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> Feb 9-12th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
Blizz
post Feb 3 2018, 01:52 PM
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First thread from me this season, lets try my luck!

Both the GFS and Euro showing a possible storm during this time frame.

Euro snow map (because I can't post the other images)




This post has been edited by Blizz: Feb 9 2018, 09:20 AM


--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 55.3"
Winter Storm Warnings: 3
Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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Blizz
post Feb 3 2018, 01:55 PM
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Tellies not favoring but no doubt threat of something is here!


--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 55.3"
Winter Storm Warnings: 3
Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
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phillyfan
post Feb 3 2018, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 3 2018, 01:55 PM) *


Tellies not favoring but no doubt threat of something is here!

I was holding off on starting this one but let's see where we go from here. I'm not holding my breath though.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5 (-6.5 from avg.)
2015-2016: 41 (+9 from avg.)
2014-2015: 48 (+16 from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25 from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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Undertakerson
post Feb 3 2018, 04:00 PM
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Maybe - it does have some TR/EAR support

Active active active
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shaulov4
post Feb 3 2018, 04:07 PM
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It has potential
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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2018, 01:38 PM
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Latest spin on the ECMWF says, why not.

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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stretchct
post Feb 4 2018, 02:24 PM
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Good ole snow/rain/snow for me. Couple inches of snow at least. Pretty juicy otherwise.

CODE
SAT 00Z 10-FEB  -5.6   -11.7    1034      67      92    0.00     553     526    
SAT 06Z 10-FEB  -5.6    -8.9    1035      83      99    0.01     554     527    
SAT 12Z 10-FEB  -2.1    -4.9    1032      92      99    0.10     556     531    
SAT 18Z 10-FEB   2.7    -0.6    1026      90      97    0.21     557     537    
SUN 00Z 11-FEB   3.8     2.5    1018      94      99    0.38     557     543    
SUN 06Z 11-FEB   2.1     1.6    1010      97      98    0.55     551     543    
SUN 12Z 11-FEB  -2.2    -2.0    1013      85      42    0.11     543     532


Normally this map is just a snow storm.


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis



First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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albanyweather
post Feb 4 2018, 04:39 PM
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raging +NAO may actually help this period.


--------------------
Snowfall 2017-2018: 66.6"
2016-2017: 58.7"
2015-2016: 13.1"
2014-2015: 72.1"
2013-2014: 79"
2012-2013: 48.8"
2011-2012: 23.3"
2010-2011: 80.2"
Seasonal Normal: 60.3"
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yamvmax
post Feb 4 2018, 09:26 PM
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So what's the latest on this for NYC area? Supposed to leave for Turks at 11 am Saturday. Wondering if I should try and get out Friday?
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Hail_on_Me
post Feb 4 2018, 11:53 PM
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Should probably remove mid atl from the title for now as no model really supports anything worth noting south of I84. Thus said things can change very rapidly once the prior systems move out so it will need to be watched but I think we can safely remove mid atl from the title.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 5 2018, 12:03 AM
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QUOTE(Hail_on_Me @ Feb 4 2018, 11:53 PM) *
Should probably remove mid atl from the title for now as no model really supports anything worth noting south of I84. Thus said things can change very rapidly once the prior systems move out so it will need to be watched but I think we can safely remove mid atl from the title.


Northern PA and NW NJ are definitely generally considered part of the MA and are definitely still in play for a winter weather event.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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jdrenken
post Feb 5 2018, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(Hail_on_Me @ Feb 4 2018, 10:53 PM) *
Should probably remove mid atl from the title for now as no model really supports anything worth noting south of I84. Thus said things can change very rapidly once the prior systems move out so it will need to be watched but I think we can safely remove mid atl from the title.


Even if it's rain in the lower MidAtl, the title doesn't change.


--------------------
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shaulov4
post Feb 5 2018, 05:03 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 5 2018, 04:20 PM) *
Even if it's rain in the lower MidAtl, the title doesn't change.

On top of that its a week out.... rolleyes.gif dry.gif
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phillyfan
post Feb 5 2018, 11:15 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Feb 5 2018, 05:03 PM) *
On top of that its a week out.... rolleyes.gif dry.gif

Little different on 0z GFS storm doesn't even make it much past the mason dixon line.


Compared to 18z:


This post has been edited by phillyfan: Feb 5 2018, 11:16 PM


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5 (-6.5 from avg.)
2015-2016: 41 (+9 from avg.)
2014-2015: 48 (+16 from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25 from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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Undertakerson
post Feb 6 2018, 03:41 AM
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Attached Image
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yamvmax
post Feb 6 2018, 08:37 AM
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Icon showing a pretty good rain event for MidAtl.
Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
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Snobal
post Feb 6 2018, 05:02 PM
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QUOTE(yamvmax @ Feb 6 2018, 08:37 AM) *
Icon showing a pretty good rain event for MidAtl.

looks correct. cold air is retreating at this time PNA going negative and NAO still positive, everything after this mid weeks storm is going to be on the warm side and temps slightly above normal.. there is hope down the road for late month as we may be dealing with a -NAO and a possible arctic plunge


--------------------
Annual Snowfall:
17'/18' = 54"( I am still counting)
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
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Undertakerson
post Feb 6 2018, 05:58 PM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 6 2018, 05:02 PM) *
looks correct. cold air is retreating at this time PNA going negative and NAO still positive, everything after this mid weeks storm is going to be on the warm side and temps slightly above normal.. there is hope down the road for late month as we may be dealing with a -NAO and a possible arctic plunge

Incorrect!

PNA is already negative, not "going" negative (yet we just had back to back cold storms - hmmmm)

NAO does not make cold air, necessarily as a E Based -NAO would be warm for us (no matter how negative)
Attached Image



IF there is a teleconnection that shows it "might" get cold again, it is the AO (not the NAO)

Attached Image

But hey, keep trying - either that or ask DT what he thinks (and then, copy and paste here of course) dry.gif
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jdrenken
post Feb 6 2018, 08:28 PM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 6 2018, 04:02 PM) *
looks correct. cold air is retreating at this time PNA going negative and NAO still positive, everything after this mid weeks storm is going to be on the warm side and temps slightly above normal.. there is hope down the road for late month as we may be dealing with a -NAO and a possible arctic plunge


Ummmm...


If you can't figure out what the current tellies show, don't comment on the future ones.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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Snobal
post Feb 7 2018, 10:02 AM
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you guys are correct about the PNA, I am sorry about that I should have worded that differently but the bottom line is the pattern is not good for a snowstorm in the MA and it wont be for quite some time. there is hope down the road for late Feb and into early March however.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall:
17'/18' = 54"( I am still counting)
16'/17' = 32"
15'/16' = 24"
14'/15' = 49"
13'/14' = 55"

Historical Average : 40"
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