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> Feb 15-16 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations (Former Forecast Thread)
MaineJay
post Feb 9 2018, 06:10 AM
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The experimental FV3 models look similar to the ECMWF. They bring a very quick mover through. As stretch had previously noted in another thread, things move so fast that 24 hour frames are barely useful.


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ECMWF

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Just no time, nor room, to amplify.


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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 06:24 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 9 2018, 06:10 AM) *
The experimental FV3 models look similar to the ECMWF. They bring a very quick mover through. As stretch had previously noted in another thread, things move so fast that 24 hour frames are barely useful.


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ECMWF

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Just no time, nor room, to amplify.

That somewhat supports an over running event that "could" produce some winter N of the boundary.

At the moment, this time period seems to be "too warm" for MidAtl below 40N, which is nothing new of course. However, I am seeing the time pd just after these dates, as we know the rule of "warm up in winter, watch out for what follows" is bound to come into play.

I'm nearly tempted to open a Daytona 500/ P Day thread (first time both have been on same day, since 2011) based solely on that "JD-ism" and some features I've been watching within the ensembles. With a split flow at present, it will be tough for models to get this or the Daytona500 time pd correct.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 07:54 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 8 2018, 09:28 PM) *
I think the last few warm storms and the next 10 days being snowless are really starting to get to people, especially Those who haven't had a decent storm all year.

Much agreed pal
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 08:00 AM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Feb 8 2018, 04:19 PM) *
whats a warning?

Meaning here IMBY this season has yet to experience a snowfall worthy enough for the issuance of a "Winter Storm Warning" for 5" plus, rather just a view "Advisory" type minor events.

The accumulation amounts needed for WWA's and WSW's vary region to region.
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snowdoug
post Feb 9 2018, 09:03 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 8 2018, 04:29 PM) *
Oh yea man no doubt!
Much agreed, just a simple "Warning" criteria type snowstorm.


Exactly, just one WSW would restore balance to our local weather universe.
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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 9 2018, 09:06 AM
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QUOTE(snowdoug @ Feb 9 2018, 09:03 AM) *
Exactly, just one WSW would restore balance to our local weather universe.


ok, I'll stop wishing for an end to winter so the central MD/NOVA crew can cash in on some white stuff. laugh.gif


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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 10:17 AM
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Key words: GRAIN of SALT

For nothing more then fun and and that sweet taste of your favorite candy the 0z EURO spit out this thin ribbon of love, again merely for the sake of fun folks tongue.gif

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avsguy01
post Feb 9 2018, 11:10 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 9 2018, 10:17 AM) *
Key words: GRAIN of SALT

For nothing more then fun and and that sweet taste of your favorite candy the 0z EURO spit out this thin ribbon of love, again merely for the sake of fun folks tongue.gif

Closest thing I've seen for most of Jan and so far all of Feb that gives hope for something for some areas in DE that haven't seen squat since the new years cold snap. Ill take an over running event at this point! Anything.....
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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 11:40 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 06:24 AM) *
That somewhat supports an over running event that "could" produce some winter N of the boundary.

At the moment, this time period seems to be "too warm" for MidAtl below 40N, which is nothing new of course. However, I am seeing the time pd just after these dates, as we know the rule of "warm up in winter, watch out for what follows" is bound to come into play.

I'm nearly tempted to open a Daytona 500/ P Day thread (first time both have been on same day, since 2011) based solely on that "JD-ism" and some features I've been watching within the ensembles. With a split flow at present, it will be tough for models to get this or the Daytona500 time pd correct.

Well, now then, what is this the 12z GFS is selling? wink.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...0912&fh=222
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phillyfan
post Feb 9 2018, 11:44 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 11:40 AM) *
Well, now then, what is this the 12z GFS is selling? wink.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...0912&fh=222

Hmm... a southern slider for now....


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avsguy01
post Feb 9 2018, 11:46 AM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 9 2018, 11:44 AM) *
Hmm... a southern slider for now....

Hot diggity.... although if this slides south for places like DE beaches and NoVA and NC I am going to puke!!! LOL
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stretchct
post Feb 9 2018, 11:47 AM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 11:40 AM) *
Well, now then, what is this the 12z GFS is selling? wink.gif

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo...0912&fh=222

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Undertakerson
post Feb 9 2018, 11:56 AM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 9 2018, 11:47 AM) *
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15 year anniversary.

wink.gif

https://web.archive.org/web/20120728115942/...urfaceMaps.html
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phillyfan
post Feb 9 2018, 11:57 AM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Feb 9 2018, 11:46 AM) *
Hot diggity.... although if this slides south for places like DE beaches and NoVA and NC I am going to puke!!! LOL

Nope it'll come north wink.gif


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Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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Storms R us
post Feb 9 2018, 12:29 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 9 2018, 11:47 AM) *
1049 HP

Of course now we get cold weather after all the precipitation leaves. Still long way away and the way things have been going with cold comes just to moderate to warm for precipitation to come in and then cold afterwards. It’s the battle of warm and cold.

Funny thing the Farmers Almanac shows the possibility of a NE snow storm for March.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Feb 9 2018, 12:31 PM
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Storms R us
post Feb 9 2018, 12:32 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 9 2018, 11:57 AM) *
Nope it'll come north wink.gif

Yeah north like this past storm
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konka
post Feb 9 2018, 01:59 PM
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QUOTE(avsguy01 @ Feb 9 2018, 11:46 AM) *
Hot diggity.... although if this slides south for places like DE beaches and NoVA and NC I am going to puke!!! LOL


I hear ya. Here in DC with our 3.1" so far this year another miss to the south would be brutal...

This post has been edited by konka: Feb 9 2018, 01:59 PM
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MP - Bucks Co PA
post Feb 9 2018, 02:18 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 9 2018, 10:17 AM) *
Key words: GRAIN of SALT

For nothing more then fun and and that sweet taste of your favorite candy the 0z EURO spit out this thin ribbon of love, again merely for the sake of fun folks tongue.gif


And the snow hole over I-95 from Philly to Trenton continues lol! Hopefully this may be a case where North trends work in our favor! 😜😜😜
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 02:32 PM
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QUOTE(MP - Bucks Co PA @ Feb 9 2018, 02:18 PM) *
And the snow hole over I-95 from Philly to Trenton continues lol! Hopefully this may be a case where North trends work in our favor! 😜😜😜

Absolutely pal, need it further North then this current depiction 👍🏻
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 9 2018, 02:33 PM
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Now being there is a new thread opened for the 18th-19th, should THIS one be closed as if I'm understanding correctly it's the same threat correct?
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