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> February 9th-11th MidAtl/Northeast DKBIII Blizzard, Cogitation: Short Range [0-3 Days Out]
Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2017, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 04:02 PM) *
Further south of li, not as close to the coast, goes to the bm, not inside

Well then, since you know exactly how this tracks - you suggesting others pack it in and call it a day?

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 8 2017, 04:05 PM
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Feb 8 2017, 04:04 PM
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QUOTE(Snowadelphia @ Feb 8 2017, 03:45 PM) *
This is great news for my next snowboarding adventure at Elk Mountain

Oh for sure !
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JwolfPA
post Feb 8 2017, 04:05 PM
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Lurking as usual but just wanted to say God bless to all the "informative regulars" on here. I don't know how you keep your cool with some of these posts... Looking forward to what the HRRR thinks in 6 hours or so. Hopefully the puppy wakes me up in the normal time range 4-5am and I can get an obs post in with a pic. Back to lurking for now
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Miller A
post Feb 8 2017, 04:05 PM
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QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Feb 8 2017, 03:35 PM) *
12Z Hi-Res ARW


I just let out a gasp when I saw this. The mint stripe has not gone through Sussex in NWNJ this close to an event in recent memory.

LUCC, are you seeing this?


--------------------
TOTAL 2016-17: 52.75"
TOTAL 2015-16: 17.90"
TOTAL 2014-15: 51.10"
TOTAL 2013-14: 62.10"
TOTAL 2012-13: 46.00"
TOTAL 2011-12: 18.05"
TOTAL 2010-11: 52.40"
TOTAL 2009-10: 64.00"

같같같같같같같같같같같같같같같
Alt 248 = degrees symbol
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ionizer
post Feb 8 2017, 04:06 PM
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QUOTE(Miller A @ Feb 8 2017, 04:00 PM) *


weird, for freehold, nj they say
most likely 8-12"

but then say
"potential for this much = 11"
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stilko4
post Feb 8 2017, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 04:04 PM) *
Well then, since you know exactly how this tracks - you suggesting others pack it in and call it a day?


Never said that... just saying the guy said don't model hug....seems that most inlanders from PA areal hugging the nam as its the furthest north and spreads heavy snow to them. Euro, gfs, rgem a bit south, more tucked in...
No matter what most are getting 8 plus in a very short time


--------------------
Long Island - best place to live, period

snowfall for Syosset (north shore nassau county)

winter 13-14 ~ 66

winter 12-13
total snow - 45"

winter 11-12 (the winter that never was)
total snow for syosset ~ 3"

winter 10-11
total snow for syosset ~ 63"

winter 09-10
snowfall - 59.5"
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rtcemc
post Feb 8 2017, 04:08 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 03:54 PM) *
Seems like all of the inlanders, esp the pa people, have been hugging the nam saying it's right, borderline wishcasting.

Most models are south of nam

Yes, and some others are hugging whatever one shows the highest. Same issue as when someone sees 4 -8. They only see 8. I look to be in a really good spot here, and I still will be happy if only get 3-6.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2017, 04:09 PM
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QUOTE(JwolfPA @ Feb 8 2017, 04:05 PM) *
Lurking as usual but just wanted to say God bless to all the "informative regulars" on here. I don't know how you keep your cool with some of these posts... Looking forward to what the HRRR thinks in 6 hours or so. Hopefully the puppy wakes me up in the normal time range 4-5am and I can get an obs post in with a pic. Back to lurking for now

Thanks man, really appreciate it.

We don't know either, sometimes. laugh.gif

I hope this one is all that you hope it will be (whatever that may be)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Feb 8 2017, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 06:08 PM) *
Never said that... just saying the guy said don't model hug....seems that most inlanders from PA areal hugging the nam as its the furthest north and spreads heavy snow to them. Euro, gfs, rgem a bit south, more tucked in...
No matter what most are getting 8 plus in a very short time

To be honest it really depends on how quickly that front moves based off extrapolation it looks to cross right over DC area and southern tip of NJ based off of how quickly that front is moving, which seems to be not all too quick.


