past 3 hours with steady light rain. Model guidance indicates a change over between 8-9 PM for me, but temps aren't forecast to be below freezing until the precip is almost over. Whatever slush accumulates should be a glorious icy mess by morning when temps should be ~10F



Yuck!
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 1 2018, 05:30 PM
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Snow fog at the peak of Snowshoe Mountain

Snowshoe Mtn Webcam


--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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