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> Feb 7-8, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm OBS, Last Minute Forecasts - Observations
Hail_on_Me
post Feb 6 2018, 09:26 PM
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QUOTE(jacksonjeff @ Feb 6 2018, 09:18 PM) *
25.5 degrees
Dp 21
Hard to believe it will be raining in 12 hours. Curse of the coastal plain.
Have fun my inland friends. Enjoy but be careful.


Hitting Mountain Creek tomorrow. I'm hoping the change over never happens and we get dumped on all day. Fresh wax on the board cool.gif
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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 09:28 PM
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QUOTE(plowxpress @ Feb 6 2018, 09:16 PM) *
double 1032 HP hanging strong, man my gut is telling me some huge surprises could be in order if that main LP gets a little nudge further E and S. Reminds me of a storm we had in Dec 2013, almost the same forecast now. Was supposed to get 2"-4" turning to ice. The change-over never came and we ended up with 10". I know models do not support my gut, but man if the HP holds on just a couple hours stronger and doesn't move out as fast........there will be many more smiling faces in here tomorrow. Of coarse this is all just speculation and theories unsure.gif

[attachment=347829:spc_2110_0206.PNG]

Yup, and Cranky agrees with ya. Was just talking to my outage main man for our electric company. He brought up a great point that may save us if there is a lot of Frz rain. Lack of much wind helps prevents outages with ice, unless just too much ice.
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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE(plowxpress @ Feb 6 2018, 09:19 PM) *
I just type it in online and usually calculators just pop up. Enter TEMP and Humidity and it will do it for you.

click here

You the man PP. Thanks!
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beastieboy101
post Feb 6 2018, 09:29 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Feb 6 2018, 08:49 PM) *
So my county in Virginia is not in the winter weather advisory which stops in the county to our West. However the temperature is already down to freezing, 1 degree lower than the official forecast predicts. So we're at 32 with a dew point of 27.

Am I wrong in thinking that when precip starts that temperature will wet-bulb lower and the rain's going to freeze on contact and the forecast here may bust for the a.m. Everyone's talking how the ice will stay to our West. I'm no longer certain that's the case.

Good luck to everyone expecting snow. I've tempered my anticipation into just enough ice so that I don't have to go to work. Then it can change to rain.


I noticed that too. Temps were modeled here (KNYG) to be 34 tonight at the lowest. Already lower than that and I feel like it will continue to drop tonight. Might be a surprise for the local counties tomorrow. But these mixing storms always seem to be warmer than modeled for me near the potomac river.


--------------------
Located here : 38.56314, -77.33113 or 3833'47.3"N 7719'52.1"W
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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(snowdoug @ Feb 6 2018, 09:21 PM) *
Sooooo. Question for the knowledgeable ones. With that HP positioned where it is, why do we get WAA crashing in and overrunning and not suppression? Thanks for info everybody and enjoy the wintry weather. I am hoping for enough rain to once again wash out all of the tons of salt spread everywhere from the last mini event this past sunday.

High doesn't hold it ground. It pulls away. Big question is how long it holds.
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Storms R us
post Feb 6 2018, 09:32 PM
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QUOTE(beastieboy101 @ Feb 6 2018, 09:29 PM) *
I noticed that too. Temps were modeled here (KNYG) to be 34 tonight at the lowest. Already lower than that and I feel like it will continue to drop tonight. Might be a surprise for the local counties tomorrow. But these mixing storms always seem to be warmer than modeled for me near the potomac river.


3D weather world is showing it starting as snow around BWI around 0500 till approximately 080 before rain moves in

On my way home this evening the roads were treated BWI to the Bay Bridge, and when I got to DE I was very surprised on treatment on the road in the Camden DE area. Over here its all rain according to my weather forecast.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Feb 6 2018, 09:35 PM
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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 09:36 PM
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Clear skies causing serious rad cooling. Gonna have a LONG uphill climb to freezing. One thing I learned from this great thread years ago, is it doesn't effect the track, it doesn't prevent the WAA intrusion. However, it does tend to lock in the CAD, especially in valleys, and makes the cold harder to erode. Also, helps in marginal situations at the onset. And yes, with the onset of precip, the temps will drop towards the wet bulbs.
See what I learned me at the 'brary tongue.gif
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JDClapper
post Feb 6 2018, 09:43 PM
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Whippin up 1 last one for the storm.. NAM a bit NW of WPC's track .. but within the "cone of uncertainty"

Attached Image

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 20"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


** "MoM" Certified **

Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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risingriver
post Feb 6 2018, 09:45 PM
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QUOTE(beastieboy101 @ Feb 6 2018, 09:29 PM) *
I noticed that too. Temps were modeled here (KNYG) to be 34 tonight at the lowest. Already lower than that and I feel like it will continue to drop tonight. Might be a surprise for the local counties tomorrow. But these mixing storms always seem to be warmer than modeled for me near the potomac river.



You do have that microclimate to deal with because of that large body of warm water out back.

Fredericksburg temperature is down two more degrees. We are now three degrees below the predicted low and it's not even 10 yet. Plenty of time for more radiational cooling before the warm air aloft starts producing clouds.

