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> Feb 3-4, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
mainiac
post Feb 3 2018, 11:04 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 3 2018, 11:56 PM) *
Thank you for the report from the arctic circle. Now get back to feeding the penguins.


The peanut gallery is tossing daggers tonight, lol.

Edit: Although they look like kangaroos...



This post has been edited by mainiac: Feb 3 2018, 11:09 PM


--------------------
Snowfall

Current Season: 128.1"

Last Season: 2016-2017 - 129.6"
Best Season: 2007-2008 - 197.8"
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 11:15 PM
Post #22




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QUOTE(mainiac @ Feb 3 2018, 11:04 PM) *
The peanut gallery is tossing daggers tonight, lol.

Just ignore him. By about 6 pm, the sauce takes over and it isn't pretty. I have learned to handle it better laugh.gif
Where is Maine anyway???b
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NorEaster07
post Feb 3 2018, 11:24 PM
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Current temps at 5000'. Interestingly it's still below freezing at this level over much of the regions.. You can see the southerly warm push into Kentucky, WV, Ohio now

Surface in the 30s everywhere north of Georgia right now. Ashame there's no Quebec High to give us a little extra CAD action but should be interesting to see where the cold air hangs on


Attached Image


Those areas with a deeper snowpack should hold onto the colder more than areas without. But could also mean freezing rain as it warms up aloft.


Attached Image

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mainiac
post Feb 3 2018, 11:29 PM
Post #24




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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 4 2018, 12:15 AM) *
Where is Maine anyway???b


I wish I could help. Unfortunately, my astrolabe is useless with these overcast skies.



Oh, and in case anyone was wondering about the global distribution of penguins. cool.gif



--------------------
Snowfall

Current Season: 128.1"

Last Season: 2016-2017 - 129.6"
Best Season: 2007-2008 - 197.8"
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 11:35 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 3 2018, 11:24 PM) *
Current temps at 5000'. Interestingly it's still below freezing at this level over much of the regions.. You can see the southerly warm push into Kentucky, WV, Ohio now

Surface in the 30s everywhere north of Georgia right now. Ashame there's no Quebec High to give us a little extra CAD action but should be interesting to see where the cold air hangs on


Attached Image


Those areas with a deeper snowpack should hold onto the colder more than areas without. But could also mean freezing rain as it warms up aloft.


Attached Image

Yea that was expected with the warm lobe, lets see the battle tomorrow north vs. south energies. That's where the rubber meets the road, IMHO.
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 11:39 PM
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If only the women in my life did this. Never mind, and read between the lines laugh.gif laugh.gif G'nite all....


https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/northeast...n/weather-radar
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rtcemc
post Feb 3 2018, 11:47 PM
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Not the radar I pictured guys. NOT at all. At 11:30. Check the chit down south and check the direction ohmy.gif
The winter of the unknown. I hope they blow up the rest of the balloons ! Sooo much more fun. It is like when I was growing up.... ExceptI didn't...... I heard that MD unsure.gif unsure.gif unsure.gif

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/...er-radar?play=1

This post has been edited by rtcemc: Feb 3 2018, 11:48 PM
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NorEaster07
post Feb 3 2018, 11:48 PM
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Looks up....nothing..

Looks at radar... Virga

Attached Image


Looks at forecast... Nothing till 3pm

Attached Image


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LoveNYCSnow
post Feb 3 2018, 11:55 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 3 2018, 11:47 PM) *
Not the radar I pictured guys. NOT at all. At 11:30. Check the chit down south and check the direction ohmy.gif
The winter of the unknown. I hope they blow up the rest of the balloons ! Sooo much more fun. It is like when I was growing up.... ExceptI didn't...... I heard that MD unsure.gif unsure.gif unsure.gif

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/national/...er-radar?play=1


Seems to be a lot of virga. But yea if the stuff down south actually makes it to where the cold air is, someone could be in for a surprise major storm.

