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> Feb 7-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
NorEaster07
post Feb 6 2018, 06:43 PM
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Since it will be early morning when precip comes into the region I figure get this going now. Looks like precip soon entering NC and Virginias.

Link to forecasting thread.


.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp northern stream shortwave digs over the Great Lakes
and phases with a southern stream shortwave. This turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and forming a surface low
that moves up the Southern Appalachians and towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces
and draws above average moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.


2:30-6:30pm loop with upper heights.




Alerts Map


Attached Image



Snowfall Total Forecast Map


Attached Image



Surface Map


Attached Image
[



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stretchct
post Feb 6 2018, 07:07 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 6 2018, 06:43 PM) *
Since it will be early morning when precip comes into the region I figure get this going now. Looks like precip soon entering NC and Virginias.

Link to forecasting thread.
.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp northern stream shortwave digs over the Great Lakes
and phases with a southern stream shortwave. This turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and forming a surface low
that moves up the Southern Appalachians and towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces
and draws above average moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.



Surface Map


Attached Image
[


Would've thought the low would slide off under those highs along the frontal boundary. Instead it attacks it.


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Feb 6 2018, 07:14 PM
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Currently 26 degrees. NAM has me at a low of 25.5. This is without the wind shift to the north yet, as observed on my station and the spc meso.
Attached Image


4 hrs later the northerlies, though light, are forecast. I would think this would advect more cold air. So despite my DP being 22 now, I figure bottoming out at 20? Clear sky.
Attached Image


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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stretchct
post Feb 6 2018, 07:18 PM
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Just because this happened today.Attached Image


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Undertakerson
post Feb 6 2018, 07:22 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 6 2018, 06:43 PM) *
Since it will be early morning when precip comes into the region I figure get this going now. Looks like precip soon entering NC and Virginias.

Link to forecasting thread.
.SYNOPSIS...
A sharp northern stream shortwave digs over the Great Lakes
and phases with a southern stream shortwave. This turns the
upper flow more from the southwest and forming a surface low
that moves up the Southern Appalachians and towards the Canadian Maritime Provinces
and draws above average moisture north from the Gulf of Mexico.
2:30-6:30pm loop with upper heights.


Alerts Map


Attached Image

Snowfall Total Forecast Map


Attached Image

Surface Map


Attached Image
[


mad.gif
Never too early for the Rooster Shift. LOL

But IAG w/me (not sure about admins but whatever), we were getting here soon enough, anyway
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stretchct
post Feb 6 2018, 07:29 PM
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A more extensive Upton AFD

CODE
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A broad upper trough over the country will send a fast moving
area of high pressure to the north tonight and then offshore by
daybreak. At the same time, developing low pressure over the
Lower Mississippi Valley races northeast as the two streams of
the polar jet attempt to phase over the northeast quarter of
the nation on Wednesday.

Clear skies and a light northerly flow will allow for good
cooling tonight with near seasonable lows. Clouds will work in
toward daybreak which will be ideal for some low level cold air
damming to develop as a NE flow develops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models are in good overall agreement in taking a fast moving
low from the Ohio Valley northeast across the area through
Wednesday evening. A moderate precipitation event will impact
the area with enough cold air damming in place at the onset for
all snow to develop during the late morning commute. The low
will track near or just north of the coastal areas which will
allow for temperatures to warm up enough for a change to plain
rain by late morning. From NYC and points north and west the
transition will be more gradual from SE to NW through the day.
Vertically though it will warm up quickly as a deep-layered SW
flow and strong low-level jet, approaching 70-80kt, moves
across the area by late afternoon/early evening. There is some
concern that some high winds could impact eastern Long Island
and southeast Connecticut in the evening as the area briefly
gets into the warm sector.

The most challenging part of the forecast is how quickly the
precipitation changes to rain. Vertical temperature profiles
point to much of the area being warm enough for all rain by
early afternoon. The low-level temperatures profiles though tell
a different story as high res model date supports below
freezing temperatures lingering into late afternoon. This will
depend on the magnitude of the cold air damming.

As for totals, looking for an inch or less of snowfall along
the immediate coast, and 4 to 6 inches across northern portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley amd NE NJ. Inland areas will also
see up to a tenth or two of ice. Thus, the watch has been
upgraded to a warning across these areas for the combined
affects of snow and ice. Elsewhere, a winter weather advisory
has been issued for all but Long Island and southeast
Connecticut east of Fairfield Connecticut. These locations may
see an inch or two of snowfall and several hundredths of an inch
of ice. Connecticut coastal locations, especially souther New
Haven county, which can get good cold air drainage down the
Connecticut River Valley on north winds may need to be upgraded
to an advisory. This will have to be watched closely with later
guidance.

Precipitation ends by midnight with temperatures not dropping
below until after the precipitation ends.


--------------------



First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Blizz
post Feb 6 2018, 07:30 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 6 2018, 07:18 PM) *
Just because this happened today.Attached Image


Tsunami on east coast? laugh.gif


--------------------
WINTERS
MBY Avg. Snow: 44" per year
17-18 Winter Storm Warnings: 3
17-18 Winter Weather Advisories: 10


Previous Winter Totals (2011-2018)
21.1", 40.0", 65.0", 52.2", 22.0", 48.4, 55.3""
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RobB
post Feb 6 2018, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(Blizz @ Feb 6 2018, 07:30 PM) *
Tsunami on east coast? laugh.gif


Actually, there are scenarios which would cause such an event. Rare as it would be, obviously...
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Removed_Member_Hobie_*
post Feb 6 2018, 07:33 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 6 2018, 07:18 PM) *
Just because this happened today.Attached Image


Yeah - what's up with that, huh?!

