Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2012, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs Options

[NYCSuburbs]

I'm new to posting about this -- how much credibility can we give models this far out really? Percentage-wise how much do they tend to verify in the future?

Beyond 8-10 days out, not on the specifics. For example if a model shows a hurricane striking your area 9-10 days out or so it's nothing to worry about (yet) as a lot can change in the long range. They typically gain a somewhat better handle on the realistic scenarios in the 5-7 day range, or in other words not the fantasy solution showed 8+ days out, but are still subject to change as we've seen with Isaac which was originally modeled to go out to sea 7 days in advance.

[Ron in Miami]

Smoly hokes - the 18z GFS! Looks like Isaac Part Deux!

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_18z/mrfloop2.html

You gotta be kidding...

I just saw that run, and it was dam similar to Issac...except it went north of Puerto Rico and Dominica & Haiti before going parallel to the north coast of cuba. Gonna have to watch the models for the next few days for that one!

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[phillyfan]

You gotta be kidding...

I just saw that run, and it was dam similar to Issac...except it went north of Puerto Rico and Dominica & Haiti before going parallel to the north coast of cuba. Gonna have to watch the models for the next few days for that one!

A couple days ago it was up the east coast or out to sea, lots of time to watch this one. That would be a kick in the pants if that run came true.

[Ron in Miami]

That model run of the GFS just became invest 98.

[KSpring1]

Beyond 8-10 days out, not on the specifics. For example if a model shows a hurricane striking your area 9-10 days out or so it's nothing to worry about (yet) as a lot can change in the long range. They typically gain a somewhat better handle on the realistic scenarios in the 5-7 day range, or in other words not the fantasy solution showed 8+ days out, but are still subject to change as we've seen with Isaac which was originally modeled to go out to sea 7 days in advance.

Thanks for the reply! Good to know this!!

[Phased Vort]

I think I see a chance that the synoptic pattern over the north Atlantic ocean, may go in the direction of pretty strong east to west ridging, with a pretty decent CAR developing sometime around the middle of September, just after the peak of the Atlanticīs tropical cyclone peak.

At that time, I think there could be a decent shot at a tropical cyclone trying to affect the eastern CONUS.

Letīs see how this goes.

[Phased Vort]

I think I see a chance that the synoptic pattern over the north Atlantic ocean, may go in the direction of pretty strong east to west ridging, with a pretty decent CAR developing sometime around the middle of September, just after the peak of the Atlanticīs tropical cyclone peak.

At that time, I think there could be a decent shot at a tropical cyclone trying to affect the eastern CONUS.

Letīs see how this goes.

Still think that by mid September, the North Atlantic will get into a synopict pattern in which the North Atlantic ridge will be strong enough without many weaknesses, to allow for a more or less east to west flow for the waves coming off of Africa.

[Phased Vort]

Still thinking that a more regular east to west flow over the north Atlantic around mid September and on, should setup and with it allow for an increased risk for one or two tropical cyclones affecting the CONUS, eastern seaboard or GOMEX again. Would not be surprised to see the eastern seaboard get in the action with a tropical cyclone before early October.