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> Feb. 9-12 Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-3 Days Out] FORECAST
cary67
post Feb 6 2018, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(TonyT @ Feb 6 2018, 03:14 PM) *
I would have to disagree with you on this one as all of the models are showing some big amounts so they should not be discounted.

Would love to be wrong.
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ncinthenext3
post Feb 6 2018, 04:46 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Feb 6 2018, 04:40 PM) *
Would love to be wrong.


....but this season this far out, it's been the models that have been all wrong.....at least every time there's been something large on the maps. They've been right for every small event, but every time a large one has shown up, it has not verified.


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TonyT
post Feb 6 2018, 04:49 PM
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QUOTE(ncinthenext3 @ Feb 6 2018, 03:46 PM) *
....but this season this far out, it's been the models that have been all wrong.....at least every time there's been something large on the maps. They've been right for every small event, but every time a large one has shown up, it has not verified.

We are only a couple days out now so things are looking pretty good.
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cary67
post Feb 6 2018, 05:02 PM
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QUOTE(TonyT @ Feb 6 2018, 03:49 PM) *
We are only a couple days out now so things are looking pretty good.

Those models were posted at 126 and 108 hrs out.
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weather_boy2010
post Feb 6 2018, 05:09 PM
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QUOTE(cary67 @ Feb 6 2018, 02:13 PM) *
So pretty yet so far. Divide those numbers by 3 according to QPF dessication law and another 2-4" on the table.Note this law doesnt apply to the EC where oceanic influence nullifies its effect.


laugh.gif

My interest is actually peaking with this one given the consistency. We are getting into the range where it can be taken more seriously. I do think it shifts a bit more, the question is direction and by just how much.
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cary67
post Feb 6 2018, 05:21 PM
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QUOTE(weather_boy2010 @ Feb 6 2018, 04:09 PM) *
laugh.gif

My interest is actually peaking with this one given the consistency. We are getting into the range where it can be taken more seriously. I do think it shifts a bit more, the question is direction and by just how much.

My guess that band will shift some also. If this seasons trends hold then I would venture it sags south a bit along with weakening but will see.
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CentralIllinois
post Feb 6 2018, 05:32 PM
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QUOTE(TonyT @ Feb 6 2018, 03:14 PM) *
I would have to disagree with you on this one as all of the models are showing some big amounts so they should not be discounted.

We just went through this with the last band 10-14" from MO to OH showing up on most models only for it to be dwindled down to 3-7 at the most with the majority of the area only picking up 1-3.

QUOTE(TonyT @ Feb 6 2018, 03:49 PM) *
We are only a couple days out now so things are looking pretty good.

Anything over 72 hrs out is sketchy at best this year with the models


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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 6 2018, 06:47 PM
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.
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easton229
post Feb 6 2018, 07:08 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Feb 6 2018, 06:47 PM) *
.


A lot of really nice ones for SEMI in there
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Juniorrr
post Feb 6 2018, 11:03 PM
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What a joke modeling has become: trends last 4 runs


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Feb 6 2018, 11:03 PM
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Solution Man
post Feb 6 2018, 11:03 PM
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Nice fantasy hit for K.C. region this weekend. I know that will change
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NWOhioChaser
post Feb 6 2018, 11:32 PM
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It's like we're back in the 70s with antiquated technology with the models these days.. I'll take my dusting and run with it..
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TheBlizzardOf197...
post Feb 7 2018, 03:34 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Feb 6 2018, 11:03 PM) *
What a joke modeling has become: trends last 4 runs


I agree 100%.
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jpfalcon09
post Feb 7 2018, 07:08 AM
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IWX has put up Winter Storm Watches for their northern most counties with this system. Going for 5-9". Here is DTX's take.

This post has been edited by jpfalcon09: Feb 7 2018, 07:09 AM
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NWOhioChaser
post Feb 7 2018, 08:16 AM
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QUOTE(jpfalcon09 @ Feb 7 2018, 07:08 AM) *
IWX has put up Winter Storm Watches for their northern most counties with this system. Going for 5-9". Here is DTX's take.

Yeah, okay. I'll believe it when I see it.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 7 2018, 08:26 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Feb 6 2018, 11:03 PM) *
What a joke modeling has become: trends last 4 runs

It's a joke because they still make substantial changes at 4-5 days lead time?

QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Feb 6 2018, 11:32 PM) *
It's like we're back in the 70s with antiquated technology with the models these days.. I'll take my dusting and run with it..

This is a wild exaggeration. The first couple NWP models (well into the 90s) completely missed storms ... Even as they were occurring.

Even with the recent down tick in medium range accuracy, the near term has still been quite accurate.

Patience is a virtue completely lost in the modern era rolleyes.gif


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cary67
post Feb 7 2018, 08:47 AM
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LOT hoisted WSW's also. Seems a bit early. Would have waited till this evening and more model runs.

This post has been edited by cary67: Feb 7 2018, 08:48 AM
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Three7s
post Feb 7 2018, 08:51 AM
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I'm sure the models will trend towards flurries for KC as this thing gets closer.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 7 2018, 09:04 AM
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this is another 2 progged storm about a day apart. Most are talking about the initial wave/overrunning event, I think it remains to be seen if the southern wave even has enough pop to produce appreciable wintry weather

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Feb 7 2018, 09:04 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 7 2018, 09:18 AM
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first storm
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