Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

46 Pages V  « < 44 45 46  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Long Range Winter 2017-2018: Thoughts, Outlooks and Discussion, Share your thoughts, forecasts, on-going trends and more
OSNW3
post Today, 12:17 PM
Post #901




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,954
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 11:27 AM) *
So again, I'll show my lack of knowledge on this stuff, but that's what I'm here to do...learn. I don't know what the RRWT is or what it means, but also about what is the approximate verification rate of the RRWT, or BSR, or EAR, or any of them really. Because, to me, and I could be wrong, but it seems like when I read these threads people say 'this rule hints at such and such an event', but it seems to rarely materialize. I know that it won't always hold, but it seems it very rarely even resembles what occurs elsewhere. Again, maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't really know much about this stuff.


I can shed some light on them for you.

RRWT = Recurring Rossby Wave Train
Currently the only verification being done is through the Rodeo competition. The method performs well at times. When it fails I suspect it is my interpretation of the method and not the method itself. Someone else could be doing a much better job with it. Scores are located here, the team utilizing the RRWT, well my version of it at least, is lupoa13.

BSR = Bering Sea Rule
EAR = East Asia Rule
There is a published paper (Renken et al. 2017) with verification of prior time frames. I keep tabs on a current 3 day rate of change as well. Not quite verification scoring, but trending of observed values.

If you have further questions or comments please let the forum know. Many folks on here are well versed in the referenced subjects.

This post has been edited by OSNW3: Today, 12:19 PM


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Today, 12:22 PM
Post #902




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,954
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 21 2017, 12:12 PM) *
Yea probably laugh.gif

But Josh's post does show the extremes the time frame could hold for the east coast given current rrwt conditions smile.gif

Also thanks for digging that up Josh


My pleasure. Great catch on the possibility! smile.gif


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Today, 12:49 PM
Post #903




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 10:27 AM) *
So again, I'll show my lack of knowledge on this stuff, but that's what I'm here to do...learn. I don't know what the RRWT is or what it means, but also about what is the approximate verification rate of the RRWT, or BSR, or EAR, or any of them really. Because, to me, and I could be wrong, but it seems like when I read these threads people say 'this rule hints at such and such an event', but it seems to rarely materialize. I know that it won't always hold, but it seems it very rarely even resembles what occurs elsewhere. Again, maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't really know much about this stuff.




Josh's post was perfect with the definitions.
QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 10:27 AM) *
Because, to me, and I could be wrong, but it seems like when I read these threads people say 'this rule hints at such and such an event', but it seems to rarely materialize.


It's all a matter of perception. There are those who misinterpret the said rules as locking in an actual HECS or what not. For us, it's a pattern recognition technique.

One of my favorite quotes that I've used over the years...

QUOTE
We sniff out the pattern, specifics come later!


Our paper that Josh linked showed we have a success ratio of 71.1% for the BSR and 68.6% for the EAR in identifying 2σ events. Mind you, that's a 71.1% chance of finding a 2σ event 19 days in advance for the lower 48!


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ahoff
post Today, 02:36 PM
Post #904




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 89
Joined: 28-January 17
From: Pittsburgh
Member No.: 31,393





Thanks for answering guys. So basically, it just sets up the pattern that could produce storms? In other words, we could see conditions favorable for what happened in Asia 3 weeks prior, but something storm-wise may not actually come together?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Today, 03:07 PM
Post #905




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 38,236
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 01:36 PM) *
Thanks for answering guys. So basically, it just sets up the pattern that could produce storms? In other words, we could see conditions favorable for what happened in Asia 3 weeks prior, but something storm-wise may not actually come together?


Incorrect.

Bering Sea Rule is 17-21 days...usually go with 19.
East Asia Rule is 6-10 days...usually go with 8.

Doesn't just apply to storms either. Our paper showed that we can match cold blast and heat waves too.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.



