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bigmt
Posted on: Jan 7 2015, 10:43 AM


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In terms of the ridge migrating east, the 06z GFS ensembles depict it as transitory in nature:

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1941763 · Replies: · Views: 1,219,905

bigmt
Posted on: Jan 7 2015, 10:41 AM


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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 7 2015, 10:35 AM) *
Gotcha! LOL...How long have I been visiting this page and have never clicked on the Daily Link. Thanks for the heads up! I have edited my original. At least I chose the GEFS graphics...


No problem, I'm well-acquainted with the idiosyncrasies of the e-wall page smile.gif

There's a ton of good info there but the whole thing could use a revamp in terms of functionality.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1941762 · Replies: · Views: 1,219,905

bigmt
Posted on: Jan 7 2015, 10:33 AM


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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 7 2015, 10:28 AM) *
It is indeed, but that labeling is actually on their page as I copied and pasted it. Not sure why it says GFS but that is not a label I created for it wink.gif

Link


That's the daily departure loop and if you click the 7-day running mean link at the top-left it takes you there. When you're on the running mean loop it becomes a link back to the daily anomalies.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1941755 · Replies: · Views: 1,219,905

bigmt
Posted on: Jan 7 2015, 10:11 AM


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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 7 2015, 08:41 AM) *
A little break in the action..

GFS 7-DAY RUNNING MEAN DEPARTURE at day 14:


huh.gif

This is the 7-day running mean @ day 14 from the 00z GEFS:

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1941735 · Replies: · Views: 1,219,905

bigmt
Posted on: Oct 19 2014, 09:01 AM


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My preliminary outlook, made a concerted effort to branch beyond my usual Canadian interests this go around - http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?sh...t&p=1910112
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1910113 · Replies: · Views: 17,499

bigmt
Posted on: Sep 27 2013, 12:40 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Sep 27 2013, 08:38 AM) *
Not for sure but I don't think I've seen anyone imply that the PDO may flip to it's positive "phase", just that it could go positive for a bit. It's normal for there to be periods of a +PDO during a 20-30 year -PDO phase. For instance the years 1958-1961 PDO went positive for 3 years during a -PDO phase. So, it's not uncommon. I "think" that's all that's being implied. Reference are to current states of PDO & where it may be during winter months, not prolonged phases.


Indeed, I did mention the possibility of brief forays into positive values in my post but I'd still put money on a continued -PDO for this upcoming winter without much evidence of an incoming Nino of respectable strength. During our current -PDO regime which started in late 07 we've been well rooted in negative territory with only a minor jaunt into positive values during the 09-10 El Nino.

CODE
2007**   0.01   0.04  -0.36   0.16  -0.10   0.09   0.78   0.50  -0.36  -1.45  -1.08  -0.58
2008**  -1.00  -0.77  -0.71  -1.52  -1.37  -1.34  -1.67  -1.70  -1.55  -1.76  -1.25  -0.87
2009**  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.08
2010**   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.21
2011**  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.79
2012**  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.48
2013**  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04


So essentially I'm not entirely ruling it out but a safe bet seems to be on a -PDO during this winter season for the moment. All sorts of other influences to consider as well, some potentially helpful and some not.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1761178 · Replies: · Views: 807,688

bigmt
Posted on: Sep 27 2013, 06:45 AM


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QUOTE(Weatherjunkie @ Sep 26 2013, 09:44 PM) *
This is certainly true, but the hope is that with an El-Nina it flips. It's certainly seen stronger days and there was a time in August and over the last few weeks where it looked like it could go positive. There's an interesting low pressure anomaly floating between 160-140W that has been there for a while. Same goes for 140-120W in the S. Pacific. Only time will tell.


I'm pretty skeptical of any sustained move towards positive. Since the 07 regime shift to a cold phase we've been fairly well entrenched in negative territory (outside of a modest blip during the 09-10 Nino event) and without another moderate-strong warm ENSO episode I'm not optimistic. The previous cool phase of the PDO lasted approximately 30 years from roughly 1945-1977 so we've probably got a long road to trek with only the occasional embedded positive spike to watch for.

This doesn't preclude decent winter weather for the east since many other factors are at play and a variety of good winter seasons have occurred during a -PDO if the other indices play ball; anyone ready to toss themselves off the cliff should take a few steps back and watch the other mitigating elements closely wink.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1761142 · Replies: · Views: 807,688

bigmt
Posted on: Sep 26 2013, 07:41 PM


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Back to an earlier subject, have another peek at the PDO domain:

Attached Image


Versus Sep 23rd:

Attached Image


Notice the difference? This is no +PDO.

