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> Feb 21-24th MidAtl/NE Storm, Cogitation: Long Range (10-15d+)
jdrenken
post Feb 8 2018, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Feb 8 2018, 08:16 AM) *
I forgot the date for the SSW event was it in feb or late Jan, do you know?


Well...JB was claiming late January even though he's a month off he'll probably claim victory.


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risingriver
post Feb 8 2018, 02:33 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 5 2018, 01:00 PM) *
I spit out my Dr. Pepper reading this! laugh.gif



And if we apply the OFM and EAR and other organic forecasting tools, that must mean somewhere in Japan two weeks ago some poor guy reverse pooped a Pepper without knowing the implications for JD, a fine upstanding American weather forum moderator. smile.gif

Just don't anyone go saying winter is over yet, even for the mid-Atlantic south of the Mason Dixon line. Remember, we wear artic parkas when the low temps are slightly below freezing, in addition to dutifully subsidizing the bread, tissue, and dairy industries at the mearest mention of ice or snow.

Seriously, I do see a hiatus for Mother Nature for a few weeks from Virginia as she concentrates on NY and New England. I doubt she stays gone all the way to the equinox, however. Virginia is for lovers, so it's a great place for Mother Nature and Old Man Winter to get together for a wild weekend of debauchery. Or so I can hope.

This post has been edited by risingriver: Feb 8 2018, 02:34 PM
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 8 2018, 09:49 PM
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Fwiw the gfs was also hinting at an east coast storm for this time period. However, the cfs looks a lot better. NAO seems to be at its lowest during this timeframe as well. Just nice to see it still there before it disappears at the dreaded 180 hour time frame. That seems to be the hour of death for storms on models.

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Feb 8 2018, 09:52 PM
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Solstice
post Feb 8 2018, 10:03 PM
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Doesn't look like that tropical system is recurving, sadly. Then again, I'm not sure what magnitude of "volatile" Poc meant, so there probably still is a chance, just slim.

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On the other hand GFS seems to be narrowing in on the EAR storm. Past 7 runs have had a decent bit of consistency.

[Click to Animate]
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Ok, not sure at all on this next part so correct me if needed! (It's probably needed... laugh.gif)
I noticed that there seems to be an abundance of storms impacting Iceland lately. Seemingly rotating right through it, almost like a Fujiwhara Effect with the previous lows. Now I'm wondering if that allows blocks to set up over Scandinavia and bottleneck everything, giving our region a shot at the cold air.

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--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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MaineJay
post Feb 9 2018, 06:05 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 8 2018, 10:03 PM) *
Doesn't look like that tropical system is recurving, sadly. Then again, I'm not sure what magnitude of "volatile" Poc meant, so there probably still is a chance, just slim.

On the other hand GFS seems to be narrowing in on the EAR storm. Past 7 runs have had a decent bit of consistency.

Ok, not sure at all on this next part so correct me if needed! (It's probably needed... laugh.gif)
I noticed that there seems to be an abundance of storms impacting Iceland lately. Seemingly rotating right through it, almost like a Fujiwhara Effect with the previous lows. Now I'm wondering if that allows blocks to set up over Scandinavia and bottleneck everything, giving our region a shot at the cold air.


One vortex to rule them all...

I think we are basically at the mercy of the Hudson Bay vortex. It's shape will determine the long wave pattern, and then you need it to dig a shortwave through the fast, quasi zonal flow.

But I do think you are correct in identifying that the storm development and creation of blocking are a "team effort". As blocking doesn't "make" a storm. But it does make the eye of the needle larger.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 9 2018, 06:06 AM


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stilko4
post Feb 9 2018, 05:17 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 8 2018, 09:49 PM) *
Fwiw the gfs was also hinting at an east coast storm for this time period. However, the cfs looks a lot better. NAO seems to be at its lowest during this timeframe as well. Just nice to see it still there before it disappears at the dreaded 180 hour time frame. That seems to be the hour of death for storms on models.

Cranky at least gives 2 possible ranges.. Steve d is horrible imo


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snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
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winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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Solstice
post Feb 9 2018, 09:29 PM
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12z 02/09 runs, forecast hour 150. Long frame-switch time for closer analysis.

[Click to Animate]
Attached Image


Still very fundamental differences dealing with the 960s low out east.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Feb 9 2018, 09:30 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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Solstice
post Feb 10 2018, 12:51 PM
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Where did Poc go? Haven't seen him in a day and a half sad.gif


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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gulfofslides
post Feb 10 2018, 01:12 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 8 2018, 12:47 PM) *
Well...JB was claiming late January even though he's a month off he'll probably claim victory.

That explains my source of confusion laugh.gif
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 10 2018, 04:58 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Feb 8 2018, 09:16 AM) *
I forgot the date for the SSW event was it in feb or late Jan, do you know?


It's already firing at 10mb




Very large spike in wave 2 zonal components



A bit earlier than forecasted I think, but alas that's why the first word In SSW stands for "Sudden"

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 10 2018, 05:21 PM


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PoconoSnow
post Feb 10 2018, 05:20 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 10 2018, 12:51 PM) *
Where did Poc go? Haven't seen him in a day and a half sad.gif


I'm around buddy, just been pretty busy. Feel free to pm me too. I see MJ answered your question. I would listen to him when he speaks. He carries a big stick. Lol


I'm starting to lean a stormy last week in february into the first couple days of March.

