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> Feb 22-24th MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality (0-3days) last minute forecasts and observations
PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 10:27 AM
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Now understand this thread is simply for fun and based mainly off organic forecasting.

I find all the winter is over talk fascinating as just last year winter was over and we then got Stella, a highly ranked storm where many saw record snow.

So Winter really isn't over until spring is here.

If the mods want to delete this they absolutely can. I hope they don't as it took some work drafting this all up and matching the dates. The gfs does not go out this far so by rules I will use the daily CFS as my operational Guidance.

I fully expect some posters won't view this as fun and there will of course be some backlash, but none that I will really sweat nor entertain as I mentioned this is mainly for FUN in the middle of all the winter is over talk.


What sparked my interest this morning was the largest SOID drop that I've seen this winter.




The pattern currently seems dominant with the nothern stream winning out. The bsr has agreed regarding the recent pattern as well. Although the long range BSR has a ULL and surface map that generates a Storm from Sout to north.




This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 19 2018, 07:10 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 10:27 AM
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Now as we look at the long range East Asia rule we see the western ridge eastern trof look with a storm that rolls up through Japan 9 days prior. Here is the surface and the H5 anoms.




Now as I mentioned earlier the operational piece of this needs to be taken from the CFS daily which is laughable. So I agree that using it most likely is not very accurate but it does match the organic dates and rules for thread opening require some form of operational guidance.





Now if the MJO makes it back around in the short side of its 30-60day propagation we may see something helpful in that regard. As of right now It's pure speculation.

I hope posters understand that the idea behind this is to be the yin to the winters over yang. I know some get emotional about storms and snow and this thread may not be well received by them but it is only for FUN right now and a test for the SOID and other organic tools and signals.

Call it fun or ridiculous or even rain. I just hope it doesn't get deleted and if nothing occurs then let it fade with all the other 2-3week storm threats

Do hope others find enjoyment in this as I and maybe some others will

smile.gif


In closing I do believe there may need to be threads for the 11th and the 15th prior to this. The 15th is a date I like, and I'm sure others will open those threads. I almost opened the 15th this morning instead of this, but decided to give everything a small test from the OFM to our posters fortitude and/or emotions and conviction.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 2 2018, 10:45 AM


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JDClapper
post Feb 2 2018, 10:41 AM
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I am watching this period, but not worried about NJ. Looks like 50s and rain in DE with no school closures in NW CT.

Snowmaps? But seriously, how often has this OFM stuff verified this winter? This is way too far out to be opening a thread for. I recommend within NAMs wheelhouse.

Anyways, models might show sonething today, but it will change 50 times before it happens. Might even be a cutter or OTS with a snowdome over NEPA. Just not sure yet, what did DT say?


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 10:47 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 2 2018, 10:41 AM) *
I am watching this period, but not worried about NJ. Looks like 50s and rain in DE with no school closures in NW CT.

Snowmaps? But seriously, how often has this OFM stuff verified this winter? This is way too far out to be opening a thread for. I recommend within NAMs wheelhouse.

Anyways, models might show sonething today, but it will change 50 times before it happens. Might even be a cutter or OTS with a snowdome over NEPA. Just not sure yet, what did DT say?


Great post.

Cool thanks

laugh.gif laugh.gif

Will have to check DTs latest podcast. Shmmmmnerpp


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avsguy01
post Feb 2 2018, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 2 2018, 10:27 AM) *
Now understand this thread is simply for fun and based mainly off organic forecasting.

I find all the winter is over talk fascinating as just last year winter was over and we then got Stella, a highly ranked storm where many saw record snow.

So Winter really isn't over until spring is here.

If the mods want to delete this they absolutely can. I hope they don't as it took some work drafting this all up and matching the dates. The gfs does not go out this far so by rules I will use the daily CFS as my operational Guidance.

I fully expect some posters won't view this as fun and there will of course be some backlash, but none that I will really sweat nor entertain as I mentioned this is mainly for FUN in the middle of all the winter is over talk.
What sparked my interest this morning was the largest SOID drop that I've seen this winter.


The pattern currently seems dominant with the nothern stream winning out. The bsr has agreed regarding the recent pattern as well. Although the long range BSR has a ULL and surface map that generates a Storm from Sout to north.




Dang it Poc, you had to go and include "Mid Atl" in the title thread..... Pattern changes need thread changes....lol. Man I sure hope that largest SOID drop leads to something!
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bigben89
post Feb 2 2018, 11:11 AM
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Another LR post that belongs in the LR Thread.


