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ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:48 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
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Today was a day of very interesting weather.

Obviously it got hot really quick, then storms popped up really quick. They were all to my north and east so we didn't get any of it, but we did get the gust front from the storms. I will say that was the sharpest/most sudden drop in temp I've ever felt without rain actually falling. It had to have been 10+ degrees and drier air within 30 seconds. Went from skin shining with sweat to goosebumps from the cooling effect of evaporating sweat.

It was pretty cool (temp-wise) for like 30 minutes with a persistent, moderately strong easterly rain-cooled wind, but the atmosphere obviously stabilized from that and the clouds disappeared, allowing for the sun to warm us back up to near where we were before the gust front came through.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330337 · Replies: · Views: 2,760

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Yesterday, 11:17 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


Yeah, well above average May... above average June so far, but the heat waves not nearly as extreme as 2012. But I think Michael Ventrice's Tweet may not be too far off.

June 2012 is held on a pedestal somewhat unjustly due to the heat seen in the last week or so of the month. The month ended being around a degree or two above average for IL/IN/OH, but everyone just remembers the late June heat wave and not the seasonable/seasonably cool start to the month. I fall in that category.

I now believe this June will be warmer than 2012 for many of us in the MW, but we won't see a heat wave like we did in late June 2012. We've come close... for example, Cincy hit the mid-90's for 3 days in a row. That's pretty darn impressive but not quite on the same level as 2, almost 3 days in a row of 100+ degrees

Looking like we return to the hot pattern next week and beyond.

I'm already up to 8 days above 90 this year, while we only saw 11 days above 90 all of last year and we're barely past mid-June. Let's see if it can be maintained into July and August.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330334 · Replies: · Views: 17,228

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 18 2018, 11:51 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


On that note...

"Current" PWAT


PWAT tomorrow before convection


Around 1.7-2.0 inches PWAT is typically considered tropical. Average PWAT for SW OH at this time of year is ~1.1 inches. HRRR is showing widespread 1.7"+

Another thing is the almost non-existent winds. Storms won't be moving much. Look at that hodograph laugh.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330296 · Replies: · Views: 428

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 18 2018, 11:32 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


A nice stationary front is going to set up generally around the I70 corridor. A low is finally gonna form in the Plains near the end of the week to move it out of here. The pattern is prime for Midwest/Corn Belt/OV rain. However, I will say, the expected amount of convection is probably going to throw some wrenches into the forecast. Debris clouds may hinder heating that would otherwise encourage storm development. On the flip side, outflow boundaries could focus/enhance storm coverage and rainfall totals.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330294 · Replies: · Views: 428

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 16 2018, 09:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


El Nino watch is in effect. CFS is showing a high-end weak/low-end moderate, JAMSTEC is showing a solid moderate. Both models show Nino 1+2 will be the coolest of the 4 regions. CFS focuses the Nino on 3.4, JAMSTEC on 3.

I wouldn't put much stock on either model right now. Give it a few months and see where we're at. But feel free to monitor them and also the subsurface.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330223 · Replies: · Views: 392

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 16 2018, 09:03 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
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Got missed by the storms today. Gust front got too far ahead of the storms, lost the instability. Ended up having lightning to our south and our north, but nothing around us. Got some brief rain but that was it.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330222 · Replies: · Views: 1,183

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 16 2018, 08:36 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(btbucks @ Jun 16 2018, 04:16 PM) *
I don't recall these storms being in the forecast but maybe we are in that part of the summer that T-storms are always possible. Nearest cell is about 10 miles east of me but its gotten noticeable cooler here.

'tis the season. Can't entirely rule out strong/severe storms when the heat index is in the upper 90's.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330220 · Replies: · Views: 1,183

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 15 2018, 09:15 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(FireworkWX03 @ Jun 15 2018, 01:21 PM) *
Outside of a shot for something marginal Mon/Tue, it looks pretty quiet in Ohio for the next 7-10 days. GFS fantasy land likes to bring back SVR wx ingredients towards the end of its run, but who knows.

We have about what, a 2 month window for the primary severe weather season remaining on average? It seems to shut off mid-late August but this can be variable. I've seen it die out at the end of July or go until mid-September.

Per SPC's severe weather climatology, our severe weather season goes from March 31-August 30... but I'd say March is more active than August because it is kinda boring.

But the peak of our season does last for 2 or 3 months. I'd say mid-April through late July, with the first half being more tornadic and the second half having more MCSs
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330191 · Replies: · Views: 1,183

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 14 2018, 01:47 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Jun 13 2018, 11:53 PM) *
Ha we look to have an impressive 2 day stretch here that pushes at least one of those into 90s before we get another front coming in the area tuesday, depending on when may bring in some warmer temps. Saturday is a little bit of a toss as we get warm air pushing in aloft but surface might not react quite like we would expect although downsloping may help that situation hey who knows maybe another mini heat wave situation again.