Organicforecasting Blog
Organicforecasting data
89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
RobB
post Today, 03:12 PM
Post #906




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Founding Member
Posts: 39,771
Joined: 7-March 04
From: Dayton, Ohio
Member No.: 16





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2017, 03:07 PM) *
Incorrect.

Bering Sea Rule is 17-21 days...usually go with 19.
East Asia Rule is 6-10 days...usually go with 8.

Doesn't just apply to storms either. Our paper showed that we can match cold blast and heat waves too.



Nice!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Ahoff
post Today, 03:48 PM
Post #907




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 89
Joined: 28-January 17
From: Pittsburgh
Member No.: 31,393





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Nov 21 2017, 03:07 PM) *
Incorrect.

Bering Sea Rule is 17-21 days...usually go with 19.
East Asia Rule is 6-10 days...usually go with 8.

Doesn't just apply to storms either. Our paper showed that we can match cold blast and heat waves too.


Wow. So does the EAR and BSR correlate to each other? Can they give us hints about the same patterns for the US, like if the BSR finds something one day, and we could connect it 19 days from that day in the US, would the EAR pick up that same event 11 days after the BSR?

Sorry, if that's confusing, or if I'm asking too many questions.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Today, 03:57 PM
Post #908




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,545
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(Ahoff @ Nov 21 2017, 03:48 PM) *
Wow. So does the EAR and BSR correlate to each other? Can they give us hints about the same patterns for the US, like if the BSR finds something one day, and we could connect it 19 days from that day in the US, would the EAR pick up that same event 11 days after the BSR?

Sorry, if that's confusing, or if I'm asking too many questions.


You are getting to a point/discovering what we like to call the "trifecta" in organic forecasting

Essentially it is when the BSR the EAR and the RRWT all agree

And I can tell you first hand that when trifecta conditions appear there is a high probability of said forecast coming to light.

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Today, 03:58 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Today, 04:08 PM
Post #909




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,954
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





QUOTE(PoconoSnow @ Nov 21 2017, 03:57 PM) *
You are getting to a point/discovering what we like to call the "trifecta" in organic forecasting

Essentially it is when the BSR the EAR and the RRWT all agree

And I can tell you first hand that when trifecta conditions appear there is a high probability of said forecast coming to light.


I enjoy your optimism! Below I present a case of the "trifecta" failing. smile.gif

https://twitter.com/OSNW3/status/673892569114419200
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dw...t_20151225.html


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
OSNW3
post Today, 04:12 PM
Post #910




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,954
Joined: 29-June 11
From: Oshkosh, WI
Member No.: 25,792





I will attempt to get back on topic.

Attached File  2mTempNorthAmericaWeeks3_4.png ( 388.12K ) Number of downloads: 8


http://cola.gmu.edu/kpegion/subx/index.html


--------------------
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Undertakerson
post Today, 04:13 PM
Post #911




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 28,878
Joined: 12-February 10
From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA
Member No.: 21,746





Of all the OFMs (organic forecasting methods) in use, I use only the Typhoon Rule (essentially the same as EAR, but conditional on there being a typhoon recurving before the Japan Prefecture) which has the same date range of 6-10 days (8 being a solid middle ground). But then again, it has the least amount of "lag" time for the corollary. I find it difficult to feel to that same level about the EAR, but that's probably just me.

The BSR, of course, if highly useful and nailed plenty of (particularly winter) storms. Built a shrine to it, I did (see Jan 2016 winter storm thread for MidAtl/NE) laugh.gif I struggle using it some other times.

RRWT gets my poor little mind all twisted up in knots and gives me a headache. I just follow what Josh has to say and leave it at that.

When there's blocking in the Pac, all bets are off for me and I all but disregard (downplay) everything outside of D5 a those times. (like recently)

Overall, I remain "bearish" on this winter for the MidAtl/NE (to a lesser extent, NE, that is) unless/until serious W based NAO/blocking manifests for real.

There should be some "winter" in this season, even for those regions (IMBY) but I expect few pure snow events of significance and think NADS (nickel and dime snow) will rule the roost for most of the cold season.

