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> Feb 17-18, 2018 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Last minute Forecasts
Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2018, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 14 2018, 04:42 PM) *
Interesting snow total from ICON, 1.5" of qpf equates to 3" of snow.....


I believe we kind of know the SLR will be relatively low given the marginal cold around. In some cases, it's just enough and that, to me, means paste.
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StL weatherjunki...
post Feb 14 2018, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 14 2018, 04:42 PM) *
Interesting snow total from ICON, 1.5" of qpf equates to 3" of snow.....

A large chunk of that QPF falls as rain before the weekend storm in question. Hence the problem with Tropical Tidbits total QPF images.


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All model guidance is just that, guidance. It is the responsibility of the forecaster to take that information, make it better, and appropriately communicate the improved forecast to users.

We live in a day and age where the quantity of model guidance is overwhelming, particularly within 24 hours of an event. We must remind ourselves that all models are wrong, but some are more useful than others.
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NorEaster07
post Feb 14 2018, 04:53 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 14 2018, 04:48 PM) *
A large chunk of that QPF falls as rain before the weekend storm in question. Hence the problem with Tropical Tidbits total QPF images.


Good point. Better to look at the 12 or 24hr totals vs total to forecast hr.

Nam18z 1pm Sat to 1am Sun

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=...us_ma&dpdt=

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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 14 2018, 04:54 PM
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Uh oh....gfs says not today.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2018, 04:54 PM
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Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2018, 05:00 PM
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Reprimand myself for not having checked 12z MREF - could have seen this run coming

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phillyfan
post Feb 14 2018, 05:00 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 14 2018, 04:54 PM) *

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blink.gif laugh.gif


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Undertakerson
post Feb 14 2018, 05:02 PM
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So - we have the models once east, now west - and those once west now east - the NAV maintaining the outside western edge of the still large envelope.

Can't wait to see ClapperTracker ™ for this go around.

Did I mention that there's a spli..... (remembers post a few pages ago, decides not to finish though)
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Black05GSR
post Feb 14 2018, 05:07 PM
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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Feb 14 2018, 04:54 PM) *
Uh oh....gfs says not today.




--------------------
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 11/7 (1.5"); 11/20 (0.5"); 12/9 (4.5"); 12/14 (3"); 12/15 (1"); 12/30 (2.5"); 1/4 (2.5"); 1/30 (2.5"); 2/2 (4"); 2/4 (5"); 2/7 (2"); 2/17 (5.5"); 3/2 (10.5"); 3/7 (9.5"); 3/8 (3"); 3/13 (3"); 3/21 (3"); 4/2 (7")
Total: 70.5" Avg. 49"

NJ - 12/9 (5.5"); 12/14 (1.25"); 12/15 (1.5"); 12/30 (0.5"); 1/4 (7"); 2/17 (6"); 3/7 (6"); 3/13 (1"); 3/21 (11"); 4/2 (6")
Total: 45.75"
Avg. 26"
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risingriver
post Feb 14 2018, 05:07 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 14 2018, 05:02 PM) *
So - we have the models once east, now west - and those once west now east - the NAV maintaining the outside western edge of the still large envelope.

Can't wait to see ClapperTracker ™ for this go around.

Did I mention that there's a spli..... (remembers post a few pages ago, decides not to finish though)

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Wise choice.
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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2018, 05:08 PM
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Here we go, since 12z yesterday .. common theme I see is exiting around Delmarva region. UK closest to the NAV track at 12z .. still lots of hopping with the track. Tricky tricky.

12z only top... trend animation bottom

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Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2018, 05:09 PM
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Will be able to add 0z NAM to the tracker tonight too! smile.gif


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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LUCC
post Feb 14 2018, 05:23 PM
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QUOTE(StL weatherjunkie @ Feb 14 2018, 04:48 PM) *
A large chunk of that QPF falls as rain before the weekend storm in question. Hence the problem with Tropical Tidbits total QPF images.

Yes, you are correct, I thought I had it as 24hr qpf total.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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Miller A
post Feb 14 2018, 05:47 PM
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Holly AFD

"We do not have an snowfall forecast map yet, that will come tonight,
but we do expect some accumulating snowfall for a good portion
of the area Saturday evening and Saturday night."

This post has been edited by Miller A: Feb 14 2018, 05:47 PM
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 


--------------------
TOTAL 2017-18: 52.35"
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"

TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"


Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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PlanetMaster
post Feb 14 2018, 05:52 PM
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Wow step out for a few hours and ten pages to catch up on, guess nothing much happening...



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LUCC
post Feb 14 2018, 05:53 PM
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QUOTE(PlanetMaster @ Feb 14 2018, 05:52 PM) *
Wow step out for a few hours and ten pages to catch up on, guess nothing much happening...


Yeah, don't fret, long term forecast calls for warm and rain.


--------------------

Winter '17-'18 Total: 49.25"
Winter '16-'17 Total: 22.5"
Winter '15-'16 Total: 30.5"
Winter '14-'15 Total: 41.5"
Winter '13-'14 Total: 62.0"
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MaineJay
post Feb 14 2018, 06:27 PM
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Took forever to get this thing attached.

Shortwave is moving through Alaska currently, 0z balloons go up in 45, hopefully all of them.

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http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...&height=480


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jdrenken
post Feb 14 2018, 06:29 PM
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Hey...who's watching DT's podcast? wink.gif


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USMC Snowman
post Feb 14 2018, 06:31 PM
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Bernies latest video on twitter say that snow is possible but he is skeptical of the models.

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno?ref_src=twsrc...7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
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JDClapper
post Feb 14 2018, 06:36 PM
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QUOTE(MaineJay @ Feb 14 2018, 06:27 PM) *
Took forever to get this thing attached.

Shortwave is moving through Alaska currently, 0z balloons go up in 45, hopefully all of them.

Attached Image

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/on...&height=480


Oh man.. I haven't done this in awhile.. tracing back the energies.. memories.

Circled in black is the shortwave you mentioned. I also traced the southern stream back to a couple places.. some vort off the OR coast kinda gets left behind and picked up by the energy SW of CA.. clean cut stuff right there.

Attached Image


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2017: 34"

Current Season: 22"

Last Season: 2016-2017 = 44"

Best Season: 2002-2003 = 63"

Worst Season: 2015-2016 = 7"

Largest Storm: 3/14/2017 = 17"


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Pro tip for all users: When catching up on a thread, go back at least 2 pages from the current page and read. ... Read ...
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