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> Feb 3-4, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
NorEaster07
post Feb 3 2018, 10:13 PM
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Good luck and have fun,

Link to the Forecasting Thread.

Precip starting to blossom into the regions.. still lots of virga around but figured I start this up.


QUOTE
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure has moved off the Virginia coast this evening,
with southerly flow established

A storm system will move north of the region Sunday dragging a
cold front through the area later in the day and overnight.

Thickening clouds late this evening in broad region of warm
advection in advance of low pressure over the Grt Lks.

Steady or slowly rising temps expected overnight, beneath
thickening cloud cover and warm advection.

Lead shortwave, over the southern plains at 00Z, will link up
with Gulf of Mexico moisture tonight, resulting in a blossoming
area of precip over the Tenn/Ohio valleys tonight.


Loop



Tracks

Attached Image


Surface

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Alerts

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Snow Total Forecast

Attached Image



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Feb 4 2018, 03:10 PM
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JDClapper
post Feb 3 2018, 10:16 PM
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0z snowmaps

RGEM, 3k NAM, NAM


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 10:19 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 3 2018, 10:16 PM) *
0z snowmaps

RGEM, 3k NAM, NAM


Attached Image


Attached Image


Attached Image

Serious cutoff geez.
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 10:20 PM
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Is it me, or is there some serious stuff down south?? Seems more intense that modeled.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/...er-radar?play=1
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NorEaster07
post Feb 3 2018, 10:21 PM
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Infrared and Upper Heights. Almost so flat in the East surprised there's even a SSW flow. But trough is digging a bit tomorrow.

Attached Image

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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 3 2018, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 10:19 PM) *
Serious cutoff geez.

You aren't kidding man!
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 10:26 PM
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Clap, when you come back on, any thoughts on WRF performance this winter? I really can't recall.
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JDClapper
post Feb 3 2018, 10:28 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 10:26 PM) *
Clap, when you come back on, any thoughts on WRF performance this winter? I really can't recall.


Couldn't give you a great opinion... haven't followed much at all.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Feb 3 2018, 10:29 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 10:20 PM) *
Is it me, or is there some serious stuff down south?? Seems more intense that modeled.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/...er-radar?play=1


Looks nice and juicy .. would like to see that thrown at the cold air tomorrow. smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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TheComet
post Feb 3 2018, 10:35 PM
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A cool 18F tonight at an elevation of approximately 1900'. Let's see the effect of elevation here. I haven't looked outside to see if cloudy or not. Wind is calm.


--------------------
Long Pond, PA
Elevation: 1865 Feet
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 3 2018, 10:37 PM
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Vernon NJ 2100hrs - 24deg, 22:30hrs 26deg, the air does have a milder feel to it, almost can smell the rain. sad.gif sad.gif sad.gif
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NorEaster07
post Feb 3 2018, 10:43 PM
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Low of 12 here this morning and rain 10hrs later.

Lows today

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JDClapper
post Feb 3 2018, 10:43 PM
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And for good measure... 0z GFS


Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 10:45 PM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Feb 3 2018, 10:37 PM) *
Vernon NJ 2100hrs - 24deg, 22:30hrs 26deg, the air does have a milder feel to it, almost can smell the rain. sad.gif sad.gif sad.gif

Actually, think that is just the atmosphere moistening up. Check your RH. Dews still real low and climbing. Over running comes much quicker than modeled. Levels "moisten up" rapidly. Pretty sure the radar blows up in the next few hours, and want to watch tomorrow big time with what goes on down south.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 3 2018, 10:47 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 10:45 PM) *
Actually, think that is just the atmosphere moistening up. Check your RH. Dews still real low and climbing. Over running comes much quicker than modeled. Levels "moisten up" rapidly. Pretty sure the radar blows up in the next few hours, and want to watch tomorrow big time with what goes on down south.


Bingo.

Won't be surprised to see precip on my doorstep when I wake up tomorrow.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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mainiac
post Feb 3 2018, 10:52 PM
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I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of NWSCaribou putting out a warning. Right on that 7"+ line. Beyond that, looks like a nuisance storm.

Currently -1F and cloudy.


--------------------
Snowfall

Current Season: 128.1"

Last Season: 2016-2017 - 129.6"
Best Season: 2007-2008 - 197.8"
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 3 2018, 10:56 PM
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QUOTE(mainiac @ Feb 3 2018, 10:52 PM) *
I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of NWSCaribou putting out a warning. Right on that 7"+ line. Beyond that, looks like a nuisance storm.

Currently -1F and cloudy.


Thank you for the report from the arctic circle. Now get back to feeding the penguins.


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 11:00 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 3 2018, 10:47 PM) *
Bingo.

Won't be surprised to see precip on my doorstep when I wake up tomorrow.

Will take a touch to moisten up, but unless you are getting up real early, pretty sure snow will have entered, sat down and had breakfast, and will be cleaning up the dishes by the time you wake up and enter the kitchen laugh.gif
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 11:01 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 3 2018, 10:56 PM) *
Thank you for the report from the arctic circle. Now get back to feeding the penguins.

laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
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pawatch
post Feb 3 2018, 11:03 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 3 2018, 10:43 PM) *
And for good measure... 0z GFS


Attached Image


GFS definitely looking a lot better than earlier today.


--------------------
Inquiring minds want to know
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