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MaineJay
Rank: F5 Superstorm
Age Unknown
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25 mi. NNW of Portland, ME, elev. ~400ft.
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Joined: 15-February 13
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Local Time: Aug 16 2017, 11:58 PM
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MaineJay

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7 Jul 2017
Just wanted to get this started, hopefully some of our members get a good view. Looking at you "show me state". tongue.gif

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9 Jun 2017
Everybody wanted some summer, looks like a taste.

Might have to add tomorrow, perhaps some reach heatwave criteria?

NAM


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GFS
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GYX
QUOTE
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The story to start the extended will be hot wx. In a spring that
has only featured brief incursions of warmer temps...this will
feel more like summer. Sun and Mon...ensemble guidance forecasts
mean H8 temps around 18C. This is supportive of highs around 90.
Coupled with this will be moderate SW flow...so some downslope
assisted warming is possible in the favored spots of SW and Srn
NH into York County ME. Given the Wly wind component this should
hold the sea breeze mostly at bay and allow even coastal
locations to get to near 90. Mon carries a little more
uncertainty in mid level temps...as decaying convection from the
Midwest may impact the area during the day. The wider range is
shown the the ensemble guidance...with some members as warm as
the lower 20s...or as cool at 15C. Regardless on the cool side
that would be enough for widespread mid 80s. There will be a
round of convection in the Midwest tonight before the round
models are hinting at impacting this area will form...so there
is a lot of uncertainty. For now I will hedge towards warmer
solutions...with convection impacting mainly Nrn zones and
leaving Srn zones in the 90s. With increasing dew points pooling
S of the advancing cold front we will have to keep an eye out
for potential heat advisories if we can get consecutive days
with heat index values 95 or greater.


BOX
QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
* Potential heat wave for much of area from Sunday to Tuesday
* Chance of thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
* Much cooler Wednesday and Thursday

Overview...

Upper ridge builds along USA east coast Sunday through Tuesday.
Short wave energy erodes upper ridge Tuesday afternoon/night in
New England accompanied by surface backdoor cold front. A number
of locations across southern New England back from the south
coast may record a three day heat wave for Sunday through
Tuesday. Preliminary indications are that ridge will strengthen
offshore of the eastern sea board as an upper trough amplifies
over the Mississippi Valley late next week into the coming
weekend. This could set the stage for a deep and moist southerly
flow.

Longwave scale shows a building ridge over the central and eastern
USA during the period. The ridge shifts west midweek and brings a
northwest flow across New England. Shortwave scale also shows high
pressure building over the eastern half of the nation for the first
part of next week. A trough near Hudsons Bay digs southeast into the
Maritimes Tuesday-Wednesday. Closed low over the western USA sweeps
northeast into Canada, then east toward New England late in the
week.

Details...

Sunday-Monday-Tuesday...Moderate-High confidence.

Upper ridge along the USA coast and surface high pressure
centered to southeast of New England will result in a southwest
flow with 850 mb temperatures generally 18-19C. Dewpoints are
projected to be in the lower 60s on Sunday and the upper 60s
Monday and Tuesday. May encounter heat index values 95 to 100
degrees on Monday. May see the heat index get close to the mid
90s on Tuesday, possibly bringing a few areas close to Heat
Advisory criteria.

The air mass lacks sufficient moisture and may feature a
subsidence inversion 5 to 10 thousand feet to inhibit convection
Sunday and Monday. That subsidence inversion may begin to
breakdown and increasing moisture might, however, bring slight
chance for showers/thunderstorms Monday night along and north of
the route 2 corridor.

Anticipate scattered thunderstorms to develop ahead of sagging
cold front boundary Tuesday afternoon. There may be marginally enough
vertical shear for a few thunderstorms to be strong, although
it`s unusual climatologically to experience widespread deep
convection ahead of a backdoor cold front. Although the 12Z GFS
model is a little more aggressive with its depiction of
instability parameters, the 12Z ECMWF depicts a roughly similar
pattern.
20 Apr 2017
Models are starting to turn up the heat.

PMDEPD
QUOTE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CA, MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW. BY SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE HIGH
ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS APPEAR TO BE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA AS WELL AS
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. PRECIPITATION NEAR THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN
BORDER AND GREAT LAKES COULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW TO THE NORTH
OF THE MAIN STORM TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER 48.

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR
CORNERS/GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
INCREASINGLY THROUGH THE MIDWEST, SOUTHEAST, AND OHIO VALLEY INTO
NEW ENGLAND BY MID NEXT WEEK
. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
TAKE UP INCREASING REAL ESTATE WITH TIME WEST OF 80W, STARTING
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.

ROTH


GEFS days 6-10
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EPS
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CPC analogs days 6-10
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7 Apr 2017
I'm actually a bit excited for this.

As there is still a foot of glacier in my yard, and after 130" of snow. 70 would feel great. I'll extend the dates if necessary, but as of now, it looks like a brief cool interlude before any additional warmth will move in

GFS
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ECMWF
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22 Mar 2017
Torturing folks with another thread. Looks like we will see a bit of a wave train rolling through. Not a ton of amplification, but who knows.

ECMWF

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GFS

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UKie (pregame)

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Last Visitors


2 Jul 2017 - 23:55


9 Jun 2017 - 10:05


21 May 2017 - 14:47


7 May 2017 - 9:12


29 Mar 2017 - 20:37

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