Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

9 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Feb 9-12th MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 8 2018, 02:13 PM
Post #41




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,476
Joined: 1-February 11
Member No.: 25,332





QUOTE(Miller A @ Feb 8 2018, 01:37 PM) *
DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!
DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!
DOG PILE ON THE RABBIT!


Miller A. At some point I'm going to start issuing "comedy" awards in here, and rest assured you will receive one. The past couple of months your posts have been nothing short of fantastic.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


MODELS ARE TERRIBLE.

SNOWMAPS ARE WORSE.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Miller A
post Feb 8 2018, 02:42 PM
Post #42




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,308
Joined: 5-December 08
From: Sussex, NJ
Member No.: 16,359





laugh.gif
thx. Ruff time for me recently so I gotta try to make myself laugh sometimes. As long as i don't get greedy and overdo it.

MillerTiming is Everything!


--------------------
12/09 04.00" MA
12/14 02.00" MA
12/25 02.70" co-op obs
12/30 00.90" MA
01/04 04.80" trained spotter
01/16 06.00" MA
01/30 01.00" social media
02/04 00.60" co-op obs
02/06 02.50" trained spotter
02/17 03.50" MA

SEASON TOTAL 28.00"


TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Black05GSR
post Feb 8 2018, 03:15 PM
Post #43




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 566
Joined: 26-December 12
From: Linden, NJ and Albrightsville, PA (1850ft)
Member No.: 27,529





QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2018, 01:19 PM) *
Geez, Jackpot of monsoon rain right over CNJ. dry.gif


At least you're still the capital laugh.gif


--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5")
Total: 34.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6")
Total: 21.75"
Avg. 26"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
phillyfan
post Feb 8 2018, 04:36 PM
Post #44




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,489
Joined: 13-January 08
From: Wernersville, PA (Berks Co.)
Member No.: 12,448





Could be some Tuesday morning freezing rain fun fun.
NWS:
QUOTE
Tuesday
A chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18
Winter Storm WArning: 2/17
Flood Watch 2/10-11

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"

Total: 24.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5 (-6.5 from avg.)
2015-2016: 41 (+9 from avg.)
2014-2015: 48 (+16 from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25 from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PlanetMaster
post Feb 8 2018, 07:35 PM
Post #45




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 765
Joined: 11-January 11
From: Babylon, NY
Member No.: 25,093





Winter seems to have ended on the coast, maybe DT was right? huh.gif

Nothing but 50's and rain next 10 days forecasted here, although that means nothing it is the overall feeling which has played out correctly so far in February. Hope all you inland warriors get pasted a couple more times at least before Spring.


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
longislander
post Feb 8 2018, 08:02 PM
Post #46




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,082
Joined: 24-August 11
Member No.: 25,937





QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 8 2018, 01:19 PM) *
Geez, Jackpot of monsoon rain right over CNJ. dry.gif



Hopefully that band will shift, I don't need 4" of rain on LI.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
rtcemc
post Feb 8 2018, 09:27 PM
Post #47




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,557
Joined: 26-December 08
From: New Tripoli, PA
Member No.: 16,666





QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 8 2018, 07:35 PM) *
Winter seems to have ended on the coast, maybe DT was right? huh.gif

Nothing but 50's and rain next 10 days forecasted here, although that means nothing it is the overall feeling which has played out correctly so far in February. Hope all you inland warriors get pasted a couple more times at least before Spring.

And a welcome change for a few of us in here, including me. I feel bad for the ones that have missed out though. Up here, it pretty much has been non stop, except for our normal Jan thaw. It is impossible to get all the snow and ice up around the property from the last couple, and the low sun doesn't help. So wash away please, but wouldn't you know it, it gets warm and NOW we finally get a cluttered pattern of 3 straight days of precip! Don't think winter is over though, as there are some decent signs for later this month into March, and with enough cold air and blocking areas such as yours can still get it.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Feb 9 2018, 06:18 AM
Post #48




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,608
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





Just a long drawn out event.

SREFs

P-type PoPs
Attached Image


QPF
Attached Image


Temp
Attached Image


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Solstice
post Feb 9 2018, 06:26 AM
Post #49




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 608
Joined: 8-December 17
From: New Canaan, CT (elevation 550 ft)
Member No.: 31,816





SREF Low Centers - Sunday
Attached Image


SREF Low Centers - Monday
Attached Image


#LockItIn? laugh.gif


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Feb 9 2018, 06:44 AM
Post #50




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,608
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





GYX snow

Most likely

Attached Image


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
MaineJay
post Feb 9 2018, 07:08 AM
Post #51




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 9,608
Joined: 15-February 13
From: 25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
Member No.: 28,288





GYX

QUOTE
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
For tonight and Saturday a warm front will gradually lift
northward across the region. Warm air advection snow
will gradually breakout from southwest to northeast across the
area tonight bringing an inch or two to southern New Hampshire
and adjacent southwest Maine by morning and 2 to 3 inches
elsewhere
. On Saturday...snow mixes with sleet before changing
to rain as warmer air slides northward into the area. Little or
no additional accumulation expected for southern New Hampshire
and adjacent southwest Maine with another inch or two elsewhere
before the first batch of precipitation tapers off during the
afternoon hours. The mountains and international border area
will be the last to mix with or change to rain before the
precipitation briefly winds down by late afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Overall the extended forecast features a strengthening Wrn
Atlantic ridge. With general CONUS trofing to our W this will
help tighten the gradient and develop deep SWly flow aloft. This
flow pattern should also tend to be active...as S/WV trofs eject
out of the base of the longer wave trof and track towards the
Northeast. Ensemble guidance forecasts the Wrn Atlantic ridge to
be beaten back some towards midweek and beyond...as L/WV trofing
builds E.