Also, the requested August numbers - http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

CODE
2013**  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1761101 · Replies: · Views: 807,688

bigmt
Posted on: Sep 25 2013, 02:53 PM


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QUOTE(hbgweather @ Sep 25 2013, 10:25 AM) *
was there a winter where Canada (well at least central Canada) stayed above average in temps and the cold dove south around the warm and held the US in cooler/colder than normal temps?


09-10 might be a loose example of such a pattern:

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1760950 · Replies: · Views: 807,688

bigmt
Posted on: Sep 24 2013, 05:10 PM


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QUOTE(grace @ Sep 24 2013, 04:50 PM) *
Don't know but right now it looks like PDO is positive.


Typically a +PDO SST pattern would involve warmer anomalies along the west coast of NA wrapping around a central core of cooler ones which extend farther westward.

Attached Image


Attached Image


The horseshoe pattern is there to some extent but the pool of colder anomalies towards Asia is absent, in fact the anomalies there are some of the warmest relative to normal at the moment.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1760865 · Replies: · Views: 807,688

bigmt
Posted on: Sep 22 2013, 01:07 PM


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QUOTE(snow4ever @ Sep 22 2013, 11:32 AM) *
So...can someone point out differences between '09/'10 and '10/'11 as far as setups going into winter? Aug to Nov maybe? Trying to figure out what made '10/'11 almost 1/2 the snowfall as the winter before...seems east coast had 2 decent winters in a row...


ENSO state would be one significant difference but both winters had influences from impressive blocking episodes which played a major role in storminess along the coast.

Attached Image

Winter 09/10 @ 500mb:

Attached Image

Winter 10/11:

Attached Image

As for the preceding fall, here's the same comparison.

Fall 2009:

Attached Image

Fall 2010:

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1760664 · Replies: · Views: 807,688

bigmt
Posted on: Jan 17 2013, 09:01 AM


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CPC temp probabilities for February:

Attached Image

Precip probabilities for February:

Attached Image

Feb-Mar-Apr temp probabilities:

Attached Image

Feb-Mar-Apr precip probabilities:

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1664655 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 19 2012, 06:43 AM


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The latest JAMSTEC seasonal forecast is out.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...orecast.html.en

DJF Temps:

Attached Image


DJF Precip:

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1634099 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 14 2012, 09:47 AM


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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 14 2012, 09:20 AM) *
When Steve D says "collapsing" he means that it's rising.


It's definitely weaker than it was a month ago, but will that trend continue?

November 12:

Attached Image


December 13:

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1630136 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 13 2012, 09:05 AM


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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 13 2012, 08:55 AM) *
There's no question about it...it will remain negative for the most part. The only way the PNA is going to go positive for any lengthy time is for the PDO to spike. It has warmed a little but it had quiet the hole to climb out of.


November's reading was the second highest so far this year FWIW.

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

QUOTE
2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1629393 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 13 2012, 08:53 AM


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Here's another look at forecasts for the PNA and the also important but not oft-mentioned EPO.

Attached Image

Attached Image

The question is, does the PNA continue that rise or does it slip downwards again as we've seen multiple times thus far?
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1629383 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 11 2012, 09:09 AM


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Some help from the Pacific near the end of the month? Tenuous signalling at best but maybe something to watch over the next few days. At least things are headed in the right direction on the 00z guidance, although the PNA is still in the tank.

Attached Image

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1627822 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 10 2012, 03:13 PM


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QUOTE(so_whats_happening @ Dec 10 2012, 02:29 PM) *
Alright i have a question

I am trying to understand the QBO a little bit better.


The QBO refers to the gradually alternating easterly and westerly phases of a layer of winds in the stratosphere near the equator at an altitude of roughly 30 km which eventually propagate downwards towards the surface level. In terms of sensible winter weather, the easterly phase of the QBO is conducive to a more perturbed stratospheric vortex which leads to a generally more amplified wavelength pattern. So essentially a +QBO (westerly phase) tends to lock the polar vortex up and prevent or hinder blocking episodes.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the QBO is that it's one of the more predictable atmospheric cycles, oscillating at periods of roughly 25 months or so (give or take a few months).
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1627419 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 10 2012, 07:11 AM


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Brett Anderson's version of the Euro monthlies is up now on his blog.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...he-east/2558096

Attached Image

Attached Image

Attached Image

QUOTE
This forecast model has trended stormier from the Ohio Valley into the Northeast U.S. and up through eastern and Atlantic Canada for the remaining winter months of January, February and March combined, which could be good news for skiers, snowboarders, snowmobilers and winter resorts across the interior Northeast and up into eastern Canada.

