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> Feb 3-4, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
Blizz
post Feb 4 2018, 05:48 AM
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Anyone notice the lone Winter Storm Warning in PA?



--------------------
WINTERS
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
17-18 Winter Storm Warnings: 3
17-18 Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2018)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4, 55.3""
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 05:54 AM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 4 2018, 05:48 AM) *
Anyone notice the lone Winter Storm Warning in PA?


Yeah - mentioned to Clapper in a side convo. Good ol' Sullivan right?
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 06:05 AM
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Now that MDBR is awake, I can post the HRRR output laugh.gif


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MaineJay
post Feb 4 2018, 06:06 AM
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Radar

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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 4 2018, 06:06 AM
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Already coated up here. 26F. Snowing at a nice clip. From window guessing 1 maybe 2". Have a feeling that several places from Hagerstown through PA West of I81 reach a warning criteria storm. Especially elevated areas.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 06:07 AM
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 4 2018, 06:08 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 4 2018, 06:05 AM) *
Now that MDBR is awake, I can post the HRRR output laugh.gif


How dare you. laugh.gif


--------------------
Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 06:11 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 4 2018, 06:08 AM) *
How dare you. laugh.gif

Ima pokin' bears left and right this morning. Some Sundays just make me feel that way. laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 06:18 AM
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Ratios per Kuchera method, suggest 8:1 with some regions struggling to reach that, and the typically cold regions being the only 10:1 I can find (Poconos, etc)
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Blizz
post Feb 4 2018, 06:21 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 4 2018, 06:05 AM) *
Now that MDBR is awake, I can post the HRRR output laugh.gif


Attached Image



Attached Image


Saw this, didn't want to post it... I think its counting virga as snow


--------------------
WINTERS
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
17-18 Winter Storm Warnings: 3
17-18 Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2018)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4, 55.3""
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 06:26 AM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 4 2018, 06:21 AM) *
Saw this, didn't want to post it... I think its counting virga as snow


Non ratio maps appears to be similar

unsure.gif

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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 4 2018, 06:26 AM
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Even thought I'm not dilligent about measuring snow, don't want to,provide bad details. Just walked the dog and there's .75-1" out there. Snowing lightly now.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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JDClapper
post Feb 4 2018, 06:29 AM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 4 2018, 05:48 AM) *
Anyone notice the lone Winter Storm Warning in PA?




QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 4 2018, 05:54 AM) *
Yeah - mentioned to Clapper in a side convo. Good ol' Sullivan right?


Yessir.. that is mountain country right there. No surprise they hoisted one up for them. The 143 people and 20,321 deer will be excited.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Feb 4 2018, 06:30 AM
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Oh yeah, light snow started apparently not too long ago. Everything dusted.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Keith3565
post Feb 4 2018, 06:34 AM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 4 2018, 06:26 AM) *
Even thought I'm not dilligent about measuring snow, don't want to,provide bad details. Just walked the dog and there's .75-1" out there. Snowing lightly now.


Nice man, glad to see some snow getting put down early out there. Well in a way I'm worried because I'm making a 5 hour trek to blue knob in about hour but hoping the roads don't get to bad until Hagerstown-breezewood. I'm not overly familiar with dealing with elevation events due to where I live but I know from 15 years of past trips up there they seem to do good on these events at over preforming on the mountain.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 06:34 AM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 4 2018, 06:30 AM) *
Oh yeah, light snow started apparently not too long ago. Everything dusted.

waiting for the first flakes to show on METAR (and to see from the sky)

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Blizz
post Feb 4 2018, 06:38 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 4 2018, 06:26 AM) *
Non ratio maps appears to be similar

unsure.gif

Attached Image


Yeah but the model itself is showing it snowing right now when it isn't at the start of the run.


--------------------
WINTERS
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
17-18 Winter Storm Warnings: 3
17-18 Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2018)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4, 55.3""
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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 06:43 AM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 4 2018, 06:38 AM) *
Yeah but the model itself is showing it snowing right now when it isn't at the start of the run.

Well - no model is perfect in that regard. But it is snowing up your way, according to METAR. Probably not at every location but the snow symbols are up on the map

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Undertakerson
post Feb 4 2018, 06:52 AM
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Virga boundary breached, now snowing atop UTS Hill.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 4 2018, 06:56 AM
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QUOTE(Keith3565 @ Feb 4 2018, 06:34 AM) *
Nice man, glad to see some snow getting put down early out there. Well in a way I'm worried because I'm making a 5 hour trek to blue knob in about hour but hoping the roads don't get to bad until Hagerstown-breezewood. I'm not overly familiar with dealing with elevation events due to where I live but I know from 15 years of past trips up there they seem to do good on these events at over preforming on the mountain.


The knob will be a winter wonderland this weekend. Be careful crossing the hilltops on 70/76. Its going to be dicey.


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Blue Ridge Bouncer


Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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