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Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
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Joined: 21-December 09
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Last Seen: 15th February 2018 - 04:05 PM
Local Time: Feb 18 2018, 01:23 PM
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My Content
2 Feb 2018
Now understand this thread is simply for fun and based mainly off organic forecasting.

I find all the winter is over talk fascinating as just last year winter was over and we then got Stella, a highly ranked storm where many saw record snow.

So Winter really isn't over until spring is here.

If the mods want to delete this they absolutely can. I hope they don't as it took some work drafting this all up and matching the dates. The gfs does not go out this far so by rules I will use the daily CFS as my operational Guidance.

I fully expect some posters won't view this as fun and there will of course be some backlash, but none that I will really sweat nor entertain as I mentioned this is mainly for FUN in the middle of all the winter is over talk.

What sparked my interest this morning was the largest SOID drop that I've seen this winter.

The pattern currently seems dominant with the nothern stream winning out. The bsr has agreed regarding the recent pattern as well. Although the long range BSR has a ULL and surface map that generates a Storm from Sout to north.

14 Jan 2018
JDrenken had me reading some thoughts from uncle Larry cosgrove which caused me to look towards the end of January for our next significant threat.

Snippet from uncle larrys google drive


So bsr has a nice storm originating from the western GOM and moving due NE into our forecasting area around the same time that uncle Larry is suggesting. So I had to dive in further....


10 Jan 2018
Firstly the bsr looks excellent with an opportunity at phasing the PAC and artic jets

I notice an hp in the pna region which leans me to believe a +pna will be available


4 Jan 2018
Let's take a stab here

Soi delta has a large drop for this period

Bsr suggests a potent 523 ULL with retro flow on east coast

Bsr valid 12z on 12th shows a close phase, marked in black lines

I averaged outvthe harmonics and rrwt charts all point to ~57 day smoothed oscillation

We go back to nov 16th

Drop the polar night winds down since it's reconfigured further south since nov and we look good. Is that a possible ULL around 5050 ohmy.gif

Ear has lowered heights over the east coast with a large height rise/blocking during this period, could either be a signal or often times messes with the ear. Enough organic support to fire this up still though.
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