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Feb 3 2018, 11:55 PM


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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rtcemc
post Feb 4 2018, 12:05 AM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Feb 3 2018, 11:55 PM) *
Seems to be a lot of virga. But yea if the stuff down south actually makes it to where the cold air is, someone could be in for a surprise major storm.

Yea, early virga was forecast, but not this early. Dews arising up - from 10 to 14, RH up from 50 to 54% here. Just a lot earlier, and will have some surprised peeps that were traveling early tomorrow morn.
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Mike W IN herkim...
post Feb 4 2018, 03:13 AM
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Kbuf snowmap

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Miller A
post Feb 4 2018, 03:44 AM
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QUOTE(KENNYP2339 @ Feb 3 2018, 10:37 PM) *
Vernon NJ 2100hrs - 24deg, 22:30hrs 26deg, the air does have a milder feel to it, almost can smell the rain. sad.gif sad.gif sad.gif

sigh
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Feb 4 2018, 03:55 AM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Feb 4 2018, 03:44 AM) *
sigh



I'm at 27. The lowest of the night. But that temperature Trend that you posted would indicate why the models keep getting a bit warmer


--------------------
Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 04:44 AM
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geeter1
post Feb 4 2018, 04:50 AM
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Light snow here

Wind calm

Temp 26F

wink.gif wink.gif rolleyes.gif
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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2018, 05:17 AM
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The MAG site from NCEP has 925mb temps for the 3km NAM.

For stretch, I saw him ask about it.

Attached Image

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php

Even though it's 18.3, seems the warm push will just be too great, and the high pressure orientation is not conducive to CAD up here as loveNYCsnow mentioned.

Hope the ski areas can hold out at least.

Attached Image


GYX

QUOTE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Will be issuing winter weather advisories for northern areas for
today and tonight. This is a long event, so we are using the 24
hour criteria for snowfall. Snow totals will be highly dependent
on terrain with the higher peaks picking up the most snowfall.

The atmosphere remains initially dry, however some of the
precipitation on the latest RADAR images is reaching the ground,
albeit very light. Clear skies for a portion of the night last
night has left a wide array of temperatures across the region as
mixing increases with time.

A persistent southerly flow with continued warm air advection
will allow for temperatures to climb above freezing outside the
mountains today.
This is in response to a surface area of low
pressure which will remain well to our west over the eastern
Great Lakes region. The resultant warming will cause much of the
precipitation over southern and central areas to change to
rain. Afternoon highs will top out near 40 degrees along the
coast on southerly winds. Winds could gusts as high as 35 mph
along the Midcoast region
.

Highest rainfall totals will be along and near the Midcoast
region of Maine. Most drains should be clear at this point, so
street flooding is not likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As the primary low moves up the Saint Lawrence River Valley,
expect a secondary area of low pressure to form over the Mid
Atlantic region this evening. This fast moving system will move
quickly up the coast, bringing more precipitation to the
forecast area. Southerly winds will allow for a non-diurnal
temperature curves for much of the night
before a cold front
crosses the region late at night.

With increasing dew points, fog will form over southern and
central portions of the forecast area.


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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geeter1
post Feb 4 2018, 05:22 AM
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Just went outside to get the newspaper. I can actually
see the moon thru the clouds. The moon angle does
not appear to be hampering the snowfall sticking to the
ground . laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2018, 05:28 AM
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Baroclinic leaf forming over the SE. incoming shortwave shows up nicely in Montana.

Attached Image

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sa...;s=rammb-slider


--------------------
The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 05:45 AM
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QUOTE(geeter1 @ Feb 4 2018, 05:22 AM) *
Just went outside to get the newspaper. I can actually
see the moon thru the clouds. The moon angle does
not appear to be hampering the snowfall sticking to the
ground . laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Yeah, early February moon angle is not too tough to overcomes, it's about the middle of the month that it can torch the surface laugh.gif
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Blizz
post Feb 4 2018, 05:47 AM
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00z Euro


--------------------
WINTERS
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
17-18 Winter Storm Warnings: 3
17-18 Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2018)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4, 55.3""
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