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> February 15th-17th Plains/MW/GL/OV Winter Storm, Possibility, Possibility: Medium Range [4-8 Days Out] FORECAST
Southern Missour...
post Feb 13 2018, 12:46 AM
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0z cmc was CLOSE AGAIN to a big winter storm. Just a little too warm but there is potential it seems. Below is frozen as well as total precip.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 13 2018, 07:51 AM
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06z Nam is trying to get something going in it's long range
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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

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Kazairl
post Feb 13 2018, 12:56 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 13 2018, 06:51 AM) *
06z Nam is trying to get something going in it's long range

Still sort of there in 12Z NAM and in 12Z GFS. Temperatures are marginal, though. The algorithm is putting out some snow as precip type, but surface temperatures are 33-34 F. That's why maps are showing blobs of rain and blobs of snow all mixed together. 850mb temps are below freezing at 18z all the way to KY-TN border, with 925mb temps even colder. It's a question of how much of that cold air gets dragged down to the surface with the precip.


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RobB
post Feb 13 2018, 02:30 PM
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The period after this shows a bit more potential for some smaller snows in the OV increasing as one heads to the northeast part of the country.
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Juniorrr
post Feb 13 2018, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 13 2018, 02:30 PM) *
The period after this shows a bit more potential for some smaller snows in the OV increasing as one heads to the northeast part of the country.

Yea that looks promising, although it just popped up in the last day and today.
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snowlover2
post Feb 13 2018, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Feb 13 2018, 02:30 PM) *
The period after this shows a bit more potential for some smaller snows in the OV increasing as one heads to the northeast part of the country.

GGEM/Euro do look interesting for Sat night/Sun but GFS not biting at least yet.


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snowlover2
post Feb 13 2018, 05:09 PM
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18z GFS made a pretty big jump north. Precip gets to the very southern tip of Ohio.


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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 13 2018, 09:39 PM
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Not the direction I expected this storm to come in from. Pesky details.


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Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
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Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
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osubucks30
post Feb 13 2018, 11:18 PM
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What is this?!?!?
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ClicheVortex2014
post Feb 13 2018, 11:21 PM
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QUOTE(osubucks30 @ Feb 13 2018, 11:18 PM) *
What is this?!?!?

A headache? Big bust potential?


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Meteorology undergrad at Ohio University (weather on campus)

Historic weather events in the Ohio Valley:
- The 1974 Super Outbreak (read more)
- The 2012 "Super" Derecho
- The Great Blizzard of 1978

2018 Weather for Cincinnati

Days >90: 18 (Last: 7/14/18) (Highest: 96)
Days <0: 5 (Last 1/6/18) (Lowest: -7)
Marginal risks: 19 (Last: 7/10/18)
Slight risks: 6 (Last: 6/26/18)
Enhanced risks: 0 (Last: 11/5/17)
Moderate risks: 2 (Last: 7/20/18)
High risks: 0 (Last: 11/17/13)
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ingyball
post Feb 13 2018, 11:21 PM
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Hmm, maybe if we don't look at the models something will happen? tongue.gif
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 13 2018, 11:24 PM
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Worth mentioning that the subtropical moisture tap opening up is very rich and is drawing off anomalously warm SSTs across both the Gulf and Pacific
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Southern Missour...
post Feb 14 2018, 12:23 AM
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0z cmc, 0z gfs and 12z euro control showed potential, esp. In Ohio:


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snowlover2
post Feb 14 2018, 05:36 AM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Feb 14 2018, 12:23 AM) *
0z cmc, 0z gfs and 12z euro control showed potential, esp. In Ohio:

The image of GGEM is from 12z. 0z was more robust especially for southern Ohio. 0z Euro was a whiff south. It can't help but to flip flop this winter rolleyes.gif . 6z GFS was not as impressive.


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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 14 2018, 08:28 AM
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QUOTE(Southern Missouri Snow Fan @ Feb 14 2018, 12:23 AM) *
0z cmc, 0z gfs and 12z euro control showed potential, esp. In Ohio:

All of these solutions result in accumulations imby. Let it snow!


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

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Playa21
post Feb 14 2018, 08:57 AM
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Seems like we've had a lot of phasing issues this winter. Looks to be too south of here so far, and our last chance at snow for quite some time as we appear to be on the warm side of the remainder of the storms (on GFS and Canadian at least).

Good luck!


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Juniorrr
post Feb 14 2018, 03:36 PM
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One things for sure, lots of QPF in the lakes/OV coming in the next week(s). Could see some light flooding.

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BrenK10
post Feb 14 2018, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Feb 14 2018, 03:36 PM) *
One things for sure, lots of QPF in the lakes/OV coming in the next week(s). Could see some light flooding.

I always enjoy heavy rain events
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 14 2018, 03:59 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Feb 14 2018, 03:36 PM) *
One things for sure, lots of QPF in the lakes/OV coming in the next week(s). Could see some light flooding.

If this verifies then the probability of spring flooding in the OHV is rather high, but I doubt it makes it into the great lakes.

Even if rainfall during the next 10 days doesn't result in flooding the soils will be saturated with spring thunderstorms are just around the corner ...
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Juniorrr
post Feb 14 2018, 05:12 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 14 2018, 03:59 PM) *
If this verifies then the probability of spring flooding in the OHV is rather high, but I doubt it makes it into the great lakes.

Even if rainfall during the next 10 days doesn't result in flooding the soils will be saturated with spring thunderstorms are just around the corner ...

Yea the soil here is quite wet from snow melt. Going to be a muddy few weeks.

May hear some rumbles tomorrow late night.

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