Much of the focus in the extended was earlier in the period...as
a slow moving frontal boundary will be the anchor for precip
thru the weekend. Late Sat the warm front will be lifting
Nwd...ushered along by the deep SWly flow aloft. Weakly
confluent flow aloft and building surface high pressure across
Quebec will also help to try and wedge in the low level cold.
The major question that remains is how cold is that low level
air mass.
Confidence is fairly high with precip occurring with
the ejecting S/WV trof...and with warmer air aloft penetrating
into parts of Nrn New England. Model guidance is once again
bullish on temps climbing above 32 degrees at the surface. That
being said...ensemble probabilities actually decrease further
into Sun...suggesting there may be a push of low level cold from
the NE as high pressure takes up favorable positioning for cold
air damming. This introduces the possibility for all ptypes Sun
into Sun night
. The mtns have the best chance of hanging on to
all snow...while the coast and Srn NH have the best chance of
remaining majority rain. A winter wx advisory may eventually be
needed for some areas of freezing rain. And while there will be
snowfall...it looks to be long enough duration and light enough
amounts that it may even fall below advisory criteria. For now I
have hedged towards cooler temps Sun...though still just above
freezing for many areas. Future shifts will be able to refine
this further...as high-res guidance better captures the low
level cold.


--------------------
Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 07:52 AM
Post #52




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,535
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





Many local mets are feeing a couple inches worth of rain this weekend is very plausible for here and around MBY.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JDClapper
post Feb 9 2018, 09:16 AM
Post #53




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 12,057
Joined: 28-October 11
From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
Member No.: 26,143





Not sure where to post this very insignificant OBS.. but, light snow as commenced .. expecting 1" or less.. although very healthy returns only miles north of town.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 20"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Blizz
post Feb 9 2018, 09:20 AM
Post #54




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,265
Joined: 18-December 10
From: Sugarloaf, PA
Member No.: 24,736





Changed dates to include today's clipper


--------------------
WINTER 17-18
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
Season to Date: 26.9"
Winter Storm Warnings: 1
Winter Weather Advisories: 7


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2017)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LUCC
post Feb 9 2018, 09:37 AM
Post #55




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,586
Joined: 19-December 08
From: Robbinsville, NJ
Member No.: 16,588





QUOTE(longislander @ Feb 8 2018, 08:02 PM) *
Hopefully that band will shift, I don't need 4" of rain on LI.

For some reason when my area is in the rain jackpot several days out it usually pans out. rolleyes.gif

Steady




This post has been edited by LUCC: Feb 9 2018, 09:51 AM


--------------------

Winter '17-'18
12/9 - 5.5"
12/13-14 - 1.5"
12/15 - 2.25"
12/30 - 4"
1/4 - 6.5"
1/17 - 1"

Winter '16-'17 Snow total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Snow total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Snow total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62.0"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ParsippanyWx
post Feb 9 2018, 09:51 AM
Post #56




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 551
Joined: 11-January 09
From: Tafton, PA
Member No.: 16,872





QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 9 2018, 09:37 AM) *
For some reason when my area is in the rain jackpot several days out it usually pans out. rolleyes.gif

Steady


Rain almost ALWAYS pans out. It뭩 like gospel. Snow on the other hand....


--------------------
Home Town: Tafton, PA (Pike County NEPA) Elevation 1700' - The old Tanglwood Ski area near Lake Wallenpaupack.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 10:37 AM
Post #57




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,535
Joined: 4-January 10
From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore
Member No.: 20,753





QUOTE(ParsippanyWx @ Feb 9 2018, 09:51 AM) *
Rain almost ALWAYS pans out. It뭩 like gospel. Snow on the other hand....

Yea man you aren't kidding, it's darn near an act of GOD to get SNOW to pan out as modeled.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stxprowl
post Feb 9 2018, 10:58 AM
Post #58




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 4,112
Joined: 13-December 09
From: Cherry Hill, NJ 5 Miles East of Philly!
Member No.: 20,184





Got rain?
Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
snowyweatherman
post Feb 9 2018, 11:02 AM
Post #59




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,184
Joined: 25-January 08
From: Pleasant Mt,PA
Member No.: 13,101





snow seems farther south then modeled for today?


--------------------
Current Snow Depth 2

2016-17Snowfall = 85
2017-18 snowfall 7

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
HV Snowstorm
post Feb 9 2018, 11:13 AM
Post #60




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,787
Joined: 31-January 09
From: New Paltz, NY
Member No.: 17,327





Radar looks decent for this little event, hope no virga and we'll have a nice snow falling afternoon.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

9 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 5 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 22nd February 2018 - 02:10 AM