Relevant to the current thread: thinking there will be a host of cancellations in the morning, once the superintendents are sure it's going to go as forecast. No point in sending everyone to school just to send them home as it's dumping snow.
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Solstice
post Feb 6 2018, 08:16 PM
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QUOTE(Hobie @ Feb 6 2018, 07:33 PM) *
Yeah - what's up with that, huh?!

Relevant to the current thread: thinking there will be a host of cancellations in the morning, once the superintendents are sure it's going to go as forecast. No point in sending everyone to school just to send them home as it's dumping snow.


Could run an early dismissal. Get out before the freezing rain hits.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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jdrenken
post Feb 6 2018, 08:23 PM
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Wow...seems to be alot of alerts in Connecticut and New Jersey for being all rain. /sarcasm


--------------------
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JDClapper
post Feb 6 2018, 08:28 PM
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Some EPS ensemble mean snow depth .. the 4" bump has been prominent for days. Nice to see this first "big" test back here, look like it's going to pass .. most of the year has been plagued with tiny bumps or gradual slopes... not this one.

Williamsport
Attached Image


Scranton
Attached Image


Harrisburg
Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Solstice
post Feb 6 2018, 08:33 PM
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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 6 2018, 08:28 PM) *
Some EPS ensemble mean snow depth .. the 4" bump has been prominent for days. Nice to see this first "big" test back here, look like it's going to pass .. most of the year has been plagued with tiny bumps or gradual slopes... not this one.


Cause you're all about that bump
'bout that bump
No ZR.

Yeah, I'll show myself the door. laugh.gif.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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JDClapper
post Feb 6 2018, 08:35 PM
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Almost final bid time for SREFs (3z would be final, final) .. some snow means for a few locales.

Williamsport
Attached Image


Scranton
Attached Image


Harrisburg
Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Removed_Member_Hobie_*
post Feb 6 2018, 08:41 PM
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QUOTE(Solstice @ Feb 6 2018, 08:16 PM) *
Could run an early dismissal. Get out before the freezing rain hits.


By the time they get around to the last schools, roads will be slick. In the olden days, when i was a kid, they'd just throw chains on the bus tires and roll. Chains are now illegal, and it's best to err on the side of caution. The NW corner of the state is already cancelling big time;just a matter of time for we who are just south of that. You, on the other hand, will probably have to go to school! laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
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JDClapper
post Feb 6 2018, 08:43 PM
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QUOTE(Hobie @ Feb 6 2018, 08:41 PM) *
By the time they get around to the last schools, roads will be slick. In the olden days, when i was a kid, they'd just throw chains on the bus tires and roll. Chains are now illegal, and it's best to err on the side of caution. The NW corner of the state is already cancelling big time;just a matter of time for we who are just south of that. You, on the other hand, will probably have to go to school! laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


Our schools announced closures at 6pm. Actually kinda surprised.. but they flubbed up last Tuesday's poor timing snow event, so that makes Mon/Tue 2 hour delays and tomorrow closure.. wouldn't doubt 2hr delay Thu.. maybe they'll get a full day in Friday lol


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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Solstice
post Feb 6 2018, 08:46 PM
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QUOTE(Hobie @ Feb 6 2018, 08:41 PM) *
You, on the other hand, will probably have to go to school! laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


I am leaning against a full day due to the threat of freezing rain. It'll be hitting the hardest right when school usually dismisses, hence why I think an early dismissal or even a snow day will happen.


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3".
March 2018 - 26.3" of Snowfall*. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9".
April 2018 - 5.7" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 5.7" (as of 04/03/2018).

Seasonal Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
68.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 15.9" (as of 04/03/2018).
180.3% of average snowfall so far.

* - 03/06/2018 - 03/08/2018 Nor'easter totals estimated at 15.9" based off measurements and local data comparison.
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Winter lover
post Feb 6 2018, 08:47 PM
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QUOTE(Hobie @ Feb 6 2018, 08:41 PM) *
By the time they get around to the last schools, roads will be slick. In the olden days, when i was a kid, they'd just throw chains on the bus tires and roll. Chains are now illegal, and it's best to err on the side of caution. The NW corner of the state is already cancelling big time;just a matter of time for we who are just south of that. You, on the other hand, will probably have to go to school! laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif


My school in NW CT has cancelled already
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risingriver
post Feb 6 2018, 08:49 PM
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So my county in Virginia is not in the winter weather advisory which stops in the county to our West. However the temperature is already down to freezing, 1 degree lower than the official forecast predicts. So we're at 32 with a dew point of 27.

Am I wrong in thinking that when precip starts that temperature will wet-bulb lower and the rain's going to freeze on contact and the forecast here may bust for the a.m. Everyone's talking how the ice will stay to our West. I'm no longer certain that's the case.

Good luck to everyone expecting snow. I've tempered my anticipation into just enough ice so that I don't have to go to work. Then it can change to rain.

This post has been edited by risingriver: Feb 6 2018, 08:50 PM
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Removed_Member_Hobie_*
post Feb 6 2018, 08:51 PM
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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Feb 6 2018, 08:47 PM) *
My school in NW CT has cancelled already


I live in Litchfield County, but teach in Fairfield County - - but just south of the county line. I would be very surprised if we're in tomorrow...and more than a little *bleep*ed if the forecast holds and we are sending kids and staff home in unsafe conditions.
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