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> Feb 22-24th MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality (0-3days) last minute forecasts and observations
PoconoSnow
post Feb 2 2018, 04:40 PM
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Nearly stationary ULL for days






Here on the surface you see what I referred to earlier. A possible surface transfer to and up the coast.



The little low marked with new is what you saw in the gif I made. Seems like a slow mover but tacgonna be quite a bit till we see.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 2 2018, 04:42 PM


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Solstice
post Feb 2 2018, 05:01 PM
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RRWT
Attached Image

Attached Image


I'm guessing there is heavy blending near the tail end of the forecast period, as today it doesn't look so extreme. It would hint towards deeper departures near the front end of the forecast period.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Feb 2 2018, 05:02 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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HV Snowstorm
post Feb 2 2018, 08:30 PM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 2 2018, 12:05 PM) *
I dont have a problem with this long range thread but you wont see me in here much or making any contributions until it is inside of 5 days


Contributions?
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bingobobbo
post Feb 3 2018, 01:36 AM
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Here is what it looks like, and percentage chances--just for fun:

Great Lakes Cutter 20
Miller B 20
Apps Runner 15
Alberta Clipper 12
All-Day Light Snow, a la Jan. 16 (not sure what category that was in) 8
Frontal Passage 7
Snow Doming/dissipated storm 6
Miller A 3
Fish Storm/OTS 9


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Vorticity-
post Feb 3 2018, 10:56 AM
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This is the big one.
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risingriver
post Feb 3 2018, 09:04 PM
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SOID drop? Is that what UTS does in his toilet shrine?

Help me out with the acronym please.
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stilko4
post Feb 4 2018, 02:33 PM
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We're due for a classic bm bomb... though id settle for flurries instead of rain


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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MaineJay
post Feb 5 2018, 05:35 AM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Feb 3 2018, 09:04 PM) *
SOID drop? Is that what UTS does in his toilet shrine?

Help me out with the acronym please.



SOI = southern oscillation index, the D is delta.

The SOI is a rough measure of ENSO, and refers to the pressure differences between Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. A swing in the SOI can mean a change in tropical convection or forcing, and in this case, could manifest itself as a trof moving through the eastern CONUS.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 5 2018, 05:36 AM


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jdrenken
post Feb 5 2018, 01:00 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Feb 3 2018, 08:04 PM) *
SOID drop? Is that what UTS does in his toilet shrine?

Help me out with the acronym please.


I spit out my Dr. Pepper reading this! laugh.gif


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
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Undertakerson
post Feb 5 2018, 06:03 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Feb 3 2018, 09:04 PM) *
SOID drop? Is that what UTS does in his toilet shrine?

Help me out with the acronym please.

lmao. It's adult beverage only in the shrine wink.gif
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LUCC
post Feb 7 2018, 01:53 PM
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Long range GFS does not look good, not even a fantasy storm. sad.gif


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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stilko4
post Feb 7 2018, 03:46 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 7 2018, 01:53 PM) *
Long range GFS does not look good, not even a fantasy storm. sad.gif

Cranky mentioned that days ago... we're in a bad pattern. Maybe the coast gets 1 or 2 more shots imo... but I'm starting to doubt that


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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EstorilM
post Feb 7 2018, 04:28 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 7 2018, 01:53 PM) *
Long range GFS does not look good, not even a fantasy storm. sad.gif

Yup and that's obviously saying a lot.

Had enough of these trace events all season - doesn't exactly look like we will be getting to the 13.1" avg. this year. Or half of it for that matter lol.
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 7 2018, 07:15 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 7 2018, 01:53 PM) *
Long range GFS does not look good, not even a fantasy storm. sad.gif


This thread is not for fantasy storms so not sure what you are coming here for

And literally the 12z gfs that ran right before this post was setting up a coastal pattern


Keep in mindddd that day 5 skill and after approaches zero in the modeling world
This is based off organic forecasting including the largest soi drop of the year, the Nina soi drop composites have been posted. If you want hr384 snowmaps 'tis not your thread, thus will change 1000 times.

Here was the end of 12z gfs before your post


If you are coming in here for ridiculous snow maps then don't.

We have a ssw mid month that may affect the long range and I'm monitoring it closely.

But to come asking for fantasy storms is crazy especually after the long range gfs set up a south to north trajectory finally. It's the best it's been in days to having the right trajectory and today you make that post.... awful timing lucc

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 7 2018, 07:16 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Feb 7 2018, 07:21 PM
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This thread is a test of organic signaling as much as it is to See if the posters in this board can handle a thread that has no clear modeling in range and a VERY CLEARLY WRITTEN MISSION STATENENT in the first two posts.

You better believe each and every poster coming in here begging for snowmaps will be dissapointed for now. Take your need for candy to the corner store for now and reread the first few posts.

I'm not posting as much lately but I will NOT let This thread turn into some broken candy machine. Take it to the long range thread. This is a fun experiment. Not a *bleep*sssing ground.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 7 2018, 07:22 PM


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Solstice
post Feb 7 2018, 07:32 PM
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Interesting storm development out east. That fits in the timeframe of the EAR, no?

[Click to Animate]

Attached Image


[Click to Animate]

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 7 2018, 07:44 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 7 2018, 07:32 PM) *
Interesting storm development out east. That fits in the timeframe of the EAR, no?

[Click to Animate]

Attached Image


[Click to Animate]

Attached Image


Just a note solstice east Asia modeling is very volatile

I see a typhoon in the animations above. It is a very good idea to watch the development there for this time any recurve thats gets picked up a trof can correlate with the Typhoon rule. . Continue to monitor.


We have to take into consideration the SSW occurring. SSWs usually take a 3-4 weeks for sensible weather to be affected but this one is a bit unprecedented in strength.

I will check back in tomorrow but montiting east Asia is one thing this thread is for so props to you.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 7 2018, 07:46 PM


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nard1
post Feb 8 2018, 09:05 AM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Feb 7 2018, 04:28 PM) *
Yup and that's obviously saying a lot.

Had enough of these trace events all season - doesn't exactly look like we will be getting to the 13.1" avg. this year. Or half of it for that matter lol.


Aren't you near Dulles area, they average around 22 inches... so way under for 2 seasons now.
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gulfofslides
post Feb 8 2018, 09:16 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 7 2018, 07:44 PM) *
Just a note solstice east Asia modeling is very volatile

I see a typhoon in the animations above. It is a very good idea to watch the development there for this time any recurve thats gets picked up a trof can correlate with the Typhoon rule. . Continue to monitor.
We have to take into consideration the SSW occurring. SSWs usually take a 3-4 weeks for sensible weather to be affected but this one is a bit unprecedented in strength.

I will check back in tomorrow but montiting east Asia is one thing this thread is for so props to you.

I forgot the date for the SSW event was it in feb or late Jan, do you know?
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LUCC
post Feb 8 2018, 11:44 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 7 2018, 07:15 PM) *
This thread is not for fantasy storms so not sure what you are coming here for

Just an observation about the GFS output and you, as well as anyone esle on here, knows about GFS 'fantasy' storms which it depicts quite ofter in it's Looong range. Wasn't directed at this thread or your 'organic' forecasting by any means.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
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