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January 22-23, 2016 Snow Storm - 20 inches
February 8-9, 2017 DKBIII Snow - 7 inches
December 30, 2017 Clipper Snow - 6 inches
January 12-13, 2018 Changeover Snow - 3 inches
January 16, 2018 All Day "Cold Front" Snow - 5 inches
January 30, 2018 Snow Event - 3 inches
February 1-2, 2018 - Rain to Snow Event - 1 inch
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 11:15 AM
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So if taken verbatim the bsr loop for period shows the southern stream disturbance to a transfer? To the coast.



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PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 11:16 AM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Feb 2 2018, 10:52 AM) *
Dang it Poc, you had to go and include "Mid Atl" in the title thread..... Pattern changes need thread changes....lol. Man I sure hope that largest SOID drop leads to something!


That's the standard naming convention. It's exactly how it says to name them on the stickied post. Sorry but that's how it goes.



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 2 2018, 11:23 AM


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PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 11:24 AM
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cool thanks Ben


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PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 11:33 AM
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Here is the composites for an SOI drop of 10pts+ during a Nina. Thanks jdrenken for showing me these

Long paddock Daily SOI index, note the drops for yesterday and today



H5 anomalies


Fascinating 4 day prog

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 2 2018, 11:44 AM


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RobB
post Feb 2 2018, 11:32 AM
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QUOTE(bigben89 @ Feb 2 2018, 11:11 AM) *
Another LR post that belongs in the LR Thread.



You know that you do NOT have to read the threads simply because they have been created?
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avsguy01
post Feb 2 2018, 11:44 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 2 2018, 11:16 AM) *
That's the standard naming convention. It's exactly how it says to name them on the stickied post. Sorry but that's how it goes.

Not being serious....just going along with the joke of this winter.

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avsguy01
post Feb 2 2018, 11:45 AM
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delete

This post has been edited by avsguy01: Feb 2 2018, 11:46 AM
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 2 2018, 11:52 AM
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Now this is the true definition of long range, even too deep for steph curry
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 11:55 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 2 2018, 11:52 AM) *
Now this is the true definition of long range, even too deep for steph curry


Don't forget the Oklahoma freshman tre young, he's incredible!


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Snobal
post Feb 2 2018, 12:05 PM
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I dont have a problem with this long range thread but you wont see me in here much or making any contributions until it is inside of 5 days


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16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

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JDClapper
post Feb 2 2018, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 2 2018, 12:05 PM) *
I dont have a problem with this long range thread but you wont see me in here much or making any contributions until it is inside of 5 days


This is a set up... trying hard, not, to reply..... dont do it clap. Dont do it.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 2 2018, 12:25 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 2 2018, 10:27 AM) *
Now understand this thread is simply for fun and based mainly off organic forecasting.

I find all the winter is over talk fascinating as just last year winter was over and we then got Stella, a highly ranked storm where many saw record snow.

So Winter really isn't over until spring is here.

If the mods want to delete this they absolutely can. I hope they don't as it took some work drafting this all up and matching the dates. The gfs does not go out this far so by rules I will use the daily CFS as my operational Guidance.

I fully expect some posters won't view this as fun and there will of course be some backlash, but none that I will really sweat nor entertain as I mentioned this is mainly for FUN in the middle of all the winter is over talk.
What sparked my interest this morning was the largest SOID drop that I've seen this winter.


The pattern currently seems dominant with the nothern stream winning out. The bsr has agreed regarding the recent pattern as well. Although the long range BSR has a ULL and surface map that generates a Storm from Sout to north.




I must say POC, that is a robust system that is rather deep in pressure at such a southern latitude. Certainly something we didn't see often this year. Any indications on the BSR where it travels after that last image of it off the Carolina coast ?
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 2 2018, 12:25 PM) *
I must say POC, that is a robust system that is rather deep in pressure at such a southern latitude. Certainly something we didn't see often this year. Any indications on the BSR where it travels after that last image of it off the Carolina coast ?


That's the thing that caught my attention toon along with the soi plummet, is that the bsr seems to indicate a southern stream system. This is actually so far out that at the time of posting there were no more bsr images as they were the latest overlays out 19days. That is why I posted the loop above...



It appears to transfer up the coast and into the mid Atlantic. Remember this is not 1:1. Bsr sniffs out the pattern details come later.

I'll post the next set of bsr images when Available.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 2 2018, 01:41 PM


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Undertakerson
post Feb 2 2018, 04:15 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 2 2018, 12:10 PM) *
This is a set up... trying hard, not, to reply..... dont do it clap. Dont do it.

laugh.gif laugh.gif
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