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> Feb 22-24th MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality (0-3days) last minute forecasts and observations
PoconoSnow
post Feb 11 2018, 04:36 PM
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planet master we get it.

As if the long range winter thread and the 18-19 thread wasn't enough your appearance was destined for these dates too.

This was and still is a test for organics, now whether the split in the vortex is part of that I'll be watching.

And I buy nothing not only theveuro is selling at hr240 but any model.

I'm not around much right now but lets keep this thread focused and not a place to make predictions with winky emoticons

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 11 2018, 04:37 PM


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Removed_Member_PlanetMaster_*
post Feb 11 2018, 04:47 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 11 2018, 04:36 PM) *
planet master we get it.

As if the long range winter thread and the 18-19 thread wasn't enough your appearance was destined for these dates too.

This was and still is a test for organics, now whether the split in the vortex is part of that I'll be watching.

And I buy nothing not only theveuro is selling at hr240 but any model.

I'm not around much right now but lets keep this thread focused and not a place to make predictions with winky emoticons

ohmy.gif tongue.gif laugh.gif
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psu1313
post Feb 12 2018, 09:11 AM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 11 2018, 02:21 PM) *
Lol, what? How does that work?


500 mb charts. It's long range so take them as you will but this answers your question as to how it could look like that.

Nothing is amiss per se from a model perspective at that hour by looking at the 500mb printout.
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Solstice
post Feb 12 2018, 04:36 PM
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EAR Storm
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Looks like we have trended towards a stronger western ridge in the 15-17th timeframe. However, it has to stick around.


Notice the high pressure developing between Iceland and Scandinavia. I'd say the modeling is overly eager on developing that high pressure, but it's just a feeling, no evidence. Make what you want.

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This post has been edited by Solstice: Feb 12 2018, 04:37 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 14 2018, 11:55 AM
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Let's not forget it's closed low season too






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Undertakerson
post Feb 15 2018, 04:33 AM
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I'm not sure but I THINK this may be the system of interest here. Which looks very similar to set up for Saturday, but depicts a well placed SHP "in the attic" to provide a fresh cold feed.

One of these couple threats is almost bound to give us a storm where the warm/moist attacks the cold high. The models and ensembles have been more than flirting with that notion for a while now.


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Solstice
post Feb 15 2018, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 15 2018, 04:33 AM) *
I'm not sure but I THINK this may be the system of interest here. Which looks very similar to set up for Saturday, but depicts a well placed SHP "in the attic" to provide a fresh cold feed.

One of these couple threats is almost bound to give us a storm where the warm/moist attacks the cold high. The models and ensembles have been more than flirting with that notion for a while now.


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Also of note is the 12z 02/22/18 system.
[Click to Animate]
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--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 15 2018, 03:21 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 15 2018, 04:33 AM) *
I'm not sure but I THINK this may be the system of interest here. Which looks very similar to set up for Saturday, but depicts a well placed SHP "in the attic" to provide a fresh cold feed.

One of these couple threats is almost bound to give us a storm where the warm/moist attacks the cold high. The models and ensembles have been more than flirting with that notion for a while now.


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Yes

Basically this should be a 24-26 thread now as that what it's been eyeing in now

Maybe I'll date change because there is a trailer on a front that isn't this on the 20-22

Or we can let it die.

It was an experiment for ofm techniques

The soi depicted the stormy period properly.

I just think the ssw had an affect on the atmosphere and harmonics of the wave train

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 15 2018, 03:27 PM


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Solstice
post Feb 15 2018, 03:22 PM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 15 2018, 03:21 PM) *
Yes

Basically this should be a 24-25 thread now as that what it's been eyeing in now

Maybe I'll date change because there is a trailer on a front that isn't this on the 20-22


Oooops. Guess I put my foot in my mouth again... laugh.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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PoconoSnow
post Feb 15 2018, 03:57 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 15 2018, 03:22 PM) *
Oooops. Guess I put my foot in my mouth again... laugh.gif.


No you are fine

Nothing is settled yet

I saw the 22 on the gfs

It's the tail of this front



lots of time to settle out

But the day or days after the warmup are where to watch

So like the 25-26th

I'm not a big date changer so I'd rather let this die then move the dates to the 25-26th, unless people start using it for that maybe I'll adjust.


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JDClapper
post Feb 18 2018, 08:58 AM
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So this thread seems to be working out for an "event" .. but mostly wet.

But, I guess there's some hope... 48 hours trend on GFS has a little winter.. 0z Euro also did.

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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Feb 18 2018, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 18 2018, 08:58 AM) *
So this thread seems to be working out for an "event" .. but mostly wet.

But, I guess there's some hope... 48 hours trend on GFS has a little winter.. 0z Euro also did.

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Sooo many storms to discuss.

Good thing winter is "over" or we could not possibly keep up. wink.gif laugh.gif
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 18 2018, 11:31 AM
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Judging by the nws forecast for Thursday night and Friday during the day I see some CAD developing with over running precip, spells ZR for higher elevations along and north of RT80 in NE PA, NW NJ, and Southern Tier of NY
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Undertakerson
post Feb 18 2018, 11:33 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Feb 18 2018, 11:31 AM) *
Judging by the nws forecast for Thursday night and Friday during the day I see some CAD developing with over running precip, spells ZR for higher elevations along and north of RT80 in NE PA, NW NJ, and Southern Tier of NY

I believe there was mention in the CTP disco as well. Let me check

Yep -

QUOTE
Both 00Z ECENS and NAEFS indicate a dying cold front will push
through the region Wed PM, accompanied by a chance of showers.
This boundary will likely stall just south of Pa before
returning north as a warm front late in the week with a renewed
chance of rain. Med range models do indicate there could be just
enough low level cold air for the potential of some fzra Thu
night or early Friday across northern Pa.


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MaineJay
post Feb 18 2018, 05:19 PM
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UKie appears to have a couple waves in this time period


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PoconoSnow
post Feb 19 2018, 09:41 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 18 2018, 05:19 PM) *
UKie appears to have a couple waves in this time period


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Indeed and that's why I decided not to alter dates

Soi said constant storminess and looks like that's happening.



This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Feb 19 2018, 09:41 AM


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clindner00
post Feb 19 2018, 10:22 AM
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Long range 12z nam looks decent. Lots of sleet which is better than rain.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 19 2018, 10:36 AM
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Hmm - perfectly located 1040mb++ SHP feeding cold air directly into the approaching disturbance.

I'll be honing in on that feature for this one, plus ALL subsequent threats. I believe it is part of the "pattern" that we'll be "seeing" at least for the next month. To me, would be "logical" outcome once the northern jet gets throttled by downstream features at that latitude.
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JDClapper
post Feb 19 2018, 11:08 AM
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QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Feb 19 2018, 09:41 AM) *
Indeed and that's why I decided not to alter dates

Soi said constant storminess and looks like that's happening.

Weird.. usually these OFM signals don't work out.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 19 2018, 11:35 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 19 2018, 11:08 AM) *
Weird.. usually these OFM signals don't work out.


black magic it is.
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