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> Feb 15-16 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations (Former Forecast Thread)
jdrenken
post Feb 7 2018, 07:50 PM
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QUOTE(shaulov4 @ Feb 7 2018, 06:02 PM) *
Oh UT dont you just love to tease laugh.gif This is thr most unlikely scenario, two suppressed lows and just cold enough for snow in the mid atlantic lol yea ok


I refuse to believe anything going against what DT says.


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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 7 2018, 09:03 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 7 2018, 07:08 PM) *
Huh? What date change?

Oh I was commenting on this post in reference to the date change is all

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Storms R us
post Feb 7 2018, 09:04 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 7 2018, 06:18 PM) *
Just b/c this thread needs a little love (and dopamine is the ultimate "love" )

[attachment=348019:Capture.PNG]



The one that just came through was a doozy with rain/ice and my brother up by the DE Water Gap didn't hardly get much snow. The next one coming up ;this weekend will be wet at least for BWI and DE, we seem to be in a quick cold and then warm with a storm. Things aren't looking to promising.

One thing is there were some strong storms doing a lot of damage in the south. My prayers got out to them.
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Storms R us
post Feb 7 2018, 09:22 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 7 2018, 07:05 PM) *
If only....

I see above the mention of (changing the dates) now has that been done yet?

Just checking to see if the thread title (15th-17th) is indeed correct?



Yeah especially for your area has been snow starved for some time and you know what they say, there is always next winter.
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Solstice
post Feb 7 2018, 10:06 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 7 2018, 09:03 PM) *
Oh I was commenting on this post in reference to the date change is all


I accidentally put the title month as Jan instead of Feb. Lol.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 7 2018, 11:07 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 7 2018, 09:22 PM) *
Yeah especially for your area has been snow starved for some time and you know what they say, there is always next winter.

Yea so far I've picked up 9" to date, I keep track thru out the winter.

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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 7 2018, 11:08 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 7 2018, 10:06 PM) *
I accidentally put the title month as Jan instead of Feb. Lol.

Ohhhhhh gotcha biggrin.gif
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MaineJay
post Feb 8 2018, 06:35 AM
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There doesn't seem to be a ton of room for amplification in this flow, but the models will be playing around with the shape of that Hudson Bay vortex a bit. Perhaps it can dig a shortwave, but it's probably to tall an order.

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It almost has that quasi zonal, fast flow feel. While not a great pattern, it can hide surprises.

The operational ECMWF shows just one possible outcome. It'll change.

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MaineJay
post Feb 8 2018, 07:09 AM
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Just looked through all 51 members of the ECMWF ensemble, many solutions, including a few that look like the BSR image in the top post.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/usa-east/


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MaineJay
post Feb 8 2018, 07:24 AM
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GEFS spaghetti is just a mess. No way the models will be able to time northern steam impulses. Not saying a big storm suddenly shows up, but not discounting any solutions at this juncture.

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This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 8 2018, 08:07 AM


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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 8 2018, 09:28 AM
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NAO going negative may help as it's the only time it's forecasted to go negative all year . However Steve D thinks otherwise.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 8 2018, 09:33 AM
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I for one would like a fresh blanket of snow for this time frame as I'm heading out to the mountains in Weastern Maryland for some snow boarding and snowmobiling.

Just a few inches would be all I need, not looking for anything spectacular wink.gif
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EstorilM
post Feb 8 2018, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 8 2018, 09:33 AM) *
I for one would like a fresh blanket of snow for this time frame as I'm heading out to the mountains in Weastern Maryland for some snow boarding and snowmobiling.

Just a few inches would be all I need, not looking for anything spectacular wink.gif

The way this season is going - a few inches WOULD be spectacular. laugh.gif
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snowdoug
post Feb 8 2018, 11:50 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 8 2018, 10:33 AM) *
I for one would like a fresh blanket of snow for this time frame as I'm heading out to the mountains in Weastern Maryland for some snow boarding and snowmobiling.

Just a few inches would be all I need, not looking for anything spectacular ;)


I'de be estatic if BWI region in central MD. received one snowy winter storm this season.
Still some time to go yet.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 8 2018, 03:29 PM
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QUOTE(EstorilM @ Feb 8 2018, 10:22 AM) *
The way this season is going - a few inches WOULD be spectacular. laugh.gif

Oh yea man no doubt!

QUOTE(snowdoug @ Feb 8 2018, 11:50 AM) *
I'de be estatic if BWI region in central MD. received one snowy winter storm this season.
Still some time to go yet.

Much agreed, just a simple "Warning" criteria type snowstorm.
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jdrenken
post Feb 8 2018, 03:36 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 8 2018, 08:28 AM) *
NAO going negative may help as it's the only time it's forecasted to go negative all year . However Steve D thinks otherwise.


Paging DT...Paging DT


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.


The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting
Organicforecasting Blog


If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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telejunkie
post Feb 8 2018, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 8 2018, 09:28 AM) *
NAO going negative may help as it's the only time it's forecasted to go negative all year . However Steve D thinks otherwise.

EPS way more aggressive the GEFS with building heights across the north atlantic...

This post has been edited by telejunkie: Feb 8 2018, 03:40 PM
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--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 74”

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 77"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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avsguy01
post Feb 8 2018, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 8 2018, 03:29 PM) *
Oh yea man no doubt!
Much agreed, just a simple "Warning" criteria type snowstorm.

whats a warning?
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yamvmax
post Feb 8 2018, 08:52 PM
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Gee, what's with all the winters over comments? So it doesn't snow late February through March?
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 8 2018, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(yamvmax @ Feb 8 2018, 08:52 PM) *
Gee, what's with all the winters over comments? So it doesn't snow late February through March?


I think the last few warm storms and the next 10 days being snowless are really starting to get to people, especially Those who haven't had a decent storm all year.
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