The zone I do like for winter this year is, actually, the OHV (and, no, I'm not just trying to pump RobB's tires with that) as they more easily sneak in enough cold air for over running systems to deliver the freight. Maybe a decent W App runner in the mix at some point.

I wish I could be less dour about winter IMBY but, as with most people, I set the bar lower and if surpassed, I'm delighted. (caveat - I really am not liking the cold and snow of winter, now that I approach my 6th decade on this marble dry.gif, laugh.gif )
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Today, 04:20 PM
Post #912




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,545
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 21 2017, 04:08 PM) *


And on Christmas no less lol

Nothing is infallible

Still alright in my book smile.gif.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
PoconoSnow
post Today, 04:35 PM
Post #913




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,545
Joined: 21-December 09
From: Foothills of the Poconos - elev 950'
Member No.: 20,494





QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Nov 21 2017, 04:13 PM) *
Of all the OFMs (organic forecasting methods) in use, I use only the Typhoon Rule (essentially the same as EAR, but conditional on there being a typhoon recurving before the Japan Prefecture) which has the same date range of 6-10 days (8 being a solid middle ground). But then again, it has the least amount of "lag" time for the corollary. I find it difficult to feel to that same level about the EAR, but that's probably just me.

The BSR, of course, if highly useful and nailed plenty of (particularly winter) storms. Built a shrine to it, I did (see Jan 2016 winter storm thread for MidAtl/NE) laugh.gif I struggle using it some other times.

RRWT gets my poor little mind all twisted up in knots and gives me a headache. I just follow what Josh has to say and leave it at that.

When there's blocking in the Pac, all bets are off for me and I all but disregard (downplay) everything outside of D5 a those times. (like recently)

Overall, I remain "bearish" on this winter for the MidAtl/NE (to a lesser extent, NE, that is) unless/until serious W based NAO/blocking manifests for real.

There should be some "winter" in this season, even for those regions (IMBY) but I expect few pure snow events of significance and think NADS (nickel and dime snow) will rule the roost for most of the cold season.

The zone I do like for winter this year is, actually, the OHV (and, no, I'm not just trying to pump RobB's tires with that) as they more easily sneak in enough cold air for over running systems to deliver the freight. Maybe a decent W App runner in the mix at some point.

I wish I could be less dour about winter IMBY but, as with most people, I set the bar lower and if surpassed, I'm delighted. (caveat - I really am not liking the cold and snow of winter, now that I approach my 6th decade on this marble dry.gif, laugh.gif )


I too can't seem to get on board for an above average wintercold or snow for my area and above a bit.

Nothing scientific, it's just the last two years had to be saved by two very large storms to even pull average snowfall.

As for temps it's hard to say any djf month will be below normal departures. It doesn't happen too often and when it has recently i remember it being more in the feb and march months. But also remember an extremely warm march not too long ago.

I don't keep stats or books. I have a pws offline and a rain gauge and a backup I usually forget to empty smile.gif

Nesis storms are happening at quite a larger clip in the last 25 years. The stats are out there somewhere.

It's kinda hard not to look at winters like fishing trips anymore... less smaller fish on the stream lately but the chances of finding a certified trophy has risen.

I dunno or something like that laugh.gif

This post has been edited by PoconoSnow: Today, 04:36 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Gnutella
post Today, 04:53 PM
Post #914




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 562
Joined: 15-December 09
From: Athens, GA
Member No.: 20,211





QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Nov 21 2017, 04:12 PM) *
I will attempt to get back on topic.

Attached File  2mTempNorthAmericaWeeks3_4.png ( 388.12K ) Number of downloads: 8


http://cola.gmu.edu/kpegion/subx/index.html


Near normal, below normal, near to below normal, near to above normal, much below normal, below normal and below normal. I can live with that. smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

46 Pages V  « < 44 45 46
Reply to this topicStart new topic
5 User(s) are reading this topic (5 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 21st November 2017 - 10:55 PM