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> Feb 1-2, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
NorEaster07
post Feb 1 2018, 06:24 PM
Post #21




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Drizzle here with a dropping temp of 38. Will have to put up my timelapse camera over night to see when the changeover happens. Not staying up for 1-2". Lol. Maybe. Lol
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Undertakerson
post Feb 1 2018, 06:36 PM
Post #22




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Attached Image
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stretchct
post Feb 1 2018, 06:39 PM
Post #23




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Drizzle whole ride home from New Haven. Temp went from 40 to 33 in the car. 34 currently on Darth Vader, winds ESE at barely, DP 31. NAM 3k and HRRR have me at 37 for now.

Current radar compared to 3k
Attached Image


Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Feb 1 2018, 06:43 PM
Post #24




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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 1 2018, 06:39 PM) *
Drizzle whole ride home from New Haven. Temp went from 40 to 33 in the car. 34 currently on Darth Vader, winds ESE at barely, DP 31. NAM 3k and HRRR have me at 37 for now.

Interestingly, the temps are forecast to drop. No spike up on either HRRR or nam 3k.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Feb 1 2018, 06:45 PM
Post #25




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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 1 2018, 04:52 PM) *
Acquired Learner's Permit today. Time to test it out tommorow biggrin.gif

Congrats - I'll be scheduling appointments away from SW CT for a while tongue.gif


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Feb 1 2018, 06:48 PM
Post #26




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Posts: 6,953
Joined: 12-December 08
From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470





MPING with some sleet in the HV and along I84

Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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HV Snowstorm
post Feb 1 2018, 06:51 PM
Post #27




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From: New Paltz, NY
Member No.: 17,327





QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 1 2018, 06:48 PM) *
MPING with some sleet in the HV and along I84

Attached Image


Still all rain here about 20 or 30 miles north of 84.
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Solstice
post Feb 1 2018, 06:57 PM
Post #28




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 1 2018, 06:45 PM) *
Congrats - I'll be scheduling appointments away from SW CT for a while tongue.gif


laugh.gif. I despise whenever someone at school says, "so dangerous out there... brakes failed." blink.gif It's a failure of them to adapt to conditions, not the ABS.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 1 2018, 07:04 PM
Post #29




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From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
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34F - a 3 degree drop in as many hours.


Attached Image


http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con....inv=0&t=cur
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Undertakerson
post Feb 1 2018, 07:07 PM
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 1 2018, 07:08 PM
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Tom Nizzle is saying lots of snow for the northeast this week and next week... he's screaming bread, milk and eggs, I just wanna face palm, they should be saying winter is returning to the NE
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NorEaster07
post Feb 1 2018, 07:21 PM
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3:15-7:15pmEST

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HV Snowstorm
post Feb 1 2018, 07:35 PM
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Rain has changed to big wet flakes here, all snow.
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 07:45 PM
Post #34




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Lot of you are confirming what I was fearing that we may be in for some surprises. Appears colder up north for you guys, UT really scaring me with 34 at H-burg! Down to 38 here already, lower than forecast. Dew is climbing slightly, but still only 30 now. I think than the temp drops are more than just evaporational cooling.
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 07:50 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 1 2018, 07:04 PM) *
34F - a 3 degree drop in as many hours.


Attached Image


http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con....inv=0&t=cur

This could be the culprit UT. Could explain the temp differences and reports. Our winds here were supposed to be out of the s/sw tonight until later. Currently, while light, they are out of the n/nw. Big difference.
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Hobie
post Feb 1 2018, 07:52 PM
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37.9 here in Woodbury and dropping. All rain, though driving home around 5 i saw a lot of wet flakes that splatted into liquid upon hitting the windshield. Colleagues are all pretty convinced of a delay in the AM.


--------------------
"They said that it was snowing in astounded tones upon the news.
I wonder why they're always so surprised, 'cause every year it snows."

