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> Feb 7-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
tool483
post Feb 6 2018, 08:52 PM
Post #21




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Surprisingly under a WWA instead of a WSW here in western MA. Kinda have a gut feeling it'll switch to a warning by morning. . NWS thinking more sleet/ice then snow here. Won't take many hours of 1-2 inch rates to add up. Cranky is on about it sliding more east then what guidance is showing

Personally, because of work i'd rather 3 inchs of snow then inch of sleet so here's to hoping. My little car doesn't like snow much hah

too much to post
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy


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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 08:53 PM
Post #22




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 6 2018, 08:43 PM) *
Our schools announced closures at 6pm. Actually kinda surprised.. but they flubbed up last Tuesday's poor timing snow event, so that makes Mon/Tue 2 hour delays and tomorrow closure.. wouldn't doubt 2hr delay Thu.. maybe they'll get a full day in Friday lol

Good luck sir, you have to like your over all position with this one... finally. You should get clocked, and if Cranky is correct may be a ranker for ya!
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tool483
post Feb 6 2018, 08:55 PM
Post #23




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QUOTE(Winter lover @ Feb 6 2018, 08:47 PM) *
My school in NW CT has cancelled already


Enjoy it! Once you get into real job they don't close for *bleep*, depending on your field anyway. . .being darn IT tech for distributor that distributes to convenience stores which NEVER close for ANYTHING doesn't help the cause

Rant end. .

Will be day of not much work tomorrow anyway, lots of hitting F5 tho laugh.gif


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telejunkie
post Feb 6 2018, 08:56 PM
Post #24




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Schools cancelled in these parts for tomorrow. Interested to see what 0z cycle brings...continues to push the warm nose north (stronger primary) or transfer stays true


--------------------
Winter '17-'18 Winter Storms of Significance (>4")
12/9 - 5" 1/4 - 9" 2/18 - 5”
12/12 - 9” 1/17 - 7” 3/2 -7”
12/22 - 5” 2/4 - 7" 3/7-3/9 - 23"
12/25 - 10" 2/7 - 9” 3/13-3/15 - 17”

'09-'10 Snowfall: 76"
'10-'11 Snowfall: 117"
'11-'12 Snowfall: 44"
'12-'13 Snowfall: 62"
'13-'14 Snowfall: 88"
'14-'15 Snowfall: 99"
'15-'16 Snowfall: 26"
'16-'17 Snowfall: 85"
'17-'18 Snowfall: 128"

Telejunkie's, 100% unofficial yearly snowfall average - 81"
“We are what we pretend to be, so we must be careful about what we pretend to be” -Vonnegut
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 6 2018, 08:59 PM
Post #25




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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Feb 6 2018, 08:56 PM) *
Schools cancelled in these parts for tomorrow. Interested to see what 0z cycle brings...continues to push the warm nose north (stronger primary) or transfer stays true

Warm nose that comes north, means more of a closed low from the south which could mean the precip belt will be further north (heavier snow in Upstate NY and Vermont) Am I thinking correctly?
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weatherFlash
post Feb 6 2018, 09:03 PM
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0z NAM cutoff is brutal. 3 inches here.. 5 miles north 8 inches.


--------------------
Highest Snowfall totals for this winter and last

January 16-17 2017
Montour County, PA
Winter Weather Advisory
For 3-5 inches

Actual Snowfall:
6.75 inches



March 14th 2017
Montour County, PA
Winter Storm Warning
For 18-24 inches (isolated 24+)

Actual Snowfall: 22 inches
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SyracuseStorm
post Feb 6 2018, 09:05 PM
Post #27




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NAM looking....interesting dry.gif


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JDClapper
post Feb 6 2018, 09:05 PM
Post #28




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From: Loyalsock, PA (eastern suburb of Williamsport, PA, Elev 581')
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QUOTE(weatherFlash @ Feb 6 2018, 09:03 PM) *
0z NAM cutoff is brutal. 3 inches here.. 5 miles north 8 inches.


Monster ice storm for I-80 region.. like, monster.

Suspect. We don't get monster ice storms often at all.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


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RobB
post Feb 6 2018, 09:06 PM
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.
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
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weatherFlash
post Feb 6 2018, 09:07 PM
Post #30




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Feb 6 2018, 09:05 PM) *
Monster ice storm for I-80 region.. like, monster.

Suspect. We don't get monster ice storms often at all.



Cold air sitting in after this would keep that ice around..


