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> February 15th-17th Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
osubucks30
post Feb 7 2018, 07:00 PM
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I will try my luck with a possible snowstorm. Hopefully I'm good luck! Here is from 18z GFS runs. Was on 0z and 6z GFS as well but those were an all rain event.

This post has been edited by osubucks30: Feb 11 2018, 02:04 PM
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mulaman984
post Feb 7 2018, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Feb 7 2018, 07:00 PM) *
I will try my luck with a possible snowstorm. Hopefully I'm good luck! Here is from 18z GFS runs. Was on 6z GFS as well but the 6z was an all rain event.


Lol - not another thin band of snow up 71 - Cincy always loses on that this year.
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osubucks30
post Feb 7 2018, 07:04 PM
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QUOTE(mulaman984 @ Feb 7 2018, 07:02 PM) *
Lol - not another thin band of snow up 71 - Cincy always loses on that this year.

Probably should of waited for a few more runs to post but something to watch...
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Snow____
post Feb 8 2018, 02:40 AM
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Why not?


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ingyball
post Feb 8 2018, 12:32 PM
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Whew, that 12z GFS is a scary run lol.
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JymGanahlRocks
post Feb 8 2018, 12:41 PM
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QUOTE(ingyball @ Feb 8 2018, 12:32 PM) *
Whew, that 12z GFS is a scary run lol.


Catastrophic, prolonged ZR event for a large area.
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beaver56
post Feb 8 2018, 12:43 PM
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QUOTE(ingyball @ Feb 8 2018, 12:32 PM) *
Whew, that 12z GFS is a scary run lol.


Nothing like ice! Wow, that would be a skating rink.


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2013-2014 Winter Snowfall Total (as of 3/25): 61.1" (Snowiest ever for my area!!!)
2013-2014 Winter Ice Total: .30"

Last Snow Event: 1" (3/25)
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Snow____
post Feb 8 2018, 12:56 PM
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Just did ZR. I need some snow now.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 8 2018, 12:57 PM
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From today's 12z GFS ... FWIW
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 8 2018, 12:58 PM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Feb 8 2018, 12:41 PM) *
Catastrophic, prolonged ZR event for a large area.

No kidding ...
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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RobB
post Feb 8 2018, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 8 2018, 12:58 PM) *
No kidding ...



I do not see the issue smile.gif
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doc294
post Feb 8 2018, 06:17 PM
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Oh man. Hey STL, Ill be in Canaan Valley in this time frame. Either stuck in ice or rain and yuck. This is problematic.
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 8 2018, 08:05 PM
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I first mentioned the possibility of a system in this time frame almost 5 days ago. Sorry to say, but I anticipate this to bring quite the warmup ahead of it. Also may be some severe weather depending on moisture content in the warm sector.

QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 4 2018, 12:54 AM) *
Major system in east Asia around the 8th. Large trough dips down from Siberia into Mongolia then pushes east and deepens. This would correlate roughly to February 15. We're starting to get closer to the warm season, so there may be some severe weather ahead of the system. What I expect to happen is a trough will dip down from Canada into the western US, modestly pump up heights in the east, then push east.




QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Feb 7 2018, 11:56 PM) *
Regarding the storm on the 15th... GFS has trended toward higher heights over Korea/Japan. Over in the US, it has a strong southern ridge but has the western ridge persisting, so the system comes in within northwest flow. I'm expecting this system to dip down into the west US before coming east.




TR foretold the pattern to start February when the long-range models were showing a torch, so I'm fairly confident in this. The pieces are there.



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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ohiobuckeye45
post Feb 8 2018, 08:44 PM
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cold suppression on the 18z
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 8 2018, 11:27 PM
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GFS has us in the warm sector with upper 50/lower 60 dew points. 999mb low here. Still got some nice WAA though.






This post has been edited by ClicheVortex2014: Feb 8 2018, 11:30 PM


--------------------
Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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Southern Missour...
post Feb 9 2018, 11:49 AM
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12z GFS is a little slower (Feb 16-18). Stronger and northwest would please about all of us. Good moisture for parts of this as it lays down frozen from Texas to Oklahoma to Arkansas and generally just north of due east from there:

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StormChazer
post Feb 9 2018, 12:29 PM
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Coming from someone who hasn't seen any significant snow in Oklahoma for a few years now, I would take this in a heartbeat. Give me 3-4 inches and I will be content until next winter. This does have a different setup than the last 10 storms this winter that leave Northeast Oklahoma high and dry. So here's to hoping this is the one that breaks this slump.
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MIDMIWeather
post Feb 9 2018, 03:00 PM
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So bummed out this year. Figured with the pattern we were expecting to see, this would be an active year, but every system has missed north or south of me. Feeling really bad for the Oklahoma/Kansas/Missouri/Illinois peeps.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 9 2018, 03:10 PM
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QUOTE(doc294 @ Feb 8 2018, 06:17 PM) *
Oh man. Hey STL, Ill be in Canaan Valley in this time frame. Either stuck in ice or rain and yuck. This is problematic.

Long ways to go with this one, who knows how problematic it may or may not be.

I think it goes without saying that we all prefer snowier solutions, but we can't all get snow with the same storm.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 9 2018, 03:18 PM
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My favorite long range graphic is the GEFS mean total QPF. Three things worth mentioning based on this graphic.

1) plenty of storminess/QPF to go around

2) Despite plenty of warm/moist air in the forecast there hasn't been a lack of cold air this winter so I'd expect each system to have at least some wintry potential

3) the NW gradient is always the place to watch for wintry potential

This post has been edited by StL weatherjunkie: Feb 9 2018, 03:18 PM
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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