The lower we go the longer it takes to get above freezing. At this point that's all that matters in the morning.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 6 2018, 09:44 PM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 6 2018, 09:32 PM) *
3D weather world is showing it starting as snow around BWI around 0500 till approximately 080 before rain moves in

On my way home this evening the roads were treated BWI to the Bay Bridge, and when I got to DE I was very surprised on treatment on the road in the Camden DE area. Over here its all rain according to my weather forecast.

At which point it will NOT be plain rain storms, this is when the Frz-Rn will kick in. Regardless if temps are in the mid 30's it's the GROUND that's at or even below freezing.
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risingriver
post Feb 6 2018, 09:47 PM
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Sterling afd discussion is very disappointing. It's word for word the same discussion that was issued at 2:30 this afternoon only now it's got a 9:05 time stamp on it. Not one single revision or any change. Guess they're just either locked-in on their forecast or mailing it in tonight.
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risingriver
post Feb 6 2018, 09:48 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 6 2018, 09:44 PM) *
At which point it will NOT be plain rain storms, this is when the Frz-Rn will kick in. Regardless if temps are in the mid 30's it's the GROUND that's at or even below freezing.


perhaps for a very short time this go round, but not like that freezing rain issue we had back in January after that long spell of super arctic cold air.
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TC1
post Feb 6 2018, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Feb 6 2018, 09:47 PM) *
Sterling afd discussion is very disappointing. It's word for word the same discussion that was issued at 2:30 this afternoon only now it's got a 9:05 time stamp on it. Not one single revision or any change. Guess they're just either locked-in on their forecast or mailing it in tonight.


Mt. Holly does that, too. It's annoying. In fact, I think they did it (or nearly did it) earlier today. New time stamp, same text.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 6 2018, 09:56 PM
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QUOTE(risingriver @ Feb 6 2018, 09:48 PM) *
perhaps for a very short time this go round, but not like that freezing rain issue we had back in January after that long spell of super arctic cold air.

Oh not at all like that event, never claimed it would be as such.

However if you vist the Maryland SHA website and surf thru until you locate road way temperatures u will see that MANY roadway sensors are currently at or even below freezing (especially secondary roads)
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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 10:02 PM
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QUOTE(TC1 @ Feb 6 2018, 09:55 PM) *
Mt. Holly does that, too. It's annoying. In fact, I think they did it (or nearly did it) earlier today. New time stamp, same text.

Yep, another one of their many sins. In addition to just pukin out model analysis, they are time stamping earlier info. Noticed that earlier today, when they needed to step up with one of the write ups. It has to be budget cuts, old timers retiring, etc, but just tragic. Seems as if there are only 1 or 2 of their originals there anymore that offer real info, and they can't possibly cover every shift. That is IMHO, of course , but if it is true, I wish they would pull an old time TWC move, and bring Kocin in for the real events.....
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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 10:06 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 6 2018, 09:56 PM) *
Oh not at all like that event, never claimed it would be as such.

However if you vist the Maryland SHA website and surf thru until you locate road way temperatures u will see that MANY roadway sensors are currently at or even below freezing (especially secondary roads)

Fire, it will cause trouble for a bit, but we have had this discussion in here before. It hasn't been all that cold, and that only holds for a brief time anyway, especially if it gets to 35 or so. Add salt to the roads, and the bigger issue is how long before it gets above freezing.
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rtcemc
post Feb 6 2018, 10:09 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 6 2018, 10:06 PM) *
Fire, it will cause trouble for a bit, but we have had this discussion in here before. It hasn't been all that cold, and that only holds for a brief time anyway, especially if it gets to 35 or so. Add salt to the roads, and the bigger issue is how long before it gets above freezing.

As an edit to this, below the surface (such ,as the ground) that cold can hold on forever. Always amazed at despite how warm it gets, and how much rain we get, the warm can't puncture too deep into the ground, and it remains frozen a few inches down. Experience this every winter as I try to remove the stakes in the ground that were supporting the Christmas ornaments.
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7.3powerstrokedi...
post Feb 6 2018, 10:09 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 6 2018, 10:06 PM) *
Fire, it will cause trouble for a bit, but we have had this discussion in here before. It hasn't been all that cold, and that only holds for a brief time anyway, especially if it gets to 35 or so. Add salt to the roads, and the bigger issue is how long before it gets above freezing.



Yup road temps come up quick in marginal situations especially with salt


--------------------
Palmerton, Pa Carbon County
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Solstice
post Feb 6 2018, 10:10 PM
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Regarding temperatures, how good is the HRDPS? Can anyone confirm/reject the temperatures on the map?

Attached Image


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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Solstice
post Feb 6 2018, 10:11 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 6 2018, 10:09 PM) *
this every winter


Huh? blink.gif I thought winter was over... wink.gif


--------------------
Monthly Snowfall Totals for 2017-2018 North American Winter:
December 2017 - 12.6" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 6.5".
January 2018 - 14.8" of Snowfall. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0".
February 2018 - 9.1" of Snowfall. 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 7.3". (As of 02/18).
Seasonal Total - 36.5" of Snowfall, 0.15" of Ice. Maximum Snowdepth of 13.0". 96.1% of average snowfall so far.

Latest Snowpack Observation:
02/18 Morning - The aftermath of the overnight snowstorm has blanketed the region with 7.3" of wet snowfall. Quickly melting as temperatures are approaching the 40 degree Fahrenheit mark.
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