--------------------
Tylor Cartter

B.S. in Meteorology
Millersville University


Weather Observer:
KMDT: Harrisburg International Airport
KBWI: Baltimore/ Washington International Airport

Stratosphere Discussion:
2016/2017


AccuWeather Forum MidAtl/NE Snowfall Forecasting Champion Winter 2017
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rtcemc
post Feb 8 2017, 04:11 PM
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Guys, think you are misreading what Stilk was saying. I don't think he was busting.
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Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2017, 04:11 PM
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QUOTE(stilko4 @ Feb 8 2017, 04:08 PM) *
Never said that... just saying the guy said don't model hug....seems that most inlanders from PA areal hugging the nam as its the furthest north and spreads heavy snow to them. Euro, gfs, rgem a bit south, more tucked in...
No matter what most are getting 8 plus in a very short time

OK - got it.

We don't know where this is going and it is very unwise to hug any solution - good or bad.

Most of us regulars have been harping that all afternoon.

So, I believe we are on the same page - actually. I apologize for thinking otherwise.
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Ryan Duff
post Feb 8 2017, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(phils1 @ Feb 8 2017, 03:42 PM) *


blink.gif

Launching a rocket to the moon? blink.gif


--------------------
M.O.M. Certified (Inaugural Class of Winter 2015-2016)

"You must stick to your conviction, but be ready to abandon your assumptions."

Current Elevation: 30' ASL
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Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2017, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 04:11 PM) *
Guys, think you are misreading what Stilk was saying. I don't think he was busting.

Hey - back off. I did my "mea culpa" laugh.gif laugh.gif

(marks down one of the few times I was wrong --- this week) laugh.gif
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Reggies31
post Feb 8 2017, 04:13 PM
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for PHL I am a little worried about the nam because I've gotten burned by it before and these type of changover situations typically aren't good for snow in the 215. However, if the rate is for real as modeled then we will see 6+. Changeover delay and a lesser rate quickly puts us in 2-5. Quicker changeover and higher rates (like what the RAP shows) and we are in the 8-14 band.
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StormTracker
post Feb 8 2017, 04:14 PM
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QUOTE(Reggies31 @ Feb 8 2017, 04:13 PM) *
for PHL I am a little worried about the nam because I've gotten burned by it before and these type of changover situations typically aren't good for snow in the 215. However, if the rate is for real as modeled then we will see 6+. Changeover delay and a lesser rate quickly puts us in 2-5. Quicker changeover and higher rates (like what the RAP shows) and we are in the 8-14 band.

Nice breakdown
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JwolfPA
post Feb 8 2017, 04:16 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 04:09 PM) *
Thanks man, really appreciate it.

We don't know either, sometimes. laugh.gif

I hope this one is all that you hope it will be (whatever that may be)



I'm that friend all my friends ask about the weather as most on here are I assume and I've stuck with my 4 to 8 call which seems safe for my area. No ones every mad at you when they get more.
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UMFKgrad02
post Feb 8 2017, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(krayzbone227 @ Feb 8 2017, 04:47 PM) *
I'm bullseyed.

Yup looks like a Philly burbs crush job wink.gif
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StormTracker
post Feb 8 2017, 04:17 PM
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Just dropped to 59 in NW philly
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rtcemc
post Feb 8 2017, 04:18 PM
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QUOTE(Undertakerson @ Feb 8 2017, 04:12 PM) *
Hey - back off. I did my "mea culpa" laugh.gif laugh.gif

(marks down one of the few times I was wrong --- this week) laugh.gif

yea, typed before your response. Sorry laugh.gif
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Undertakerson
post Feb 8 2017, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(rtcemc @ Feb 8 2017, 04:18 PM) *
yea, typed before your response. Sorry laugh.gif

My compadre. biggrin.gif
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