No worries though in a week im heading out west so im sure ill be dealing with the heat out in vegas and cali until I get to the Pac nw then hopefully it cools off. Ill take dps in the 30's and 40's though over 70's any day.

It really hasn't been that humid yet this year. I guess that makes sense with how high the highs have been, but I can only remember a few times so far where I noticed the humidity.

Looking at possibly record breaking maximum lows this weekend though. It'll get down to the coolest high temp we've seen this month (mid-70's).
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330143 · Replies: · Views: 17,228

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 14 2018, 01:32 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(ColoradoChinook @ Jun 13 2018, 08:31 PM) *
This shows likely tornado debris in the hills and low mountains of northern Pennsylvania (KBGM radar)


I saw the debris signature in 2 scans and the warning still was only radar indicated rotation, no confirmed. rolleyes.gif
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330142 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 13 2018, 11:45 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jun 13 2018, 12:29 PM) *
Parameters look okay around here for action later if the storms don't die out as they head SSE.

Nearly 4000 CAPE ahead of that line of storms. Front is pushing southeast while the cloud tops are being pushed off to the east-northeast so the warm sector isn't contaminated by anvils. Shear isn't the best but also isn't the worst. Winds out of the west at the surface, out of the northwest aloft. Not bad. Maybe a brief supercell or two today?

Last day until summer returns with a vengeance.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330120 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 13 2018, 11:27 AM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


QUOTE(NWOhioChaser @ Jun 13 2018, 09:27 AM) *
We've had a pretty wet and muggy June here in Northwest Ohio so far. 4.37" IMBY with a few places hitting 10". 10 of 12 days above 80*
but 7 of those we've had measurable rainfall. It's going to be hot with heat indicies approaching 100* over the weekend. Summer's here.

Has it not been? laugh.gif It's mid-June and I've already seen 4 days >90 degrees. Last year only had 11 days total, with the last one being in late September.

Forecast is calling for 4 of the next 7 days being above 90 degrees, with another day in the upper 80's. Highest forecast temp is 95 degrees. That'll be fun.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #2330118 · Replies: · Views: 17,228

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 11:06 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Some insanity on the models. GFS showing 7000 CAPE... blink.gif



NAM

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330103 · Replies: · Views: 1,183

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 09:11 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 29,453


A cell near Dillsboro (just SW of Lawrenceburg/SE of Versailles) could go tornado warned soon. ILN's radial velocity shows low-level veering, too.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330099 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 09:01 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
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ILN sounding is marginal in every way. But I could see how a weak/brief tornado could happen where the low-level winds are more veered.

  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330098 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 12 2018, 08:55 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Rogue tornado in SE IN. Confirmed by law enforcement.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330097 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 07:27 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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New severe warning up for 90 MPH winds. Velocity shows 102 MPH winds about 3600 feet above ground.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330072 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 07:12 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Now almost entirely in a squall now with embedded supercells. Very dangerous squall... not only with damaging winds, also with tornadoes... especially in the southern part of the squall.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330071 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 07:00 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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Warnings going up everywhere. No debris signatures at all today.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330070 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 06:50 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 11 2018, 07:18 PM) *
It's a HP mess. Watching the cells in west Iowa. They're on the warm front with better overall shear.



Almost 40 minutes later, it's finally coming together.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330068 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 06:49 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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92 MPH RFD with the HP supercell. Rotation on the southern tornado warning is almost right over Otoe.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330067 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 06:44 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
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QUOTE(ClicheVortex2014 @ Jun 11 2018, 07:26 PM) *
New warning up. Went from moving east at 5 MPH to moving southeast at 20 MPH

This image came at around the same time that a tornado report came in saying "large wedge."
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330066 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 06:39 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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From: Dayton, Ohio
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The HP supercell is back to having a (radar) confirmed tornado.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330064 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 06:37 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
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Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
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Been watching the line which is actually embedded supercells because there was an RFD surge about 10 minutes ago... just needed some inflow. We got it at least temporarily.
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330063 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

ClicheVortex2014
Posted on: Jun 11 2018, 06:26 PM


Rank: F5 Superstorm
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Group: Member
Posts: 22,563
Joined: 21-April 14
From: Dayton, Ohio
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New warning up. Went from moving east at 5 MPH to moving southeast at 20 MPH
  Forum: Current Weather - United States · Post Preview: #2330062 · Replies: · Views: 4,876

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