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> Feb 9-12th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
Solstice
post Feb 7 2018, 10:44 AM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 7 2018, 10:02 AM) *
you guys are correct about the PNA, I am sorry about that I should have worded that differently but the bottom line is the pattern is not good for a snowstorm in the MA and it wont be for quite some time. there is hope down the road for late Feb and into early March however.


Isn't this a MidAtl/NE thread? Not just MidAtl?! What are you trying to say?


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 7 2018, 02:10 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 7 2018, 10:44 AM) *
Isn't this a MidAtl/NE thread? Not just MidAtl?! What are you trying to say?

He's trying to say that he will only listen to DT - a guy who forecasts for the Richmond VA region. I know - it makes little sense, but it's a free country ( I guess)
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ParsippanyWx
post Feb 7 2018, 02:33 PM
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Well, if he’s talking about HIS specific region in the MidAt then he might actually be correct. For everyone else in the NMidAt and NE, it’s meaningless.

This post has been edited by ParsippanyWx: Feb 7 2018, 02:34 PM


--------------------
Home Town: Tafton, PA (Pike County NEPA) Elevation 1700' - The old Tanglwood Ski area near Lake Wallenpaupack.
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avsguy01
post Feb 7 2018, 03:11 PM
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QUOTE(ParsippanyWx @ Feb 7 2018, 02:33 PM) *
Well, if hes talking about HIS specific region in the MidAt then he might actually be correct. For everyone else in the NMidAt and NE, its meaningless.


Not sure it's entirely meaningless. A large portion of the Mid-Atlantic appears to be on the torch side of things for the near to mid time frames. There may be some room for improvement regarding a winter event for the less fortunate areas, however Snobal's remarks are not that far off. Just more "click" and "PC" in these forums that love to bash when opportunities arise.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 7 2018, 06:27 PM
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QUOTE(ParsippanyWx @ Feb 7 2018, 02:33 PM) *
Well, if hes talking about HIS specific region in the MidAt then he might actually be correct. For everyone else in the NMidAt and NE, its meaningless.

It's meaningless regardless!
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Removed_Member_rtcemc_*
post Feb 7 2018, 06:59 PM
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QUOTE(ParsippanyWx @ Feb 7 2018, 02:33 PM) *
Well, if hes talking about HIS specific region in the MidAt then he might actually be correct. For everyone else in the NMidAt and NE, its meaningless.

Except he isn't. He is located in the northern half of PA, but whatever. This is now the 3rd storm in a week with snow and ice for his region, so just don't get the point but I never do. I was corrected by someone who said his original video was for DT's region, (which is south of PA I think). So perhaps mention that...We just aren't fans of DT here. That's all, cuz he is wrong a lot, makes bold statements, has a huge ego, and attacks people who call him out . So, it is directed more at quoting DT constantly, than at Snobal. FWIW, weak La Nina, lack of any blocking, it was always going to be tough for southern and mid atlantic to get much snow.

This post has been edited by rtcemc: Feb 7 2018, 07:47 PM
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JDClapper
post Feb 7 2018, 07:12 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Feb 7 2018, 03:11 PM) *
Not sure it's entirely meaningless. A large portion of the Mid-Atlantic appears to be on the torch side of things for the near to mid time frames. There may be some room for improvement regarding a winter event for the less fortunate areas, however Snobal's remarks are not that far off. Just more "click" and "PC" in these forums that love to bash when opportunities arise.


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--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Undertakerson
post Feb 7 2018, 07:19 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 7 2018, 07:12 PM) *
*clique

So - does PC = "point and clique" laugh.gif laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Feb 7 2018, 07:20 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 7 2018, 06:59 PM) *
Except he isn't. He is located in the northern half of PA, but whatever. This is now the 3rd storm in a week with snow and ice for his region, so just don't get the point but I never do. I was corrected by someone who said his original video was for DT's region, (which is south of PA I think). So perhaps mention that...We aren't just fans of DT here that's all, cuz he is wrong a lot, makes bold statements, has a huge ego, and attacks people who call him out . So, it is directed more at quoting DT constantly, than at Snobal. FWIW. Weak La Nina, lack of any blocking, it was always going to be tough for southern and mid atlantic to get much snow.

Give the man a cee-gar!
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jdrenken
post Feb 7 2018, 07:57 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Feb 7 2018, 02:11 PM) *
Not sure it's entirely meaningless. A large portion of the Mid-Atlantic appears to be on the torch side of things for the near to mid time frames. There may be some room for improvement regarding a winter event for the less fortunate areas, however Snobal's remarks are not that far off. Just more "click" and "PC" in these forums that love to bash when opportunities arise.


When said member makes consistent false statements about...
  1. DT forecast ONLY for the MidAtl region.
  2. States the PNA is going negative when its been such, low and behold...there are snowstorms in the MidAtl & NE.
  3. States he made a winter forecast yet its not to be found.
  4. Poo-Pooing each storm this winter claiming the next one is better.

You are bound to be subject of critique by members who have been here for years and developed a respect for being some of the best posting members. Is that a clique? Maybe...but those who don't know better need to know the truth.


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Storms R us
post Feb 7 2018, 08:55 PM
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This is another wet one for where I work by BWI and Camden DE area .

