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> Caribbean Tropical Development 2018, Invest Formation ONLY - Waves, LP's
Undertakerson
post May 19 2018, 07:12 AM
Post #21




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QUOTE
Latest guidance still offers very diverse possibilities for low
pressure that may track out of the northwestern Caribbean. GEFS
members have tended to be on the fast/eastern side of the spread
while CMC runs have also been fairly progressive but on the
western side of the envelope. Combined uncertainties including
degree/depth of development determining what level of steering
flow will have greatest influence at a particular time, along with
evolution/position of forecast upper troughing over the southern
U.S./Gulf of Mexico, lead to continued very low confidence for
details of this feature.


http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd


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Undertakerson
post May 19 2018, 07:15 AM
Post #22




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stretchct
post Yesterday, 01:28 PM
Post #23




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Posting all images here, though the euro and Fv3gfs spin up in the gulf.
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My Wunderground station
weather in my area and winter storm/hurricane model analysis



First STW: May 3rd (no T-storm imby)
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First 80+ day: May 2, 89.2
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MaineJay
post Yesterday, 02:28 PM
Post #24




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20.0z ensemble based probabilities, NCEP, ECMWF, and CMC.

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http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/


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