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> February 15th-17th Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Southern Missour...
post Feb 11 2018, 12:54 PM
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12z gefs looking more interesting, too. A few nice members here below. E9 or E12 please:

This post has been edited by Southern Missouri Snow Fan: Feb 11 2018, 12:56 PM
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weloveourhailey
post Feb 11 2018, 01:49 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Feb 11 2018, 01:54 PM) *
12z gefs looking more interesting, too. A few nice members here below. E9 or E12 please:


This will be great for us in sw Missouri! Iím happy we are in the bullseye!
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Southern Missour...
post Feb 11 2018, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(weloveourhailey @ Feb 11 2018, 02:49 PM) *
This will be great for us in sw Missouri! I’m happy we are in the bullseye!


Wayyyy too early to determine who will end up in bullseye, not to mention precip type(s), total precip etc.

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Snow____
post Feb 11 2018, 07:02 PM
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Thanks for staying on top of this South Mizzou!


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Southern Missour...
post Feb 11 2018, 08:54 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Feb 11 2018, 08:02 PM) *
Thanks for staying on top of this South Mizzou!


Hey, appreciate that, Snow! Thank you sincerely. Hopefully this will trend well for both of us. Needs to be a bit less progressive than it is showing right now if we zre to have potential for a more robust system.
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weloveourhailey
post Feb 11 2018, 09:22 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Feb 11 2018, 08:02 PM) *
Thanks for staying on top of this South Mizzou!



Has this been sampled yet?
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Southern Missour...
post Feb 11 2018, 09:32 PM
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QUOTE(weloveourhailey @ Feb 11 2018, 10:22 PM) *
Has this been sampled yet?


No. At least a couple days from that.
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Snow____
post Feb 11 2018, 10:23 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Feb 11 2018, 08:54 PM) *
Hey, appreciate that, Snow! Thank you sincerely. Hopefully this will trend well for both of us. Needs to be a bit less progressive than it is showing right now if we zre to have potential for a more robust system.

Yeah. Since I didnít get any snow with the last system, Iíll take a nice covering. Just want to see some snow.


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Southern Missour...
post Feb 11 2018, 11:23 PM
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0z ICON really slowed the system down and dumped lots of moisture. Some decent frozen in places. Just need more cold and south for me.

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Southern Missour...
post Feb 11 2018, 11:28 PM
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0z cmc somewhat similar to icon. Too bad it didnt evee want to eject ene. Gfs was a progressive whiff.
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bunnyohare1
post Feb 12 2018, 12:31 AM
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I live in Mishawaka, Indiana next to South Bend. Having a pretty good winter here. So far 32 inches above our normal yearly snowfall average. Please don't hate me. wink.gif
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Snow____
post Feb 12 2018, 12:35 AM
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QUOTE(bunnyohare1 @ Feb 12 2018, 12:31 AM) *
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I live in Mishawaka, Indiana next to South Bend. Having a pretty good winter here. So far 32 inches above our normal yearly snowfall average. Please don't hate me. wink.gif

If you came here to make us jealous mission accomplished lol. I have 10 inches on the season and I’m sure that’s more than my Mizzou friend. About on par with last year but still c rap.

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Three7s
post Feb 12 2018, 10:23 AM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Feb 11 2018, 11:35 PM) *
If you came here to make us jealous mission accomplished lol. I have 10 inches on the season and Iím sure thatís more than my Mizzou friend. About on par with last year but still c rap.

I've recorded about 7 inches in my location, and the local reporting station has only recorded 5.4. 4th year in a row with very poor snow totals. Even areas up north are way below average. Seems like the only spot you can go to get snow for sure is the northeast.
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StormChazer
post Feb 12 2018, 11:24 AM
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The 6Z on Sunday and today's 12Z are nearly indistinguishable from each other. Sunday's 6Z preceded the large ice storm run and ever since the GFS jumped away from that, it's slowly been trending back towards it. I am very interested to see if today's 18Z run on the GFS looks anything like Sunday's 12Z(the ice storm).

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Southern Missour...
post Feb 12 2018, 12:46 PM
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12z cmc slowed things down and came fairly close to a big storm, esp in eastern KS, across mid MO and across part od southern IL:


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Southern Missour...
post Feb 12 2018, 12:47 PM
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QUOTE(Snow____ @ Feb 12 2018, 01:35 AM) *
If you came here to make us jealous mission accomplished lol. I have 10 inches on the season and Iím sure thatís more than my Mizzou friend. About on par with last year but still c rap.


Yes, MUCH more than me. Plenty pf2cold yet only 3.5 inches of snowfall and about 5 tiny little ice storms. 3 winters in a row with virtually no snow.
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StormChazer
post Feb 12 2018, 01:14 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Feb 12 2018, 11:46 AM) *
12z cmc slowed things down and came fairly close to a big storm, esp in eastern KS, across mid MO and across part od southern IL:


Certainly. It definitely provides the moisture for a large storm, if cold air were to move in quicker, there would be quite the storm across the lower Midwest.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 12 2018, 04:54 PM
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Another very positively tilted trough that's struggling to draw precip into the cold air. When that's combined with the magnitude of warmth ahead of this system, it's hard to get excited about significant wintry precip occurring in this time frame.

There is a respectable arctic air mass filling in behind this system, but it seems like another case of the cold air arriving as precipitation is ending.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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Southern Missour...
post Feb 12 2018, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 12 2018, 05:54 PM) *
Another very positively tilted trough that's struggling to draw precip into the cold air. When that's combined with the magnitude of warmth ahead of this system, it's hard to get excited about significant wintry precip occurring in this time frame.

There is a respectable arctic air mass filling in behind this system, but it seems like another case of the cold air arriving as precipitation is ending.


Yes it is not looking very promising. Why cant we get any negative tilted storms this winter outside the NE?
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 12 2018, 06:38 PM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Feb 12 2018, 05:12 PM) *
Yes it is not looking very promising. Why cant we get any negative tilted storms this winter outside the NE?

The simple answer is too much west coast ridging. Can't get a negative tilt system in NW flow aloft.
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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