--------------------
Highest Snowfall totals for this winter and last

January 16-17 2017
Montour County, PA
Winter Weather Advisory
For 3-5 inches

Actual Snowfall:
6.75 inches



March 14th 2017
Montour County, PA
Winter Storm Warning
For 18-24 inches (isolated 24+)

Actual Snowfall: 22 inches
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weatherFlash
post Feb 6 2018, 09:08 PM
Post #31




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Storm Inbound



--------------------
Highest Snowfall totals for this winter and last

January 16-17 2017
Montour County, PA
Winter Weather Advisory
For 3-5 inches

Actual Snowfall:
6.75 inches



March 14th 2017
Montour County, PA
Winter Storm Warning
For 18-24 inches (isolated 24+)

Actual Snowfall: 22 inches
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SyracuseStorm
post Feb 6 2018, 09:08 PM
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QUOTE(weatherFlash @ Feb 6 2018, 09:07 PM) *
Cold air sitting in after this would keep that ice around..


Yeah...that ice potential is no joke for PA..ugly


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JDClapper
post Feb 6 2018, 09:09 PM
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Really filling in now .. neat smile.gif

https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34¼"

Current Season: 22¾"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7¼"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17½"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 09:12 PM
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Does anyone know the formula for calculating the wet bulb? Duff told me it last year, but he isn't on here.
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plowxpress
post Feb 6 2018, 09:16 PM
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double 1032 HP hanging strong, man my gut is telling me some huge surprises could be in order if that main LP gets a little nudge further E and S. Reminds me of a storm we had in Dec 2013, almost the same forecast now. Was supposed to get 2"-4" turning to ice. The change-over never came and we ended up with 10". I know models do not support my gut, but man if the HP holds on just a couple hours stronger and doesn't move out as fast........there will be many more smiling faces in here tomorrow. Of coarse this is all just speculation and theories unsure.gif

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jacksonjeff
post Feb 6 2018, 09:18 PM
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25.5 degrees
Dp 21
Hard to believe it will be raining in 12 hours. Curse of the coastal plain.
Have fun my inland friends. Enjoy but be careful.

This post has been edited by jacksonjeff: Feb 6 2018, 09:19 PM
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plowxpress
post Feb 6 2018, 09:19 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 6 2018, 09:12 PM) *
Does anyone know the formula for calculating the wet bulb? Duff told me it last year, but he isn't on here.


I just type it in online and usually calculators just pop up. Enter TEMP and Humidity and it will do it for you.

click here

This post has been edited by plowxpress: Feb 6 2018, 09:20 PM
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KENNYP2339
post Feb 6 2018, 09:20 PM
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QUOTE(plowxpress @ Feb 6 2018, 09:16 PM) *
double 1032 HP hanging strong, man my gut is telling me some huge surprises could be in order if that main LP gets a little nudge further E and S. Reminds me of a storm we had in Dec 2013, almost the same forecast now. Was supposed to get 2"-4" turning to ice. The change-over never came and we ended up with 10". I know models do not support my gut, but man if the HP holds on just a couple hours stronger and doesn't move out as fast........there will be many more smiling faces in here tomorrow. Of coarse this is all just speculation and theories unsure.gif

Great observation, I also wonder if the HP in Alberta is going to slide along in contribute to the cad if those 1032 get knocked away
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snowdoug
post Feb 6 2018, 09:21 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 6 2018, 10:06 PM) *
.


Sooooo. Question for the knowledgeable ones. With that HP positioned where it is, why do we get WAA crashing in and overrunning and not suppression? Thanks for info everybody and enjoy the wintry weather. I am hoping for snow but realize once again that it appears unlikely. Will welcome enough rain to once again wash out all of the tons of salt spread everywhere from the last mini event this past sunday.

This post has been edited by snowdoug: Feb 6 2018, 09:33 PM
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weatherFlash
post Feb 6 2018, 09:23 PM
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HRRR continues to increase the warm tongue further north per run..

01z:



00z at same time:



This post has been edited by weatherFlash: Feb 6 2018, 09:24 PM


--------------------
Highest Snowfall totals for this winter and last

January 16-17 2017
Montour County, PA
Winter Weather Advisory
For 3-5 inches

Actual Snowfall:
6.75 inches



March 14th 2017
Montour County, PA
Winter Storm Warning
For 18-24 inches (isolated 24+)

Actual Snowfall: 22 inches
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