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Feb 7 2018, 08:57 PM
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Removed_Member_rtcemc_*
post Feb 7 2018, 09:49 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 7 2018, 07:57 PM) *
When said member makes consistent false statements about...
  1. DT forecast ONLY for the MidAtl region.
  2. States the PNA is going negative when its been such, low and behold...there are snowstorms in the MidAtl & NE.
  3. States he made a winter forecast yet its not to be found.
  4. Poo-Pooing each storm this winter claiming the next one is better.
You are bound to be subject of critique by members who have been here for years and developed a respect for being some of the best posting members. Is that a clique? Maybe...but those who don't know better need to know the truth.

omitted:
5. Goes on the longer range threads constantly and disrespects the people that put much time into learning the long range and teaching others, by stating you will not participate in those threads and state that no thread should be opened beyond 5 days, you might get some flack......
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Solstice
post Feb 7 2018, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 7 2018, 09:49 PM) *
omitted:
5. Goes on the longer range threads constantly and disrespects the people that put much time into learning the long range and teaching others, by stating you will not participate in those threads and state that no thread should be opened beyond 5 days, you might get some flack......


Wow, UTSnobal has been really rowdy lately! wink.gif laugh.gif.

Edit: It really shouldn't be a laughing matter. I shalt see myself the door for today.

This post has been edited by Solstice: Feb 7 2018, 10:21 PM


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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ParsippanyWx
post Feb 8 2018, 12:36 AM
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Wow. Didnt mean to cause such a ruckus with a simple two sentence comment. I wasnt really picking on Snobal, just reiterating the point that this is a MidAt/NE thread which covers a huge geographical area, not just MidAt. Besides, although Ive been a member since 2009, I hardly ever post so my statements should cary minimal weight. 😉

This post has been edited by ParsippanyWx: Feb 8 2018, 12:42 AM


--------------------
Home Town: Tafton, PA (Pike County NEPA) Elevation 1700' - The old Tanglwood Ski area near Lake Wallenpaupack.
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avsguy01
post Feb 8 2018, 06:38 AM
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Looking forward to all this rain for the summer months that will be harsh here in DE.
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telejunkie
post Feb 8 2018, 11:26 AM
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Wowee (said in my best Christopher Walken voice) I mean its looking like the same exact track...

12z GFS coming in a little colder for NNY & NNE...see if we can get a little more push of cold.


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5
12/12 - 9 1/17 - 7 3/2 -7
12/22 - 5 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9 3/13-3/15 - 17

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be -Vonnegut
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 8 2018, 01:04 PM
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This one may outperform last event due to better ratios..Looks like another moderate type event..

Kbgm

QUOTE
Snow will shift further north to mainly Finger Lakes-NY Thruway corridor late in the day, and even north of that by later Friday night. Even though liquid-equivalent of precipitation will not be terribly heavy, one look at thermal profiles reveals that as moistening occurs, temperatures will become nearly isothermal at dendritic growth temperatures for a very thick layer of roughly 10 thousand feet. For at least the front end of incoming snow late morning through mid afternoon Friday, this should easily promote snow-to-liquid ratios of 20-to-1 if not even more.


This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Feb 8 2018, 01:04 PM
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LUCC
post Feb 8 2018, 01:19 PM
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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Feb 8 2018, 11:26 AM) *
Wowee (said in my best Christopher Walken voice) I mean it’s looking like the same exact track...

12z GFS coming in a little colder for NNY & NNE...see if we can get a little more push of cold.

Geez, Jackpot of monsoon rain right over CNJ. dry.gif



This post has been edited by LUCC: Feb 8 2018, 01:20 PM
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Miller A
post Feb 8 2018, 01:37 PM
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QUOTE(Snobal @ Feb 6 2018, 05:02 PM) *
looks correct. cold air is retreating at this time PNA going negative and NAO still positive, everything after this mid weeks storm is going to be on the warm side and temps slightly above normal.. there is hope down the road for late month as we may be dealing with a -NAO and a possible arctic plunge



QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 6 2018, 05:58 PM) *
Incorrect!

PNA is already negative, not "going" negative (yet we just had back to back cold storms - hmmmm)

NAO does not make cold air, necessarily as a E Based -NAO would be warm for us (no matter how negative)

IF there is a teleconnection that shows it "might" get cold again, it is the AO (not the NAO)

But hey, keep trying - either that or ask DT what he thinks (and then, copy and paste here of course) dry.gif


QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 6 2018, 08:28 PM) *
Ummmm...

If you can't figure out what the current tellies show, don't comment on the future ones.


QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 7 2018, 10:44 AM) *
Isn't this a MidAtl/NE thread? Not just MidAtl?! What are you trying to say?


QUOTE(ParsippanyWx @ Feb 7 2018, 02:33 PM) *
Well, if hes talking about HIS specific region in the MidAt then he might actually be correct. For everyone else in the NMidAt and NE, its meaningless.


QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 7 2018, 06:59 PM) *
Except he isn't. He is located in the northern half of PA, but whatever. This is now the 3rd storm in a week with snow and ice for his region, so just don't get the point but I never do. I was corrected by someone who said his original video was for DT's region, (which is south of PA I think). So perhaps mention that...We just aren't fans of DT here. That's all, cuz he is wrong a lot, makes bold statements, has a huge ego, and attacks people who call him out . So, it is directed more at quoting DT constantly, than at Snobal. FWIW, weak La Nina, lack of any blocking, it was always going to be tough for southern and mid atlantic to get much snow.



QUOTE(jdrenken @ Feb 7 2018, 07:57 PM) *
When said member makes consistent false statements about...
  1. DT forecast ONLY for the MidAtl region.
  2. States the PNA is going negative when its been such, low and behold...there are snowstorms in the MidAtl & NE.
  3. States he made a winter forecast yet its not to be found.
  4. Poo-Pooing each storm this winter claiming the next one is better.
You are bound to be subject of critique by members who have been here for years and developed a respect for being some of the best posting members. Is that a clique? Maybe...but those who don't know better need to know the truth.


DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!
DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!
DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!

This post has been edited by Miller A: Feb 8 2018, 01:40 PM
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"


Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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RobB
post Feb 8 2018, 02:01 PM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Feb 8 2018, 01:37 PM) *
DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!
DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!
DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!



smile.gif Love this....
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