The western Canadian ski resorts are already off to a very good start to the season. The updated forecast model shows typical winter conditions on average from January through March, but with solid bases as we speak we should expect a great ski season. Of note, the model has backed away from the persistent dry look it had from earlier runs over western BC and the Pacific Northwest, which is not that surprising since the earlier idea of a potential weak to moderate El Nino for the winter is no longer on the table.

Atlantic Canada looks mild, but stormy according to the latest ECMWF run and I agree with that.

One surprise for this update was the colder than normal temps showing up around the Great Lakes. If that idea is correct, and considering the expected jet stream pattern we could be looking at a significant uptick in lake-effect snow in January and February, especially since the lakes are still running warmer than normal.

Too hard to say what type of precipitation will dominate, but if the ECMWF has the general pattern right then I would lean toward more rain than snow along the East Coast and up into coastal Atlantic Canada, while snow would be favored on average from the northern Ohio Valley through the interior Northeast and up into Ontario, Quebec and New Brunswick.

The model has more of a -AO (negative Arctic Oscillation) look to it for this three-month period as it appears that the polar vortex is shifted farther south away from the pole and into north-central Canada. This usually ends up forcing the coldest air farther south than normal, while the region around the pole see's above-normal temperatures.

Again, keep in mind this is just one model and it is the extended long-range, but it is the model with the highest skill on average compared to the rest of the long-range models.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1627178 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 9 2012, 09:52 PM


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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Dec 9 2012, 09:45 PM) *
Adding to that, multiple forecasts available on the TIGGE site.


laugh.gif at the CMC! Talk about covering all the bases.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1627055 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 9 2012, 06:22 PM


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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Dec 9 2012, 04:44 PM) *
Last year we had both the +EPO and +NAO combo eliminate any signs of a winter with the PV going back and forth from Greenland to northern Canada to Alaska. This year it never got stuck in these areas while there's been more ridging in Greenland, which is an improvement, but as you said the Pacific is clearly the dominating force in this unfavorable pattern - with a strongly negative AO pattern with an occasionally negative NAO as well, one would typically think there is a cold and stormy (perhaps snowy) pattern going on, but the strong Pacific jet and the -PNA are basically leading to the opposite so far. The Pacific pattern has been quite stable as shown with the PNA changing very little over the last 1-2 months as well as the MJO still mostly around the COD, occasionally barely sneaking into phases 1-2-3.


It goes to show that we can't simply look at the NAO or AO and draw hard & fast conclusions from those indices alone without looking at the bigger picture. This is something that really bothers me about Margusity's interpretation of the pattern in his video blogs. He seems to constantly insist that a -NAO will cause huge storms to track up the east coast but virtually never mentions any of the other mitigating factors which is pretty misleading to the general public. Thankfully he's brought up the PNA over the last week or so which is good.

Doesn't look like there will be much help from the EPO in the near-term as it looks to go more strongly positive.

Attached Image

In terms of the MJO I'm in the 'show me the money' mode at this point. It's going to take some significant forcing to perturb this very stagnant -PNA pattern.

QUOTE
There are changes by the medium range and eventually I think the Pacific will also start to see at least some changes, with the PV moving from North America towards the other side of the globe at least according to some medium range guidance, as well as the MJO temporarily reaching weak-moderate phase 1 and the ongoing recovery of the WPO from strongly negative. I don't think it will be enough to flip the Pacific pattern with a +PNA/-EPO by the end of the month, and the Pacific will be the biggest obstacle IMO to those in the East hoping for cold and snow by the end of the month, although the central US may do better in this type of pattern. Perhaps in January we could finally see more significant changes in the Pacific, but given how stable the pattern there is, it's going to take time to break it.


I think this pattern is definitely more prone to shift as we head deeper into the winter than last year but I seriously question if it's going to give up it's very Nina-esque look and offer up more than fleeting chances for the majority of folks in the east who don't have latitude on their side. I hope I'm wrong for their sake.

