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> Feb 17-18, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Last minute Forecasts
phillyfan
post Feb 9 2018, 07:02 PM
Post #21




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QUOTE(beastieboy101 @ Feb 9 2018, 05:55 PM) *
[attachment=348241:20180218...34hr_out.png]

18Z GFS looks pretty good for the I-95r's from Fredericksburg VA to Mass. I would love just 1 storm this winter over 6"

Lock it in! ohmy.gif


--------------------
Winter 2017-18:

Winter Weather Advisory: 11/13, 12/9-10, 12/13-14, 12/24-25, 1/3-4, 1/8, 1/13, 1/16-17, 2/4, 2/7, 2/17-18, 4/2
Winter Storm Watch: 2/17-18, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Winter Storm Warning: 2/17, 3/6-8, 3/20-21
Flood Watch 2/10-11
High Wind Watch: 3/2-3
High Wind Warning: 3/2-3, 4/4

Accumulating Snowfall Dates:
12/9: 6", 12/13: 1", 12/15: 1", 12/30: 2"
1/4: 0.5", 1/16: 1.5", 1/16-17: 2.5", 1/30: 0.5"
2/4: 1.5", 2/7: 1", 2/17: 7"
3/7: 1.5", 3/12-13: 2", 3/21: 12", 3/25: 1.5"
4/2: 4"

Total: 45.5"

Average Snowfall: 32"
2016-2017: 25.5” (-6.5” from avg.)
2015-2016: 41” (+9” from avg.)
2014-2015: 48” (+16” from avg.)
2013-2014: 57.25" (+25.25” from avg.)
2012-2013: 22" (-10" from avg.)
2011-2012: 14" (-18" from avg.)
2010-2011: 24" (-8" from avg.)
2009-2010: 64" (+32" from avg.)
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NorEaster07
post Feb 9 2018, 07:14 PM
Post #22




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Great segway to the 18z. Lol.

QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 03:53 PM) *
But, I think one might not need to stretch the imagination very far to see similarity



QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 9 2018, 04:08 PM) *
Great day back in 2003. I love those slow moving come in from the SW qpf bomb storms. No need for bombogensis



QUOTE(Miller A @ Feb 9 2018, 04:29 PM) *
Wish this was an OBS thread as that's all I can offer.

Yes, Great Day!

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MD Blue Ridge
post Feb 9 2018, 07:14 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 9 2018, 07:14 PM) *
Great segway to the 18z. Lol.


No thanks.

Winter is not over.



This post has been edited by MD Blue Ridge: Feb 9 2018, 07:15 PM


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Delaware. Where snowflakes go to die.
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rtcemc
post Feb 9 2018, 09:32 PM
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QUOTE(MD Blue Ridge @ Feb 9 2018, 07:14 PM) *
No thanks.

Winter is not over.

Since you are I are CEO and Prez of the Forum B of D's, I believe it is time to start banning people.....
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bingobobbo
post Feb 9 2018, 09:35 PM
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My friend is having a retirement party on the 18th, so the likelihood of a storm increases for our part of the Northeast that day. Maybe I'll root for a miss for us and someone else in these forums will cash in.


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There is never suppression when a Great Lakes Cutter comes.
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plowxpress
post Feb 9 2018, 10:31 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 9 2018, 03:53 PM) *
But, I think one might not need to stretch the imagination very far to see similarity

[attachment=348228:gfs_mslp...zn_us_37.png]

[attachment=348229:untitled.png]


Awesome storm, except that I lost 3 plow trucks in that storm to breakdown. If I remember we were out for like 48 hrs straight. But I was also 15 years younger laugh.gif wow has it been that long huh.gif Here's hoping for a big one, these NADS have worn me down.

This post has been edited by plowxpress: Feb 9 2018, 10:31 PM
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Storms R us
post Feb 9 2018, 10:51 PM
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QUOTE(beastieboy101 @ Feb 9 2018, 05:55 PM) *
[attachment=348241:20180218...34hr_out.png]

18Z GFS looks pretty good for the I-95r's from Fredericksburg VA to Mass. I would love just 1 storm this winter over 6"

Too soon to be looking at snow maps and counting your chickens. This is still far away and things looking this good this far out haven’t been coming to be lately.

