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> Feb 17-18, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Last minute Forecasts
rtcemc
post Feb 10 2018, 10:32 AM
Post #41




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Didn't think I would have to bloviate for UT, he is usually the first one to point out his own calls tongue.gif tongue.gif , but he wrote an excellent piece over on the long range about what has been going on this winter. It is spot on, and makes a lot of sense. Would recommend everyone going over there to read it ,and some of the other good posts there.
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MaineJay
post Feb 10 2018, 10:38 AM
Post #42




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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 10 2018, 10:24 AM) *
Idk what that means, LOL



The GFS is showing a negative bias, it's been suggesting a negative AO, but in reality is has been mostly between -1 and 1 standard deviation, which I consider *neutral*.

The correlation with OBS describes the models skill. A correlation of 1 means perfect skill, -1 would be an exact inverse, meaning the forecasts are opposite the observations. 0 would mean no skill.

At day 7 the correlation of 0.8155 shows modest skill at best lately, and it plunges from there.

And yes, a negative AO can increase the chances of cold and especially blocking. But we haven't had much beneficial blocking for our area all winter. How the sudden stratospheric warning, the MJO getting stuck in phase 7, and the interplay of these phenomena will certainly play a large role in the next few weeks. But I'm not prepared to say that we will be able to cash in big time. I do expect the models to struggle however,


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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 10 2018, 10:59 AM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 10 2018, 10:38 AM) *
The GFS is showing a negative bias, it's been suggesting a negative AO, but in reality is has been mostly between -1 and 1 standard deviation, which I consider *neutral*.

The correlation with OBS describes the models skill. A correlation of 1 means perfect skill, -1 would be an exact inverse, meaning the forecasts are opposite the observations. 0 would mean no skill.

At day 7 the correlation of 0.8155 shows modest skill at best lately, and it plunges from there.

And yes, a negative AO can increase the chances of cold and especially blocking. But we haven't had much beneficial blocking for our area all winter. How the sudden stratospheric warning, the MJO getting stuck in phase 7, and the interplay of these phenomena will certainly play a large role in the next few weeks. But I'm not prepared to say that we will be able to cash in big time. I do expect the models to struggle however,


Thanks for ruining my fun parade MJ lol
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MaineJay
post Feb 10 2018, 11:11 AM
Post #44




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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 10 2018, 10:59 AM) *
Thanks for ruining my fun parade MJ lol



Lol, it's just exercising caution. There's still plenty of time for winter storms, and March often serves up sizeable storms.

All it takes is a few well timed shortwaves. laugh.gif I've actually enjoyed the storm tracking aspect to this winter, we've had plenty of misses, but lots of activity.

Work wise, it's been trying. Lots of storms ending with crust, or worse, that slush that turns to concrete. Plus, these little snowfalls just get packed down in my driveway, so I've had to sand it many times, only for it to get iced over.

But I'll always enjoy another storm.



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The Perseids are coming, The predators are coming! Peaking ~August 12-13
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stretchct
post Feb 10 2018, 11:40 AM
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I posted negative news in the longranger. Thought I'd balance it with positive maps from the EPS/Euro. Again, take it for what it is, a pretty snow map.


Attached Image


Attached Image


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 10 2018, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 10 2018, 11:40 AM) *
I posted negative news in the longranger. Thought I'd balance it with positive maps from the EPS/Euro. Again, take it for what it is, a pretty snow map.


Attached Image


Attached Image

Indeed they are pretty!
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stretchct
post Feb 10 2018, 03:16 PM
Post #47




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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Feb 10 2018, 12:28 PM) *
Indeed they are pretty!

And of course beauty fades....


--------------------
My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis


First Torn. warn May 15. 5 confirmed in WCT/HV
First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
First 90+ day: May 3, 92.8
First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
First 70+ day: Feb 22, 77
Days over 90: 1
To make degree symbol: hold ALT type 0176 on numeric keypad

--------------------------------
Seasonal snow - normal 44"

2017-2018 74.5"
2016-17: 58"
2015-16: 33.5"
2014-2015 57"
2013-2014 58.25"
2012-2013 64.5"
2011-2012 30.5"
2010-2011 79"
2009-2010 49"
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 10 2018, 03:39 PM
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QUOTE(stretchct @ Feb 10 2018, 03:16 PM) *
And of course beauty fades....

