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> Feb 15-16 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations (Former Forecast Thread)
Solstice
post Feb 12 2018, 08:14 PM
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Updating thread description to Short Range.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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rtcemc
post Feb 12 2018, 08:27 PM
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I'm just trying to land in a thread that ain't ripping. Safe to post here unsure.gif unsure.gif RC seems to be the calm one in here anymore laugh.gif Having a hard time seeing us getting to forecast high of 61 here on Thursday. Seems like a big reach. Highs colder than forecast have been the theme all winter. Still have some snow in spots, and ground is still cold and frozen, so thinking that will "temper" the real mild temps. If we do get there though, I shall welcome it. There certainly isn't any big ole high around for this one.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 12 2018, 08:38 PM
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QUOTE(sunday_driver @ Feb 12 2018, 06:10 PM) *
Rain in February is a serious drag.

Indeed it is
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Feb 12 2018, 11:58 PM
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Wow is the CMC and icon worlds apart from the gfs


--------------------
Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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PlanetMaster
post Feb 13 2018, 02:02 AM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 12 2018, 08:27 PM) *
Safe to post here unsure.gif unsure.gif RC seems to be the calm one in here anymore laugh.gif

And I can honestly say that is one of the most shocking things through all this.

QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 12 2018, 08:27 PM) *
Having a hard time seeing us getting to forecast high of 61 here on Thursday. Seems like a big reach. Highs colder than forecast have been the theme all winter. Still have some snow in spots, and ground is still cold and frozen, so thinking that will "temper" the real mild temps. If we do get there though, I shall welcome it. There certainly isn't any big ole high around for this one.

Forecast went from 40's to 50's and now 60's in about a 24 hours span. Should be close to 70 by tomorrow it seems the way things are going. Sure will feel good having that warmth around and make it tough to want to go back to a wintry scenario but Winter is still in the deck and will be dealt out in March at some point. Don't despair your mud this week will translate to ground blooms next rtcemc.


--------------------
Join in the conversation at https://www.wxdisco.com/
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Feb 13 2018, 03:33 AM
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Euro is close. At 12z it was similar to gfs
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--------------------
Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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rtcemc
post Feb 13 2018, 12:33 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 13 2018, 02:02 AM) *
And I can honestly say that is one of the most shocking things through all this.
Forecast went from 40's to 50's and now 60's in about a 24 hours span. Should be close to 70 by tomorrow it seems the way things are going. Sure will feel good having that warmth around and make it tough to want to go back to a wintry scenario but Winter is still in the deck and will be dealt out in March at some point. Don't despair your mud this week will translate to ground blooms next rtcemc.

Oh no despair here PM, looking forward to warmth. Cold started way too early around these parts. Constant barrage of body shots from end November through early January left me weak and tired. If we get anywhere near 60 Thursday, and the showers do clear out, head set will be on and long walk or run incoming. As you said though, will have to put old sneakers on cuz it will be mud city. Looks like we hold onto the mild for Friday now also.
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risingriver
post Feb 13 2018, 02:36 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 13 2018, 12:33 PM) *
Oh no despair here PM, looking forward to warmth. Cold started way too early around these parts. Constant barrage of body shots from end November through early January left me weak and tired. If we get anywhere near 60 Thursday, and the showers do clear out, head set will be on and long walk or run incoming. As you said though, will have to put old sneakers on cuz it will be mud city. Looks like we hold onto the mild for Friday now also.



Sunday was a nice squishy change for my area, RTC. 70+ with mud and flood made for a nice afternoon to be outside observing the impacts of our 3-5 inches of rain. But now I am ready for a return to reality. Gotta enjoy cold Februaries while we can in case they are soon a thing of the past. laugh.gif
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rtcemc
post Feb 13 2018, 03:53 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Feb 13 2018, 02:36 PM) *
Sunday was a nice squishy change for my area, RTC. 70+ with mud and flood made for a nice afternoon to be outside observing the impacts of our 3-5 inches of rain. But now I am ready for a return to reality. Gotta enjoy cold Februaries while we can in case they are soon a thing of the past. laugh.gif

Agree. I would kill for 70 +, by the way. I guess it is mid Feb here laugh.gif
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Solstice
post Feb 13 2018, 03:56 PM
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Maybe some spotty backend mood flakes?
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--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 13 2018, 11:15 PM
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Worth mentioning that the subtropical moisture tap opening up is very rich and is drawing off anomalously warm SSTs across both the Gulf and Pacific
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2018, 06:33 AM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 13 2018, 11:15 PM) *
Worth mentioning that the subtropical moisture tap opening up is very rich and is drawing off anomalously warm SSTs across both the Gulf and Pacific

The QPF maps are very robust from Lower OH Valley and northeast of there.

How long before the "atmospheric river" talk comes back onto the scene?

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LUCC
post Feb 14 2018, 07:24 AM
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Oz CMC not much different than GFS, just colder....


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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PlanetMaster
post Feb 14 2018, 11:49 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 14 2018, 07:24 AM) *
Oz CMC not much different than GFS, just colder....

Huh? That has to be the wrong map for this thread, cant fathom 60 degrees and snow on Thursday/Friday.


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Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2018, 04:45 PM
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this is still an interesting event - and just may have a late game surprise for some remote region along the Apps.

We're kind of glossing over it, but shouldn't we be thinking about how the storm before affects the one that follows - at least to some degree?
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 14 2018, 04:54 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 14 2018, 04:45 PM) *
this is still an interesting event - and just may have a late game surprise for some remote region along the Apps.

We're kind of glossing over it, but shouldn't we be thinking about how the storm before affects the one that follows - at least to some degree?

Yup, I have used the 18z 3km NAM total QPF to draw a theoretical baroclinic zone associated with soil moisture gradients laid down by this (15-17th) storm. This potentially implies where the rain/snow line associated with the weekend storm may set up, but I'd guess that it doesn't handle cold air damming processes very well.
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--------------------
All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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konka
post Feb 14 2018, 05:02 PM
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Wrong thread.

This post has been edited by konka: Feb 14 2018, 05:05 PM
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LUCC
post Feb 14 2018, 05:35 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 14 2018, 11:49 AM) *
Huh? That has to be the wrong map for this thread, cant fathom 60 degrees and snow on Thursday/Friday.

Yup, wrong image for this thread.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Solstice
post Feb 14 2018, 05:43 PM
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Due to the relatively low impacts of this system I think this will be repurposed as an observations thread, once precipitation starts.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2018, 05:57 PM
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QUOTE
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Model guidance continues to support the potential for heavy
rainfall Thursday night into Friday over southwest PA. GEFS
PWAT values reach +3-4SD above normal and mean QPF m-climate
percentiles are nearly maxed out at 6, 12 and 24 hour intervals
.
The anomalous moisture/heavy rain combined with wet antecedent
conditions, enhanced runoff (due to cold ground surface) and
above normal streamflows will all contribute to localized and
river flooding potential. Issued flood watch for Somerset County
in collaboration with PBZ.

The mild weather will be erased (briefly) as a cold front sends
temperatures falling on Friday. There will likely be a
transition zone from rain to snow across the northwest 1/2 of
the area with a slushy accumulation possible over the higher
terrain as the colder air catches up with the back edge of the
frontal precip.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...&glossary=1
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