Sandy Denny
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Keith3565
post Feb 1 2018, 07:55 PM
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Looks like all snow in the higher elevations now, here is blue knob ski resort about 2/3 the way up prob 2,000 feet.

https://www.wunderground.com/webcams/amikol...zyk/1/show.html
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tool483
post Feb 1 2018, 08:08 PM
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Update from Taunton. . could be slick even here in the valley

Temp is down to 37.2 . . .DP going down and at 25.8, it was 28 or 29 earlier. . .we had a high here of 42.8

Heavier slug of moisture about to move in, I wonder how much rain we will get before the switch

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

7 PM Update...

Main change to forecast this time around is to expand the Winter
Weather Advisory farther east...into NW Rhode Island, Boston
MetroWest and MetroNorth. Temperatures cooling below freezing as
a band of heavier snow moves through has at least a 50 percent
chance of generating hazardous weather. This headline is
intended due to impact on the area late tonight and Friday
morning and not for achieving numerical goals such as snow
accumulation.

Otherwise, sprinkles have worked into CT. Radar would suggest
more than is occurring, but dry air has been causing much of
that to evaporate on the way down. Additional light rain is
moving up from Eastern PA and will move across Southern New
England tonight.


Previous discussion...

Tonight into Friday morning...

*Accumulating snowfall and flash freeze during the morning commute*

Broad upper level trough across the region as potent shortwave
begins to approach from the Great Lakes. Southwesterly flow ahead of
this system will continue to saturate the column with an approaching
Arctic front from the north. Expect rain showers to become more
widespread during the evening and into the overnight hours.

Upper level shortwave pushing through the flow will drive an Arctic
front quickly through the region. This will result in temperatures
quickly falling and rain showers transitioning to snow prior to the
morning commute. While this is just a nuisance event, the
timing however will be quite impactful.

BUFKIT soundings show saturation through the column and thus when
cooler temperatures begin to advect into the region, expect a quick
transitions from rain to snow. The changeover will occur around
10 pm and 2 am for western/central MA and northern CT. For RI
and eastern MA around 2-5 am. If the front slows down by an hour
than snowfall amounts may be less and vice versa if it speeds
up. Trended temps towards the cooler guidance as this approaching
airmass is near 2-3 STD below normal.

Aside from the p-types, both the NAM and GFS continue to show decent
omega within the snowgrowth region. This will result in a brief
burst of snowfall that will quickly coat area surfaces ahead of the
morning commute. This is also in conjunction with strong F-gen and
secondary shortwave pushing through the flow. Snowfall amounts near
an inch an hour could occur which will limit vsbys below 0.5 a mile.
Fortunately this system is quite progressive and thus will be out of
the region by 10 am Friday morning.

In terms of snowfall, overall expect 0.5-2 inches of snowfall.
Valley locations may see less as BL temps may be a bit slow to flip,
but if the intensity of the snowfall is strong, then more snow is
possible. Went ahead and upgraded the high terrain of the Worcester
and Connecticut hills to a winter weather advisory for 2-4 inches of
snowfall. This is the region where confidence is the highest as
thermal will allow for precip to switch quicker and thus accumulate
more snow. Most hi-res guidance including the HRRR and HREF are
really pointing at this region. One area to watch is across
southeast MA. BL temps may still be a bit warm, but guidance is
pinning strong snowfall rates in this region. A winter weather adv
may be needed in this area mainly for the impact as this area will
be seeing accumulating snowfall right during the rush hours.
Temperatures will also be crashing towards the morning resulting
in a quick drop of surface temps. Thus cannot rule out the
potential for a flash freeze across the region.

Overall, complex system approaching from the west. Rain to start but
will flip to snow by the overnight hours. Motorist should be aware
of the accumulating snowfall potential and flash freeze during
the commute and plan for extra travel time.

This post has been edited by tool483: Feb 1 2018, 08:13 PM


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Winter lover
post Feb 1 2018, 08:10 PM
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Will this storm have 10:1 or kuchera ratios for NW CT??
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Solstice
post Feb 1 2018, 08:21 PM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Feb 1 2018, 08:10 PM) *
Will this storm have 10:1 or kuchera ratios for NW CT??


http://www.pivotalweather.com/ for Kuchera Ratios.

Looks like 12-16:1
Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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