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> Feb 1-2, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
stretchct
post Feb 1 2018, 08:23 PM
Post #41




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Newtown, CT
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Feb 1 2018, 08:10 PM) *
Will this storm have 10:1 or kuchera ratios for NW CT??

Kuchera ratios aren't a fixed ratio, so technically the Kuchera ratio can be 10:1

Pivotal weather provides the Kuchera ratio given any time for many of the models. I'll give you the Link to HRRR Kuchera Ratio via Pivotal

You can choose an hour, mouse over your house and see what the ratio will be. Or estimate it from the color scale.

hint: the further along in time, the higher the Kuchera ratio for most points.


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
30" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 1 2018, 08:30 PM
Post #42




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





Hmmm I wonder where the front is right now. 52/53 down here at bwi while back at home is sitting around 37.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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stretchct
post Feb 1 2018, 08:34 PM
Post #43




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 5,999
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From: Newtown, CT
Member No.: 16,470







Anyone in NEPA have snow? Is that sleet in Putnam County?

Heard some ticking here before.

33.7 here with 33 DP, no winds out of the SE. Seems to be all I'll get for evaporational cooling.

Current 925 temps say no to any snow or sleet.


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
30" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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Solstice
post Feb 1 2018, 08:41 PM
Post #44




Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 587
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (elevation 550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





@Winter lover seeing any snowflakes? NW CT getting some snow on radar returns.

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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TugHillrider
post Feb 1 2018, 08:41 PM
Post #45




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 1 2018, 08:34 PM) *


Anyone in NEPA have snow? Is that sleet in Putnam County?

Heard some ticking here before.

33.7 here with 33 DP, no winds out of the SE. Seems to be all I'll get for evaporational cooling.

Current 925 temps say no to any snow or sleet.




Had some flakes here about 30 min ago, was rain earlier around 6 PM ....
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 08:42 PM
Post #46




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Posts: 11,540
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 1 2018, 08:34 PM) *


Anyone in NEPA have snow? Is that sleet in Putnam County?

Heard some ticking here before.

33.7 here with 33 DP, no winds out of the SE. Seems to be all I'll get for evaporational cooling.

Current 925 temps say no to any snow or sleet.

Not quite sure about the 925's. Not quite sure I agree with Accu map of where the blue is occurring. I will be leaving office soon and my home is very near the southern tip of where the blue is touching. I will say that temps continue to drop. 36 now, which is almost 5 degrees lower than forecast for this time, and getting perilously close to the Mendoza line. Would think I would see some pellets on the way home if it is beginning to changeover. Again, wind direction is the problem.
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 08:44 PM
Post #47




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 1 2018, 08:34 PM) *


Anyone in NEPA have snow? Is that sleet in Putnam County?

Heard some ticking here before.

33.7 here with 33 DP, no winds out of the SE. Seems to be all I'll get for evaporational cooling.

Current 925 temps say no to any snow or sleet.

Oh, and will you please link these so I don't have to scroll through a page filled with these large maps tongue.gif tongue.gif
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Solstice
post Feb 1 2018, 08:46 PM
Post #48




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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 1 2018, 08:44 PM) *
Oh, and will you please link these so I don't have to scroll through a page filled with these large maps tongue.gif tongue.gif


Says the guy who quoted it twice... wink.gif


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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yamvmax
post Feb 1 2018, 08:54 PM
Post #49




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I was down to 37 a few hours ago, now I am up to 41. Must be that wind coming from the south.
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stretchct
post Feb 1 2018, 08:58 PM
Post #50




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From: Newtown, CT
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MPING with a snowflake now in Milford PA...

https://mping.ou.edu/display/


--------------------
Snow maps are pretty.

My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
30" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"[/color][color="#FF8C00"]
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 1 2018, 08:58 PM
Post #51




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From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Feb 1 2018, 08:30 PM) *
Hmmm I wonder where the front is right now. 52/53 down here at bwi while back at home is sitting around 37.

Oh wow I'm surprised it's that mild down the road from me at BWI

I'm as well located in the 95 corridor northeast of Baltimore and am currently in the low 40's

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Attached Image
 
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 1 2018, 09:00 PM
Post #52




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From: Millersville, PA
Member No.: 14,460





QUOTE(yamvmax @ Feb 1 2018, 10:54 PM) *
I was down to 37 a few hours ago, now I am up to 41. Must be that wind coming from the south.


Its the advancing of the front, they tend to warm temps up before the front crosses. Front came through here and we were at 52 from 46 earlier and now back down again to 47 with rain. Should stay all rain down here as dp continues to rise.

Oh and on those 925 maps they havent updated in about 2 hours from skew ts KMDT is bouncing off the freezing line aloft. So the 3C it shows is a little off right now.

I almost feel like where this snow/rain line sets up is about where we see it down the road?


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 1 2018, 09:01 PM
Post #53




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From: Millersville, PA
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 1 2018, 10:58 PM) *
Oh wow I'm surprised it's that mild down the road from me at BWI

I'm as well located in the 95 corridor northeast of Baltimore and am currently in the low 40's


Breeze off the bay helps you out of course we need an east wind for that here but now we have a west wind and dropped off since.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017
2017/2018


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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tool483
post Feb 1 2018, 09:05 PM
Post #54




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Rain here by Springfield, MA

temp at 35.6 and DP at 27.1

Hoping we get an early changeover before bed but who knows!?


--------------------
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 09:10 PM
Post #55




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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 1 2018, 08:46 PM) *
Says the guy who quoted it twice... wink.gif

You saw the smiley faces yes??
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HV Snowstorm
post Feb 1 2018, 09:11 PM
Post #56




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Mod snow here big flakes roads everything coverd....
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Solstice
post Feb 1 2018, 09:12 PM
Post #57




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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 1 2018, 09:10 PM) *
You saw the smiley faces yes??


Yes yes yes. Just trying to be funny but clearly not working sad.gif back to rainland I go, laugh.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 09:15 PM
Post #58




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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 1 2018, 08:58 PM) *
MPING with a snowflake now in Milford PA...

https://mping.ou.edu/display/

Stretch something is definitely up. Temps dropped like a rock, 33 in car, now 32 on phone. Haven't checked home temp yet, but sleet and snow were mixing in on windshield. Was going to bring up wet bulbs, but temps dropped to the dew point, so doubt they will go back up now.
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rtcemc
post Feb 1 2018, 09:16 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 1 2018, 09:12 PM) *
Yes yes yes. Just trying to be funny but clearly not working sad.gif back to rainland I go, laugh.gif.

Don't go, we need some humor around here. Lot of cranky people, and arguing, and nasty posts.
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HV Snowstorm
post Feb 1 2018, 09:16 PM
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Weird radar says all rain here been snowing good for a few hour now...
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