This post has been edited by Storms R us: Feb 9 2018, 10:54 PM
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psu1313
post Feb 10 2018, 02:02 AM
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00z...the GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away. Much more progressive on the 00z. I don't want to play Debbie downer but we are truly playing against the pattern. South of the Mason Dixon line, this is one of our last shots but it's still a long shot.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 05:34 AM
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QUOTE(psu1313 @ Feb 10 2018, 02:02 AM) *
00z...the GFS giveth, the GFS taketh away. Much more progressive on the 00z. I don't want to play Debbie downer but we are truly playing against the pattern. South of the Mason Dixon line, this is one of our last shots but it's still a long shot.

QUOTE
With a split flow at present, it will be tough for models to get this or the Daytona500 time pd correct.


http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...33516&st=40
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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 06:00 AM
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sad.gif mad.gif laugh.gif

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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 07:21 AM
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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 09:46 AM
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http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...33516&st=40
QUOTE
I'm nearly tempted to open a Daytona 500/ P Day thread (first time both have been on same day, since 2011) based solely on that "JD-ism" and some features I've been watching within the ensembles. With a split flow at present, it will be tough for models to get this or the Daytona500 time pd correct
.

Some days Cranky and I are on almost exactly the same page - and his graphics are always better than I would care to attempt.

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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 10 2018, 10:12 AM
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During this time period and beyond the AO is expected to tank, literally. It's forecasted to go the lowest it's been all season long, so hopefully it can kick start a nice storm for us. I was doing some research and found a few nice images for us.

This post has been edited by PA ROAD DAWG: Feb 10 2018, 10:20 AM
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MaineJay
post Feb 10 2018, 10:15 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 10 2018, 10:12 AM) *
During this time period and beyond the AO is expected to tank, literally. It's forecasted to go the lowest it's been all season long, so hopefully it can kick start a nice storm for us. I was doing some research and found a few nice images for us.



The correlations should be noted, as well as the OBS being above forecast. The 14 day is off by almost a full standard deviation. 0.75 sigma.

This post has been edited by MaineJay: Feb 10 2018, 10:17 AM


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Purveyor of handcrafted GOES16 gifs since 2017
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 10 2018, 10:21 AM
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QUOTE(beastieboy101 @ Feb 9 2018, 05:55 PM) *
[attachment=348241:20180218...34hr_out.png]

18Z GFS looks pretty good for the I-95r's from Fredericksburg VA to Mass. I would love just 1 storm this winter over 6"

Bring
It
On
tongue.gif
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 10 2018, 10:24 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 10 2018, 10:15 AM) *
The correlations should be noted, as well as the OBS being above forecast. The 14 day is off by almost a full standard deviation. 0.75 sigma.

Idk what that means, LOL
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 10 2018, 10:25 AM
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QUOTE(Storms R us @ Feb 9 2018, 10:51 PM) *
Too soon to be looking at snow maps and counting your chickens. This is still far away and things looking this good this far out haven’t been coming to be lately.

Storms....that's not at all what he was doing nor implying, he was merely commenting on THAT particular model run and data output as in IF that scenario would come to fruition then the I-95 folks he mentioned would make out well.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 10 2018, 10:27 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 10 2018, 10:12 AM) *
During this time period and beyond the AO is expected to tank, literally. It's forecasted to go the lowest it's been all season long, so hopefully it can kick start a nice storm for us. I was doing some research and found a few nice images for us.

Great work buddy, thanks for sharing smile.gif
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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 10:28 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 10 2018, 10:15 AM) *
The correlations should be noted, as well as the OBS being above forecast. The 14 day is off by almost a full standard deviation. 0.75 sigma.

Yep - as I posted to some Fb weather friends

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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 10:30 AM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 10 2018, 10:24 AM) *
Idk what that means, LOL

It means that, at present, the 14 day AO outlook only verifies 20-25% of the time. Look at today, it was forecasted 14 days ago, to be very negative - but where is it? positive territory.

IOW - to be taken with at least one PennDot truck full of road salt (if not more)
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