Soi tank was a multi day drop


**the daily soi number is based off the monthly calculations fwiw.

Do keep in mind our current stratospheric polar vortex looks like this today



It's a wildcard, normally one would lean 3-4 weeks for any sensible US impacts.

That being said it may top down affect our tropo vortex located here as of today I'll use 100mb as the trop approximately the tropopause (area where stratosphere and troposphere meet)



It has not shifted west yet nor have I seen any ensembles pointing in the lock of a -nam



The first thing a split originating top down and relocation of the vortex would do is affect the troposphere. I assume that's why so many people are callin for the -nam

But we have not had ONE SINGLE DAY this year below 0 in regards to the nao

If the normal lagged time if 3-4 weeks rung true we would be looking at first to second week of march for any effects downstairs.
So this is something I'm monitoring closely. If the tropo vortex gets pulled west it's possible a -nao could occur, right now im not holding breathe just observing.


But I'll go on record as saying it's possible we the people, of southern New England and above, may see two moderate storms the last week in feb to early march.

Keep on rolling solstice you are doing fine work.



PS to all: so a low solarar activity /sunspotless fireball has NOT correlated to a -nao this winter. It's been fairly aggressive and have had to rely on a multitude of other factors to slow down any of our storms.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 10 2018, 05:55 PM


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Undertakerson
post Feb 11 2018, 07:20 AM
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I would imagine the downstream response to behave similarly to how it would respond to the Typhoon Rule wink.gif


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 11 2018, 08:41 AM
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This will most likely look light years different on the 12z but we shall see
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Storms R us
post Feb 11 2018, 09:45 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 11 2018, 08:41 AM) *
This will most likely look light years different on the 12z but we shall see


New it would move north and be more a North Atlantic NE storm and things will keep changing as it’s a long ways off.

The way this winter has gone with warm weather upper 50s- low 60s and this coming week going to continue warm with more showers it looks to stay that way for at our area Dover DE. I’m sure we may see upper 30s and 40s here and there.

If it does I’m happy with it and like to see the change of cold and warm as it usually makes for some decent storms.

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Undertakerson
post Feb 11 2018, 09:48 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 11 2018, 07:20 AM) *
I would imagine the downstream response to behave similarly to how it would respond to the Typhoon Rule wink.gif


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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 11 2018, 08:41 AM) *
This will most likely look light years different on the 12z but we shall see

Friendly wager? I say it will not look vastly different on the 12z run.

You still have any of those steaks left over from last time? laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Storms R us
post Feb 11 2018, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 10 2018, 05:20 PM) *
I'm around buddy, just been pretty busy. Feel free to pm me too. I see MJ answered your question. I would listen to him when he speaks. He carries a big stick. Lol
I'm starting to lean a stormy last week in february into the first couple days of March.

Soi tank was a multi day drop


**the daily soi number is based off the monthly calculations fwiw.

Do keep in mind our current stratospheric polar vortex looks like this today



It's a wildcard, normally one would lean 3-4 weeks for any sensible US impacts.

That being said it may top down affect our tropo vortex located here as of today I'll use 100mb as the trop approximately the tropopause (area where stratosphere and troposphere meet)



It has not shifted west yet nor have I seen any ensembles pointing in the lock of a -nam



The first thing a split originating top down and relocation of the vortex would do is affect the troposphere. I assume that's why so many people are callin for the -nam

But we have not had ONE SINGLE DAY this year below 0 in regards to the nao

If the normal lagged time if 3-4 weeks rung true we would be looking at first to second week of march for any effects downstairs.
So this is something I'm monitoring closely. If the tropo vortex gets pulled west it's possible a -nao could occur, right now im not holding breathe just observing.
But I'll go on record as saying it's possible we the people, of southern New England and above, may see two moderate storms the last week in feb to early march.

Keep on rolling solstice you are doing fine work.
PS to all: so a low solarar activity /sunspotless fireball has NOT correlated to a -nao this winter. It's been fairly aggressive and have had to rely on a multitude of other factors to slow down any of our storms.

Pic - if you’re right that would be pretty much what the Farmers Almanac says for the beginning of March that a storm could drop feet of snow NE. How cool would that be
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stretchct
post Feb 11 2018, 02:19 PM
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12z Euro SLP - beautiful 1040 high in Quebec


but huh.gif blink.gif


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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis

2-7 1"
2-2 .5"
1-30 2"
1-17 1"
1-4 13.5"
12/30 1"
12/25 2"
12/14 1.5"
12/12 .5"
12/9 7"
30" season to date
First measurable Dec 9
First flakes Nov 7/Nov 10
First freeze Nov 9
First frost Oct 17

Seasonal snow - normal 44"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
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Solstice
post Feb 11 2018, 02:21 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 11 2018, 02:19 PM) *
12z Euro SLP - beautiful 1040 high in Quebec


but huh.gif blink.gif


Lol, what? How does that work?


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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gulfofslides
post Feb 11 2018, 02:25 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 11 2018, 02:21 PM) *
Lol, what? How does that work?

Something is amiss blink.gif
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PlanetMaster
post Feb 11 2018, 02:40 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 11 2018, 02:21 PM) *
Lol, what? How does that work?

Could be Euro is buying the SE ridge that is looking to be a major player next couple weeks. BTW I am buying it too. tongue.gif


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