Ain't that the truth unfortunately!
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 10 2018, 03:57 PM
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What's the season snow totals like for south central PA south into VA? Seems like they've been shafted all season long.
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hbgweather
post Feb 10 2018, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 10 2018, 04:57 PM) *
What's the season snow totals like for south central PA south into VA? Seems like they've been shafted all season long.



I'm in that area of which you speak, and I'm not entirely sure of the seasons total but I assure you it has been very underwhelming. I've only had to shovel snow once, however I've shoveled slush twice.
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phillyfan
post Feb 10 2018, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 10 2018, 03:57 PM) *
What's the season snow totals like for south central PA south into VA? Seems like they've been shafted all season long.

Here's a good site for that:
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/htm...p;js=1&uc=0


--------------------
Severe Weather 2018

Tornado Watch: 5/12
Severe T-Storm Watch: 5/15
Severe T-Storm Warning: 5/15, 6/18, 7/27
Flash Flood Watch: 5/15-16, 5/27, 7/21-22, 7/23-26, 7/27, 8/2-4, 8/11-12
Flood Watch: 5/17-19
Flood Warning: 6/10-11, 8/4
Flash Flood Warning: 7/4, 7/22-23, 7/27, 8/3-4, 8/11
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psu1313
post Feb 10 2018, 05:20 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 10 2018, 03:57 PM) *
What's the season snow totals like for south central PA south into VA? Seems like they've been shafted all season long.


We have 2.1 inches from three storms here just outside DC. We've had snow flakes on 5 occasions but 2 didn't account for anything.
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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 10 2018, 06:56 PM
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QUOTE(psu1313 @ Feb 10 2018, 05:20 PM) *
We have 2.1 inches from three storms here just outside DC. We've had snow flakes on 5 occasions but 2 didn't account for anything.

So sad man, crazy to even fathom the idea for that little amount of snow for an entire winter season thus far here in the Mid-Atl dry.gif
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weathernut29
post Feb 10 2018, 07:26 PM
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QUOTE(phillyfan @ Feb 10 2018, 04:20 PM) *

Here in Lancaster county we had a 7 inch event in December
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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 07:41 PM
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While I can appreciate that some are in the throes of the depth of despair, over the winter to date, I ask that you take those lamentations elsewhere for further discussion


Thanks
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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 07:53 PM
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Attached Image
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rtcemc
post Feb 10 2018, 08:04 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 10 2018, 10:32 AM) *
Didn't think I would have to bloviate for UT, he is usually the first one to point out his own calls tongue.gif tongue.gif , but he wrote an excellent piece over on the long range about what has been going on this winter. It is spot on, and makes a lot of sense. Would recommend everyone going over there to read it ,and some of the other good posts there.

Guess you missed this tongue.gif
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Undertakerson
post Feb 10 2018, 08:19 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 10 2018, 08:04 PM) *
Guess you missed this tongue.gif

I saw it. It was yet another in the line of OT nonsense that is borderline reportable.....

Oh wait, it's a complimentary post about "moi"? That's very different.

Never mind! laugh.gif laugh.gif

This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 10 2018, 08:20 PM
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jdrenken
post Feb 10 2018, 08:58 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 10 2018, 06:41 PM) *
While I can appreciate that some are in the throes of the depth of despair, over the winter to date, I ask that you take those lamentations elsewhere for further discussion
Thanks


But sooo many are saying winter is over! wink.gif


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rtcemc
post Feb 10 2018, 09:10 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 10 2018, 08:19 PM) *
I saw it. It was yet another in the line of OT nonsense that is borderline reportable.....

Oh wait, it's a complimentary post about "moi"? That's very different.

Never mind! laugh.gif laugh.gif

laugh.gif laugh.gif This is about the time I fear winter comes back.....
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