QUOTE(Stratocumulus @ Dec 9 2012, 05:12 PM) *
Welcome to the -PDO! Remember the PNA and PDO have a correlation of about 0.8 for all years, and about 0.9 once El Nino years are removed. Now, the PNA is more variable than the PDO, but still the -PDO should generally tend to favor a -PNA regime for the winter.


I agree but we should also keep in mind that the general thinking is that we entered the -PDO phase roughly around 2008 and there have been some decent years since then if the other teleconnections play ball and blocking orients itself properly. I wouldn't describe a -PDO as a death nail for the east. Some very good winters have occurred during past negative phases if the other elements cooperate.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1626971 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 9 2012, 04:32 PM


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QUOTE(telejunkie @ Dec 9 2012, 04:02 PM) *
isn't that what we easterners said all last winter regarding the NAO?


I see your point but eventually the back of the +NAO was broken; it just wasn't in time to save the winter. We've experienced much more in the way of a -NAO since then, not that it was really helpful other than to steer Sandy into the coast which I doubt anyone wanted to see. In general I think too much emphasis has been placed on the NAO (understandable since it played such a strong part in 09/10 and portions of 10/11) and we've lost sight of how large a role the Pacific pattern can play. This was my point about the switch to an ongoing -PDO phase in an earlier post. It didn't seem as big a deal when the Atlantic blocking was favourable but now we could be seeing how the Pacific side of the equation can take the steering wheel and really dominate things.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1626893 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 9 2012, 02:47 PM


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QUOTE(MarylandChris8 @ Dec 9 2012, 12:54 PM) *
Good God how long will this -PNA pattern last? I'm starting to feel like it will be as dominant as the +NAO/AO was all last year. I should've seen this coming with a -PDO and no El Nino in sight. Once again, for the 3rd year, we are seeing La Nina influences on our winter, and good grief do La Nina's suck for everyone wishing for cold/snow. It just seems like nothing can go right. We couldn't get our El Nino like we were practically guaranteed last spring, the NAO/AO haven't been terrible (we've already seen the NAO go deeply negative and the AO is currently deeply negative), but the -PNA is destroying us all.


That's the really aggravating part about the whole thing. There's a heckuva lot more in the way of movement from the NAO and AO compared to last winter but it feels like a wasted opportunity with the PNA simply refusing to play ball. On the other hand, this could be better down the road than if the PNA had spiked positive for the early days of winter and then locked into this unrelenting negative phase when January rolled in.

If the blocking would orient itself in a decent fashion the -PNA might not be terrible for New England but it's less than ideal for points south. Just gotta believe there's no way it stays this stagnant all the way into February.
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1626837 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 9 2012, 10:50 AM


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Good grief, how long can this go on? One would hope it has to snap back eventually.

Attached Image
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1626708 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

bigmt
Posted on: Dec 8 2012, 08:03 PM


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Not a regular on the US side of the forums, but I wanted to check in and share a few thoughts if you don't mind. a few things I would be looking for in terms of wintry chances for the Eastern USA:

1) A beatdown of the SE ridge. It's good for some of us in Canada but it's ugly in terms of allowing the storm track to shift offshore and deliver more in terms of snow for the coastal states. This is typically associated with a Nina pattern so perhaps it's won't be as stagnant without a cold ENSO state.

2) A believable west-based NAO which isn't transient. There have been on-again off-again signals for this but it never really looks like more than a fleeting appearance.

2) Some indications of a switch to a +PNA. This has been a very stable -PNA pattern which helps to pump heights in the east. One would think that this would have to reverse at some point since it's been such a prolonged period without even a blip towards positive territory.

You can see how all of these factors combined really makes the pattern an ugly mess. The NAO is so flaky that I wouldn't put a lot of faith in it but I would think the other two factors could make some kind of serious move before the winter season is over. I don't know what the record for the # of days in a deep -PNA is but this has been a thorn for quite a while now. I don't think it can last forever. I've sorta been mulling over the idea that the switch to a neg PDO phase has been vastly underestimated by a good deal of forecasters but that's just my opinion.

Brett Anderson has mentioned on his Twitter feed (https://twitter.com/BrettAWX) that he will post maps of the Euro monthlies this coming Monday which will no doubt be of interest to everyone in NA so that's something to look forward to. He gave away a few tidbits on Twitter if you'd like to take a peek.

Best of luck to all of our American neighbours from north of the border! smile.gif
  Forum: Long-Range U.S. Forecasts · Post Preview: #1626440 · Replies: · Views: 1,254,345

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